Giorgio E. Primiceri

Northwestern University - Department of Economics

2003 Sheridan Road

Evanston, IL 60208

United States

http://faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/primiceri

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London

United Kingdom

  • Northwestern University - Department of Economics

  • National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

  • Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

27

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1,315

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,510

Scholarly Papers (27)

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1.

Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity

Downloads 777 ( 45,533)
Citation 41

Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity

ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2542
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 28 Apr 2021
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 491 (81,148)

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Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 847
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 07 May 2018
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 285 (149,560)
Citation 40

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model selection, shrinkage, high dimensional data

Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12256
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 11 Sep 2017
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (930,046)
Citation 1
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2.

Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 08 Jan 2003
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 253 (169,356)
Citation 76

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Time varying coefficients, multivariate stochastic volatility, Gibbs sampling, Taylor rule, monetary policy shocks, identification

3.

Measuring the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate

Economic Perspectives, Vol. XXXIV, No. 1, 2010
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2010
Alejandro Justiniano and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 242 (176,697)

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real interest rate, potential output, structural models, state-space representation, Model Construction and Estimation, Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Monetary Policy

4.

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles

Downloads 203 (208,574)
Citation 186

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 322, FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2008-12
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 27 Mar 2008
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 182 (229,719)
Citation 44

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DSGE model, imperfect competition, endogenous markups, Bayesian methods, Business Cycles, Bayesian Estimation

Investment Shocks and Business Cycles

NBER Working Paper No. w15570
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 18 Jul 2022
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 18 (741,605)

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Investment Shocks and Business Cycles

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6739
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 11 Jun 2008
Giorgio E. Primiceri, Andrea Tambalotti and Alejandro Justiniano
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Downloads 3 (898,760)
Citation 36
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Bayesian, DSGE model, endogenous markups, imperfect competition

5.

Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 619
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 18 May 2013
Marco Del Negro and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 184 (227,500)
Citation 227

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Bayesian methods, time varying volatility

6.

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020

Downloads 156 (262,898)
Citation 7

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020

ECB Working Paper No. 20202461
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 26 Aug 2020
Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 149 (273,723)

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COVID-19, density forecasts, outliers, volatility

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020

NBER Working Paper No. w27771
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 11 Sep 2020 Last Revised: 20 May 2022
Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (851,305)

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How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15245
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 12 Sep 2020
Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
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Citation 7
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COVID-19, Density forecasts, Outliers, volatility

7.

Inequality Over the Business Cycle: Estimating Income Risk Using Micro-Data on Consumption

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 11 Sep 2002
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thijs van Rens
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Downloads 144 (278,850)

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consumption, inequality, risk, incomplete markets, business cycle

8.

Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S

NBER Working Paper No. w13749
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 24 Jan 2008 Last Revised: 28 Jul 2022
Timothy Cogley, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thomas J. Sargent
Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and New York University (NYU) - Department of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business
Downloads 130 (301,718)
Citation 25

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9.

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

Downloads 105 (350,885)
Citation 46

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

NBER Working Paper No. w20874
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2022
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 43 (568,387)

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Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 709
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 11 Feb 2015
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 38 (595,731)
Citation 1

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housing and credit boom, house prices, collateral constraints, leverage restrictions

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 709
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 24 (690,843)
Citation 1

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housing and credit boom, house prices, collateral constraints, leverage restrictions

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10358
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 02 Feb 2015
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Citation 30
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collateral constraints, house prices, housing and credit boom, leverage restrictions

10.

Credit Supply and the Housing Boom

FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2014-21
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 19 Dec 2014
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 94 (376,759)
Citation 4

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Credit Supply, Housing Boom, Borrowing Constraints, Lending Constraints, Household Debt

11.

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

Downloads 90 (387,111)
Citation 136

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

ECB Working Paper No. 1494
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 Nov 2012
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 61 (486,229)

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forecasting, Bayesian methods, marginal likelihood, hierarchical modeling, impulse responses

Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

NBER Working Paper No. w18467
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 20 Oct 2012 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2022
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 22 (707,360)
Citation 60

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Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8755
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 20 Jan 2012
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 7 (851,305)
Citation 9
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Bayesian Methods, Forecasting, Hierarchical Modeling, Impulse Responses, Marginal Likelihood

12.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 02 Apr 2006
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thijs van Rens
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Downloads 84 (403,562)
Citation 3

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consumption, inequality, risk, heterogeneous income profiles

13.

