Wolfgang Drobetz

Hamburg University

Professor of Finance

Moorweidenstrasse 18

Hamburg, 20148

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

51

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195

Scholarly Papers (51)

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

ECGI - Finance Working Paper No. 11/2003
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 19 Feb 2003
Wolfgang Drobetz, Andreas Schillhofer and Heinz Zimmermann
Hamburg University, Greenhill & Co. and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 3,566 (2,494)
Citation 65

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Corporate Governance, principal-agent theory, asset pricing

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

EFMA 2003 Helsinki Meetings
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 05 May 2003
Wolfgang Drobetz, Andreas Schillhofer and Heinz Zimmermann
Hamburg University, Greenhill & Co. and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 958 (21,513)
Citation 65

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corporate governance, principal-agent theory, asset pricing

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

European Financial Management, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 267-293, June 2004
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Jun 2004
Wolfgang Drobetz, Andreas Schillhofer and Heinz Zimmermann
Hamburg University, Greenhill & Co. and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 29 (465,493)
Citation 65
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2.

An Integrated Framework of Corporate Governance and Firm Valuation - Evidence from Switzerland

ECGI - Finance Working Paper No. 34/2004
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 27 Jan 2004
University of Basel, Hamburg University, University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 3,080 (3,287)
Citation 20

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Corporate governance; Ownership structure; Firm valuation; Endogeneity

3.

Capital Structure and Stock Returns: The European Evidence

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Jan 2007
Wolfgang Drobetz and Pascal Pensa
Hamburg University and University of Basel - Department of Finance
Downloads 999 (20,591)

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Capital structure, dynamic adjustment, panel models

4.

Firm Characteristics and Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 19 Dec 2006
Wolfgang Drobetz, Pascal Pensa and Gabrielle Wanzenried
Hamburg University, University of Basel - Department of Finance and Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen Zug (IFZ)
Downloads 869 (25,229)
Citation 2

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Capital structure, dynamic analysis, panel data

An Integrated Framework of Corporate Governance and Firm Valuation

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 01 Aug 2005
University of Basel, University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, Hamburg University and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 721 (32,226)
Citation 63

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Corporate governance, principal-agent problems, ownership structure, firm valuation, endogeneity

An Integrated Framework of Corporate Governance and Firm Valuation

European Financial Management, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 249-283, March 2006
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 08 May 2006
University of Basel, University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, Hamburg University and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 17 (536,626)
Citation 63
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6.

Firm Characteristics, Economic Conditions and Capital Structure Adjustments

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 14 Aug 2006
Wolfgang Drobetz, Pascal Pensa and Gabrielle Wanzenried
Hamburg University, University of Basel - Department of Finance and Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen Zug (IFZ)
Downloads 695 (34,380)
Citation 4

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Capital Structure, dynamic analysis, panel data

7.

Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Evidence for Switzerland

Number of pages: 69 Posted: 20 Feb 2003
Wolfgang Drobetz, Matthias Kammermann and Urs Waelchli
Hamburg University, Independent and Rochester-Bern Executive Programs
Downloads 634 (38,884)
Citation 9

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initial public offerings, underpricing, long-run stock performance, market efficiency, Swiss stock market

8.

Corporate Life-Cycle Dynamics of Cash Holdings

Swedish House of Finance Research Paper No. 15-07, 28th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 15 Mar 2015 Last Revised: 28 Jul 2016
Wolfgang Drobetz, Michael Halling and Henning Schröder
Hamburg University, Stockholm School of Economics & Swedish House of Finance and University of Hamburg
Downloads 560 (45,759)

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Corporate life-cycle, cash holdings, value of cash

9.

Long-Term Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Evidence for Switzerland

Schmalenbach Business Review, Vol. 57, pp. 253-275, July 2005
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 16 Aug 2005
Wolfgang Drobetz, Matthias Kammermann and Urs Waelchli
Hamburg University, Independent and Rochester-Bern Executive Programs
Downloads 555 (46,262)
Citation 9

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Initial Public Offerings, Long-Run Stock Performance, Market Efficiency, Swiss Stock Market, Underpricing

10.

