Hui Guo

University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate

Professor of Finance

College of Business

418 Carl H. Lindner Hall

Cincinnati, OH 45221

United States

http://homepages.uc.edu/~guohu/

  • University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate

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    • Tel: 513.556.7077
    • Fax: 513.556.0979
SCHOLARLY PAPERS

47

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Scholarly Papers (47)

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1.

Understanding Stock Return Predictability

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2006-019B
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 15 Apr 2006
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 1,122 (26,478)

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Stock Return Predictability, Average Idiosyncratic Variance, Stock Market Variance, Discount-Rate Shock, Cash-Flow Shock, CAPM, and ICAPM

2.

Good Jumps, Bad Jumps, and Conditional Equity Premium

Asian Finance Association (AsianFA) 2014 Conference Paper, PBCSF-NIFR Research Paper No. 14-05
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 27 Oct 2014 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2019
Hui Guo, Kent Wang and Hao Zhou
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, University of Queensland and SUSTech Business School
Downloads 1,105 (27,113)
Citation 5

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Realized Jump Risk, Good and Bad Jumps, Conditional Equity Premium, Downside Economic Uncertainty, Variance Risk Premium.

3.

Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 08 Mar 2004
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 923 (34,987)
Citation 25

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Idiosyncratic stock volatility, stock market volatility, consumption-wealth ratio,stock return predictability, out-of-sample forecast, stock market timing strategies, and portfolio choices

4.

On the Relation between EGARCH Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 18 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2014
Hui Guo, Haim Kassa and Michael F. Ferguson
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Miami University and University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 670 (54,001)
Citation 14

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EGARCH, idiosyncratic volatility, cross-section of stock returns

5.

Market Timing with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Stock Volatilities

FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 2005-073A
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 14 Dec 2005
Hui Guo and Jason Higbee
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division
Downloads 625 (59,005)

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Stock return predictability, Market timing, Stock market volatility, Idiosyncratic volatility

6.

Relation between Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Effects of Idiosyncratic Variance on Stock Returns

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2006-036A
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 09 Apr 2010
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 617 (59,977)
Citation 7

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Stock return predictability, Average idiosyncratic variance, Stock market variance, Cross-section of stock returns, Value premium, CAPM

7.

Options-Implied Variance and Future Stock Returns

Downloads 503 ( 77,472)
Citation 3

Options-Implied Variance and Future Stock Returns

Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 44, July 2014, Pages 93-113.
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 20 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 17 May 2014
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 337 (122,314)
Citation 4

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stock return predictability, implied variance, realized variance, CAPM, and ICAPM

Options-Implied Variance and Future Stock Returns

Number of pages: 77 Posted: 21 Mar 2011 Last Revised: 17 May 2014
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 166 (242,930)

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stock return predictability, implied variance, realized variance, CAPM and ICAPM

8.

Equity Market Volatility and Expected Risk Premium

Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis Working Paper No. 2006-007
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 31 Jan 2006
Long Chen, Long Chen, Hui Guo and Lu Zhang
Cheung Kong Graduate School of BusinessLuohan Academy, University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Ohio State University - Fisher College of Business
Downloads 494 (79,200)
Citation 1

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Expected return, equity market volatility, systematic risk, yield spreads

9.

On the Out-of-Sample Predictability of Stock Market Returns

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 25 Jun 2002
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 465 (85,244)
Citation 24

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Stock Return Predictability, Portfolio Choice

10.

Understanding the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Market

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 19 Dec 2001
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 436 (91,837)

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Risk-Return Tradeoff, Hedge Component of Excess Returns

11.

Average Idiosyncratic Volatility in G7 Countries

Downloads 412 ( 98,098)
Citation 24

Average Idiosyncratic Volatility in G7 Countries

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2004-027C
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 08 Nov 2004
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 412 (97,265)
Citation 24

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Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, Value Premium, Stock Return Predictability, ICAPM, Unit Root, Deterministic Trend, Granger Causality

Average Idiosyncratic Volatility in G7 Countries

The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 21, Issue 3, pp. 1259-1296, 2008
Posted: 02 Jul 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance

Abstract:

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G1

12.

Foreign Exchange Rates Don't Follow a Random Walk

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 17 Mar 2005
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 410 (98,691)
Citation 2

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Exchange rate predictability, average idiosyncratic volatility, monetary model

13.

ICAPM and the Accruals Anomaly

Quarterly Journal of Finance (forthcoming)
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 04 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 02 Sep 2020
Hui Guo and Paulo F. Maio
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Hanken School of Economics - Department of Finance and Statistics
Downloads 404 (100,376)
Citation 4

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Accruals anomaly; Asset pricing; Term spread; Value spread; Intertemporal CAPM

14.

Is Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities: Some Time Series Evidence

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2005-026B
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 17 Mar 2005
Hui Guo, Zijun Wang, Robert Savickas and Jian Yang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Texas A&M University, George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance and University of Colorado at Denver - Business School
Downloads 387 (105,463)
Citation 7

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CAPM, ICAPM, Fama and French Three Factors, Stock Market Return Predictability, Realized Volatility, and GARCH, Value Premium

15.

IPO First-Day Return and Ex Ante Equity Premium

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 21 Mar 2008
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 375 (109,277)
Citation 3

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IPO, Equity Premium, Stock Return Predictability, Risk-Return Relation

16.

Market Illiquidity and Conditional Equity Premium

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 24 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 09 Oct 2016
Hui Guo, Sandra Mortal, Robert Savickas and Robert Wood
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, University of Alabama - Culverhouse College of Commerce & Business Administration, George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance and University of Memphis - Fogelman College of Business and Economics
Downloads 374 (109,590)
Citation 1

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liquidity, stock return predictability, conditional equity premium

17.

Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment

Downloads 316 (131,514)

Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming; 8th Conference on Financial Markets and Corporate Governance (FMCG) 2017
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 21 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2021
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 192 (214,149)

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Aggregate Corporate Investment, Return on Assets, Aggregate Corporate Profitability, Conditional Equity Premium, Market Variance, Aggregate Idiosyncratic Variance, Tobin’s q, Investor Sentiment, Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model

Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming
Number of pages: 85 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2021
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 124 (306,731)
Citation 1

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Aggregate Corporate Investment, Return on Assets, Aggregate Corporate Profitability, Conditional Equity Premium, Market Variance, Aggregate Idiosyncratic Variance, Tobin’s q, Investor Sentiment, Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model

18.

Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 13 Aug 2002
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 293 (142,515)
Citation 8

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Stock Return Predictability, Time-varying Investment Opportunities, Asset Pricing, and Cross Section of Stock Returns

19.

Limited Stock Market Participation and Asset Prices in a Dynamic Economy

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 12 Jun 2003
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 291 (143,533)
Citation 10

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limited stock market participation, borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, equity premium puzzle, excess volatility, stock return predictability, risk-return tradeoff in stock market, leverage effect, volatility feedback effect.

20.

Uncovering the Risk Return Relation in the Stock Market

Downloads 271 (154,339)
Citation 119

Uncovering the Risk Return Relation in the Stock Market

NYU Working Paper No. SC-AM-03-06
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 04 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 119 (316,293)
Citation 3

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Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market

NYU Working Paper No. FIN-03-021
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 11 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 59 (483,817)
Citation 33

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Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market

NBER Working Paper No. w9927
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 25 Aug 2003 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2022
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 49 (526,806)
Citation 12

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Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market

NYU Working Paper No. S-MF-03-11
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 12 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 44 (551,109)

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21.

Informed Trading, Earnings Surprises, and Stock Returns

2010 CRSP Forum
Number of pages: 72 Posted: 08 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2012
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 266 (157,274)

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22.

Time-Varying Beta and the Value Premium: A Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model Approach

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 06 Mar 2015
Hui Guo, Chaojiang Wu and Yan Yu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Drexel University and University of Cincinnati - Department of Business Analytics
Downloads 249 (167,944)
Citation 3

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Conditional CAPM, Penalized Splines, Single-Index Models, Value Premium, Variable Selection

23.