Industry Expert Directors

University of St.Gallen, School of Finance Research Paper No. 2014/01, 28th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 27 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 11 May 2017
Hamburg University, University of St. Gallen - School of Finance, University of Zurich and University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance
Downloads 544 (47,438)

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Board of directors, Director skills and experience, Corporate governance, Corporate Investments

11.

The Impact of Credit Rating Changes on Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from Non-Listed Firms in Germany

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 10 Feb 2014
Wolfgang Drobetz and Sascha Heller
Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 524 (49,809)

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capital structure, financing decisions, speed of adjustment, credit ratings, non-listed companies

12.

Testing Rebalancing Strategies for Stock-Bond Portfolios Across Different Asset Allocations

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 13 Aug 2014
Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Martin Wambach
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 513 (51,152)

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rebalancing, stock-bond portfolio, bootstrap, statistical inference

Determinants of Management Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Global Shipping IPOs

European Financial Management, 23, 2017, pp 975-1015
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 25 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 24 Sep 2018
Hamburg University, University of Bath, University of Piraeus and American College of Greece (DEREE)
Downloads 430 (63,073)

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Earnings management, voluntary disclosure environment, forecast accuracy, IPOs

Determinants of Management Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Global Shipping IPOs

European Financial Management, Vol. 23, Issue 5, pp. 975-1015, 2017
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 05 Nov 2017
Hamburg University, University of Bath, American College of Greece (DEREE) and University of Piraeus
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earnings management, voluntary disclosure environment, forecast accuracy, IPOs

14.

Testing Rebalancing Strategies for Stock-Bond Portfolios: Where Is the Value Added of Rebalancing?

Midwest Finance Association 2012 Annual Meetings Paper , 2012 European Financial Management Symposium on Asset Management , 2012 Kölner Finanzmarktkolloquium on Asset Management
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 15 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 11 Aug 2015
Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Martin Wambach
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 407 (68,071)

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rebalancing, bootstrap, performance measurement, statistical inference, stock-bond portfolio

15.

Sell in May and Go Away: Still Good Advice for Investors?

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 21 May 2014
Hubert Dichtl and Wolfgang Drobetz
dichtl research & consulting GmbH and Hamburg University
Downloads 391 (71,297)

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Sell in May, Halloween effect, bootstrap simulation, statistical inference, investment strategy

16.

What Factors Drive Corporate Credit Ratings? Evidence from German SMEs and Large Corporates

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 10 Feb 2014 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2014
Wolfgang Drobetz and Sascha Heller
Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 325 (88,326)

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corporate rating, creditworthiness, rating agencies, determinants, financial risk, business risk

17.

Investing in Gold - Market Timing or Buy-and-Hold?

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 17 Jul 2018 Last Revised: 15 Nov 2018
University of Western Australia - Business School, dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 315 (91,447)

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gold; market efficiency; investment strategies; monthly seasonalities; fundamental factors; technical indicators; superior predictive ability test

18.

Data Snooping in Equity Premium Prediction

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 May 2017 Last Revised: 20 Jan 2019
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University, University of Notre Dame - Department of Finance and University of Hamburg
Downloads 307 (94,130)

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Equity risk premium prediction, data snooping bias

19.

A Bootstrap-Based Comparison of Portfolio Insurance Strategies

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 06 Oct 2013 Last Revised: 14 Jun 2014
Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Martin Wambach
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 296 (97,896)

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Portfolio insurance strategies, Omega ratio, bootstrap simulation, Monte Carlo simulation

20.

Do Alternative UCITS Deliver What They Promise? A Comparison of Alternative UCITS and Hedge Funds

Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 24, No. 14, 2014
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Nov 2013
Michael Busack, Wolfgang Drobetz and Jan Tille
Absolut Research GmbH, Hamburg University and Absolut Research GmbH
Downloads 275 (105,880)

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Alternative mutual funds, UCITS funds, Hedge funds, Performance measurement

21.

How does the Enforcement of Takeover Law Affect Corporate Acquisitions? An Inductive Approach

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 30 May 2016 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2019
University of Cambridge - Judge Business School, Hamburg University, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and ESMT European School of Management and Technology
Downloads 258 (113,277)

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Mergers and acquisitions, acquirer returns, law and finance, takeover law, law enforcement

22.

Timing the Stock Market: Does it Really Make No Sense?

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 29 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 11 Aug 2015
Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Lawrence Kryzanowski
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and Concordia University, Quebec - John Molson School of Business
Downloads 254 (115,137)

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Market timing, expected utility theory, regret theory, anticipated utility theory, cumulative prospect theory, bootstrap simulation

23.

Competition Policy and the Profitability of Corporate Acquisitions

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 02 Nov 2016 Last Revised: 20 Jan 2018
Gishan Dissanaike, Wolfgang Drobetz and Paul P. Momtaz
University of Cambridge - Judge Business School, Hamburg University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Downloads 235 (124,572)

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Mergers and Acquisitions (M&a), Takeovers, Acquirer Returns, Acquisition Efficiency, Bidder Wealth Effects, Antitrust Law Enforcement, Competition Policy, Merger Control, Law and Finance

24.

Investment and Financing Decisions of Private and Public Firms

29th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2016
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 08 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 20 Jan 2018
Wolfgang Drobetz, Malte Janzen and Iwan Meier
Hamburg University, University of Hamburg and HEC Montreal - Department of Finance
Downloads 233 (125,638)

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corporate investment, cash flow allocation, private firms, agency problems

25.

Optimal Timing and Tilting of Equity Factors

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 15 Dec 2018 Last Revised: 17 Dec 2018
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University, Invesco, Invesco and Allianz Global Investors
Downloads 232 (126,195)

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Asset allocation, factor investing, factor timing, factor tilting, parametric portfolio policy

26.

Cyclicality of Growth Opportunities and the Value of Cash Holdings

Number of pages: 68 Posted: 16 Aug 2015 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2016
Meike Ahrends, Wolfgang Drobetz and Tatjana Xenia Puhan
University of Hamburg, Hamburg University and University of Mannheim - Department of International Finance
Downloads 232 (126,195)

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Business cycle, cash holdings, value of cash, growth opportunities

Estimating the Cost of Executive Stock Options: Evidence from Switzerland

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 14 Jun 2005
Wolfgang Drobetz, Pascal Pensa and Markus Schmid
Hamburg University, University of Basel - Department of Finance and University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance
Downloads 201 (144,629)

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Managerial compensation, incentives, executive stock options, option valuation, risk aversion

Estimating the Cost of Executive Stock Options: Evidence from Switzerland

Corporate Governance: An International Review, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 798-815, September 2007
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 01 Oct 2007
Wolfgang Drobetz, Pascal Pensa and Markus Schmid
Hamburg University, University of Basel - Department of Finance and University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance
Downloads 26 (481,787)
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28.

Where is the Value Added of Rebalancing? A Systematic Comparison of Alternative Rebalancing Strategies

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 01 Sep 2012 Last Revised: 11 Aug 2015
Hubert Dichtl, Wolfgang Drobetz and Martin Wambach
dichtl research & consulting GmbH, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg
Downloads 225 (130,032)

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optimal rebalancing, stock-bond portfolio, bootstrap, statistical inference

29.

Are Stock Markets Really so Inefficient? The Case of the 'Halloween Indicator'

Finance Research Letters, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 12 Dec 2013
Hubert Dichtl and Wolfgang Drobetz
dichtl research & consulting GmbH and Hamburg University
Downloads 216 (135,219)

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Sell in May, stock market anomaly, bootstrap simulation, statistical inference

30.

Policy Uncertainty, Investment, and the Cost of Capital

Journal of Financial Stability, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 06 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2018
Hamburg University, University of Alberta - Campus Saint-Jean, University of South Carolina - Moore School of Business and University of Hamburg
Downloads 209 (139,538)

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Economic Uncertainty, Policy Uncertainty, Investment, Cost of Capital

31.