Stock Prices, Firm Size, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Target

FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 2002-004A
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 20 Feb 2002
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 244 (171,214)
Citation 6

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monetary transmission, credit market imperfection, changes in federal funds rate target

24.

A Novel Measure of Conditional Value Premium

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 19 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2015
Qing Bai and Hui Guo
Dickinson College and University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 228 (182,739)

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Value premium, stock split, present-value relation, and stock return predictability

25.

Is Foreign Exchange Delta Hedging Risk Priced?

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2004-029A
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 13 Jan 2005
Hui Guo and Christopher J. Neely
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division
Downloads 224 (185,759)
Citation 2

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Exchange rate, option, implied volatility, realized volatility, asset pricing

26.

On the Cross Section of Conditionally Expected Stock Returns

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 08 Mar 2004
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 216 (192,264)
Citation 1

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Stock Return Predictability, Cross Section of Stock Returns, Size Premium, Value Premium, and Momentum Profit

27.

A Better Measure of Institutional Informed Trading

Contemporary Accounting Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 14 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 18 Jul 2014
Hui Guo and Buhui Qiu
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Sydney Business School
Downloads 211 (196,500)
Citation 1

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PC_NII, Informed Trading, Earnings Surprises, Stock Returns

28.

Accruals and Conditional Equity Premium*

AAA 2009 Financial Accounting and Reporting Section (FARS) Paper
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 13 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2010
Hui Guo, Xiaowen Jiang and Xiaowen Jiang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Wayne State University - School of Business AdministrationWestern Connecticut State University - Ancell School of Business
Downloads 206 (200,977)
Citation 1

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Accruals, Conditional equity premium, Asset pricing

29.

Time-Varying Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Market

Forthcoming at JMCB
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 08 Aug 2006 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2012
Hui Guo, Zijun Wang and Jian Yang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Texas A&M University and University of Colorado at Denver - Business School
Downloads 202 (204,639)
Citation 9

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Habit Formation, Time-Varying Risk Aversion, Countercyclical Sharpe Ratio, Limited Stock Market Participation, Illiquidity Premium, ICAPM, Conditional CAPM, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models

30.

Investigating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation in International Stock Markets with the Component GARCH Model

Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis Working Paper No. 2006-006
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 31 Jan 2006
Hui Guo and Christopher J. Neely
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division
Downloads 190 (216,228)
Citation 7

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GARCH-in-mean, Component GARCH, Risk-return relation, International stock market returns

31.

Is Foreign Exchange Volatility Risk Priced?

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2004-029C
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 27 May 2006
Hui Guo, Christopher J. Neely and Jason Higbee
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division
Downloads 180 (226,506)

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exchange rate, option, implied volatility, realized volatility, asset pricing

32.

Idiosyncratic Volatility, Economic Fundamentals, and Foreign Exchange Rates

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2005-025B
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 17 May 2006
Hui Guo and Robert Savickas
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance
Downloads 166 (242,597)

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exchange rate predictability, average idiosyncratic volatility, monetary model, bootstrap, data mining

33.

Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns

Journal of Banking and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Aug 2015 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2021
Hui Guo, Xiaowen Jiang and Xiaowen Jiang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Wayne State University - School of Business AdministrationWestern Connecticut State University - Ancell School of Business
Downloads 143 (274,135)

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financial distress risk; default probability; conditional equity premium; stock market return predictability; idiosyncratic risk; and financial leverage

34.

Foreign Exchange Volatility is Priced in Equities

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2004-029E
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 24 Jul 2006
Hui Guo, Christopher J. Neely and Jason Higbee
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division
Downloads 143 (274,135)
Citation 4

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exchange rate, option, implied volatility, realized volatility, asset pricing

35.

On the Stock Market Variance-Return or Price Relations: A Tale of Fear and Euphoria

Number of pages: 116 Posted: 26 Mar 2018 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2021
Hui Guo, Qian Lin and Yu-Jou Pai
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Wuhan University - School of Economics and Management and Concordia University
Downloads 142 (275,584)
Citation 1

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Stock Market Variance, Good Variance, Bad Variance, Conditional Equity Premium, Stock Market Return Predicability, and Anomalies

36.