Corporate Governance Convergence in the European M&A Market

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 13 Aug 2015 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2018
Wolfgang Drobetz and Paul P. Momtaz
Hamburg University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Downloads 158 (179,387)

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Mergers and acquisitions, market for corporate control, cross-border acquisitions, corporate governance, investor protection, shareholder rights, acquirer returns, bidder wealth effects

32.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Revisited: The Case of International Shipping

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 09 Nov 2013
Hamburg University, University of Piraeus, American College of Greece (DEREE) and Athens University of Economics and Business - Department of Economics
Downloads 137 (201,763)

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33.

Capital Allocation and Ownership Concentration in the Shipping Industry

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 17 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 09 Jan 2019
Wolfgang Drobetz, Malte Janzen and Ignacio Requejo
Hamburg University, University of Hamburg and University of Salamanca - Administration and Business Economics
Downloads 103 (249,509)

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Capital Allocation, Corporate Investment, Shipping Firms, Ownership Concentration, Firm Value

34.

The Predictability of Alternative UCITS Fund Returns

Journal of Alternative Investments, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 03 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 25 Oct 2018
Michael Busack, Wolfgang Drobetz and Jan Tille
Absolut Research GmbH, Hamburg University and Absolut Research GmbH
Downloads 93 (266,958)

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Alternative Mutual Funds, UCITS Funds, Hedge Funds, Return Prediction

35.

Leverage, Beta Estimation, and the Size Effect

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 03 Aug 2014
Wolfgang Drobetz, Iwan Meier and Jörg Seidel
Hamburg University, HEC Montreal - Department of Finance and University of Hamburg - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chair of Corporate and Ship Finance
Downloads 89 (274,493)

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Size effect, capital asset pricing model, leverage, estimation

Equity Issues and Stock Repurchases of Initial Public Offerings

European Financial Management, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 29 Aug 2014
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen and Justus-Liebig-University Giessen
Downloads 81 (293,476)

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Initial Public Offerings, Share Repurchases, Seasoned Equity Offerings, Valuation Effects

Equity Issues and Stock Repurchases of Initial Public Offerings

European Financial Management, Vol. 22, Issue 1, pp. 31-62, 2016
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 21 Jan 2016
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen and Justus-Liebig-University Giessen
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Initial public offerings, share repurchases, seasoned equity offerings, valuation effects

37.

Corporate Insider Trading and Return Skewness

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 29 Jan 2018
Wolfgang Drobetz, Emil Mussbach and Christian Westheide
Hamburg University, University of Hamburg - Institute of Finance and University of Vienna - Department of Finance
Downloads 59 (345,243)

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insider trading, skewness

38.

Global Cash Flow Sensitivities

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 09 Aug 2017
Simon Döring, Wolfgang Drobetz, Malte Janzen and Iwan Meier
University of Hamburg, Hamburg University, University of Hamburg and HEC Montreal - Department of Finance
Downloads 27 (463,113)

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Cash Flow Sensitivity, Financial Development, Law and Finance

39.

Is Board Size an Independent Corporate Governance Mechanism?

Kyklos, Vol. 57, No. 3, pp. 327-356, August 2004
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 25 Sep 2004
University of Basel, Hamburg University, University of Bern - Institute of Economics and University of Basel - Center for Economic Science (WWZ) - Department of Finance
Downloads 23 (484,176)
Citation 16
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40.

Financing Shipping Companies and Shipping Operations: A Risk‐Management Perspective

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 23, Issue 4, pp. 70-82, 2011
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Dec 2011
Stefan Albertijn, Wolfgang Bessler and Wolfgang Drobetz
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen and Hamburg University
Downloads 6 (580,022)
Citation 1
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41.

Information Asymmetry and Financing Decisions

International Review of Finance, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 123-154, 2011
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 09 Mar 2011
Wolfgang Bessler, Wolfgang Drobetz and Matthias C. Grninger
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 4 (592,088)
Citation 4
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42.

The Returns to Hedge Fund Activism in Germany

European Financial Management, Vol. 21, Issue 1, pp. 106-147, 2015
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Jan 2015
Wolfgang Bessler, Wolfgang Drobetz and Julian Holler
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University and University of Giessen - Center for Finance and Banking
Downloads 2 (608,253)
Citation 2
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Corporate governance, hedge funds, event studies, long‐run performance

43.

Investment and Financing Decisions of Private and Public Firms

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 46, Issue 1-2, pp. 225-262, 2019
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Feb 2019
Wolfgang Drobetz, Malte Janzen and Iwan Meier
Hamburg University, University of Hamburg and HEC Montreal - Department of Finance
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agency problems, cash flow allocation, corporate investment, private firms

44.

Investor Sentiment and Initial Coin Offerings

The Journal of Alternative Investments, 22 (4), Spring 2019.
Posted: 31 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 01 Feb 2019
Wolfgang Drobetz, Paul P. Momtaz and Henning Schröder
Hamburg University, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and University of Hamburg

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Initial coin offerings, ICOs, investor sentiment, market sentiment, market timing, window of opportunity

45.

Can Investors Benefit from the Performance of Alternative UCITS Funds?

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (DOI: 10.1007/s11408-016-0283-7)
Posted: 24 Mar 2015 Last Revised: 24 Sep 2018
Michael Busack, Wolfgang Drobetz and Jan Tille
Absolut Research GmbH, Hamburg University and Absolut Research GmbH

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Alternative mutual funds, UCITS fund, hedge funds, performance measurement, performance persistence

46.

Capital Structure Decisions of Globally-Listed Shipping Companies

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 52, 2013, pp 49-76
Posted: 02 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 09 Sep 2013
Hamburg University, University of Bath, University of Piraeus and University of Hamburg

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Maritime financial management, capital structure, speed of adjustment

47.

The International Zero-Leverage Phenomenon

Midwest Finance Association 2013 Annual Meeting Paper
Posted: 05 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2014
Wolfgang Bessler, Wolfgang Drobetz, Rebekka Haller and Iwan Meier
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University, University of Hamburg and HEC Montreal - Department of Finance

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Capital structure, zero-leverage, debt conservatism, financial constraints, financial flexibility

48.

Fixed Income Portfolio Allocation Including Hedge Fund Strategies: A Copula Opinion Pooling Approach

Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 18, No. 4, 78-91.
Posted: 21 Aug 2008 Last Revised: 29 May 2013
Michael Stein, Roland Füss and Wolfgang Drobetz
University of Duisburg-Essen, University of St. Gallen - School of Finance and Hamburg University

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Fixed income portfolios, copula opinion pooling (COP) methodology, portfolio optimization, Monte Carlo simulations, hedge funds, robust Bayesian methods, non-normal return distributions, co-dependent markets, prior and posterior allocation

49.

Ship Funds as a New Asset Class: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Spot and Forward Prices in Freight Markets

Journal of Asset Management, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 102-120, 2008
Posted: 26 Jul 2008
Wolfgang Bessler, Wolfgang Drobetz and Jörg Seidel
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Hamburg University and University of Hamburg - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chair of Corporate and Ship Finance

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asset management, ship funds, freight markets, VEC model

50.

Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from Switzerland

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 293-324, 2007
Posted: 11 Sep 2007
Wolfgang Drobetz and Matthias Grüninger
Hamburg University and affiliation not provided to SSRN

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Cash holdings, Transaction costs motive, Precautionary motive

51.

The Contribution of Asset Allocation Policy to Portfolio Performance

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 219-233, 2002
Posted: 14 Sep 2005
Wolfgang Drobetz
Hamburg University

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Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 102    Citations: 0
1.

The Impact of Liquidity Crises on Cash Flow Sensitivities

26th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2013
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 28 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 31 Oct 2014
Wolfgang Drobetz, Rebekka Haller, Iwan Meier and Vefa Tarhan
Hamburg University, University of Hamburg, HEC Montreal - Department of Finance and Loyola University of Chicago - School of Business Administration
Downloads 102

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Cash flow sensitivity, financial constraints, liquidity crises, investment spending, supply side shock