Multi-Factor Conditional Equity Premium Model: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

Number of pages: 79 Posted: 12 Sep 2018 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2021
Hang Cheng, Hui Guo and Yongdong Shi
DUFE, University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Dongbei University of Finance and Economics (DUFE)
Downloads 138 (281,756)
Citation 2

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China's stock market; Risk-Return Tradeoff; Time-Varying Equity Premium; Time-Varying Stock Market Variance; Limited Stock Market Participation; A Shares; B Shares; H Shares

37.

Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities: Some Time Series Evidence

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 24 Oct 2006
Hui Guo, Zijun Wang, Robert Savickas and Jian Yang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate, Texas A&M University, George Washington University - School of Business - Department of Finance and University of Colorado at Denver - Business School
Downloads 138 (281,756)
Citation 3

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ICAPM, value premium, stock return predictability, realized variance, and GARCH

38.

Risk and Return: Some New Evidence

Downloads 137 (283,321)

Risk and Return: Some New Evidence

NYU Working Paper No. S-AM-00-05
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 13 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 61 (475,801)

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Risk and Return: Some New Evidence.

NYU Working Paper No. FIN-00-020
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 04 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 43 (556,180)

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Risk and Return: Some New Evidence

NYU Working Paper No. S-MF-00-08
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 12 Nov 2008
Hui Guo and Robert Whitelaw
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and New York University
Downloads 33 (612,263)

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39.

International Transmission of Inflation Among G-7 Countries: A Data-Determined VAR Analysis

Journal of Banking and Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 29 Jul 2005
Jian Yang, Hui Guo and Zijun Wang
University of Colorado at Denver - Business School, University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Texas A&M University
Downloads 122 (308,996)
Citation 1

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Inflation transmission, directed acyclic graphs, forecast error variance decomposition, recursive estimation, impulse responses

40.

Accruals and Conditional Equity Premium

Journal of Accounting Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 24 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 19 Oct 2010
Hui Guo, Xiaowen Jiang and Xiaowen Jiang
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Wayne State University - School of Business AdministrationWestern Connecticut State University - Ancell School of Business
Downloads 116 (320,297)
Citation 1

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Accruals, Earnings, Stock Return Predictability, Market Efficiency

41.

The Risk-Return Relation Puzzle

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 01 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2021
Hui Guo and Yu-Jou Pai
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Concordia University
Downloads 94 (371,017)

Abstract:

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42.

On the Risk-Return Relation in International Stock Markets, Forthcoming

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2003-012C
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 23 May 2006
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 82 (400,351)

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Capital market integration, stock return predictability, out-of-sample forecasts

43.

Rediscovering the CCAPM Lost in Data Revisions

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 15 Oct 2019 Last Revised: 04 Aug 2020
Hui Guo and Yu-Jou Pai
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Concordia University
Downloads 70 (437,263)
Citation 1

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Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model, Anomalies, Real-Time Data, Data Revisions, Macroeconomic Risk

44.

Systematic Mispricing: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2022
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 14 Apr 2022
Shaun A. Bond, Hui Guo and Changyu Yang
UQ Business School, University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and University of Wisconsin - La Crosse
Downloads 47 (526,353)

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mispricing, financial intermediaries, limited participation, REITs

45.

In Search of Habits Lost in Revisions

Number of pages: 84 Posted: 01 Sep 2021 Last Revised: 08 Mar 2022
Hui Guo and Yu-Jou Pai
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate and Concordia University
Downloads 45 (535,484)

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Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model, Countercyclical Conditional Equity Premium, Surplus Consumption Ratio, Stock Market Return Predictability, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Real-Time Data, Data Revisions

46.

Data Revisions and Out-of-Sample Stock Return Predictability

Economic Inquiry, Vol. 47, Issue 1, pp. 81-97, January 2009
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Jan 2009
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Downloads 3 (832,079)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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47.

The Risk-Return Relation in International Stock Markets

Financial Review, Vol. 41, No. 4, November 2006
Posted: 16 Aug 2006
Hui Guo
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate

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capital market integration, stock return predictability, out-of-sample forecasts