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Downloads 79 (418,152)
Citation 1

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

FRB of NY Staff Report No. 829
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 17 Nov 2017
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 45 (558,008)

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credit boom, housing boom, securitization, private label, subprime

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

NBER Working Paper No. w23784
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 11 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 27 Jun 2022
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 17 (750,591)
Citation 1

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The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. WP-2017-23
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 Nov 2017
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 16 (759,677)

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Credit boom, housing boom, mortgage loans, securitization, private label, subprime

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12265
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 11 Sep 2017
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 1 (930,046)
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Credit boom, housing boom, private label, Securitization, subprime.

14.

Priors for the Long Run

Downloads 76 (427,552)
Citation 19

Priors for the Long Run

ECB Working Paper No. 2132; ISBN: 978-92-899-3237-0
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 01 Mar 2018
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 40 (584,652)

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Bayesian vector autoregression, forecasting, overfitting, initial conditions, hierarchical model

Priors for the Long Run

FRB of NY Staff Report No. 832
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 26 Nov 2017
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 36 (607,543)

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Bayesian vector autoregression, forecasting, overfitting, initial conditions, hierarchical model

Priors for the Long Run

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11261
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 09 May 2016
Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Central Bank (ECB) and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
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Citation 15
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15.

Intertemporal Disturbances

NBER Working Paper No. w12243
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 25 May 2006 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2022
Giorgio E. Primiceri, Ernst Schaumburg and Andrea Tambalotti
Northwestern University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 75 (430,639)
Citation 2

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16.

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

Downloads 73 (436,969)
Citation 74

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 602
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Mar 2013
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 56 (506,730)

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household debt, mortgages, house prices

Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

NBER Working Paper No. w18941
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 05 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2021
Alejandro Justiniano, Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 17 (750,591)
Citation 24

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Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9671
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 07 Oct 2013
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Citation 10
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Collateral constraints, Financial liberalization, House prices, Household debt

17.

Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Downloads 66 (460,696)
Citation 10

Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

IZA Working Paper No. 3239
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 23 May 2008
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thijs van Rens
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Downloads 34 (619,707)
Citation 7

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consumption, inequality, risk, incomplete markets, heterogeneity

Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 24 Jul 2007
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thijs van Rens
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (632,478)
Citation 3

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Consumption, inequality, risk, incomplete markets, heterogeneous income profiles

18.

The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w12022
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 27 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 09 May 2021
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Alejandro Justiniano
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Downloads 57 (494,697)
Citation 41

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19.

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth

Downloads 46 (542,479)
Citation 6

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth

FRB of NY Staff Report No. 766
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2017
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 35 (613,609)

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home prices, housing boom, household debt, credit supply, collateral constraints

A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth

NBER Working Paper No. w21942
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2022
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 11 (808,875)
Citation 1

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A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11083
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Feb 2016
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Citation 2
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collateral constraint, credit supply, house price, household debt, housing boom

20.

Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment

Downloads 44 (552,092)
Citation 143

Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 411
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 15 Dec 2009
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 41 (579,127)
Citation 12

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business cycles, financial factors, investment specific technology, DSGE model

Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7598
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 11 Jan 2010
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 3 (898,760)
Citation 37
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Business cycles, DSGE model, financial factors, investment-specific technology

21.

Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and Us Postwar Stabilization Policy

NBER Working Paper No. w11147
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 16 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2022
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 43 (557,023)
Citation 18

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22.

Learning the Wealth of Nations

Downloads 40 (572,267)
Citation 44

Learning the Wealth of Nations

NBER Working Paper No. w14595
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 29 Dec 2008 Last Revised: 20 May 2022
Francisco J. Buera, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Washington University in St. Louis, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 36 (607,543)

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Learning the Wealth of Nations

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8030
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 22 Nov 2010
Francisco J. Buera, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Giorgio E. Primiceri
Washington University in St. Louis, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Northwestern University - Department of Economics
Downloads 4 (885,825)
Citation 13
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beliefs, development, growth, market-oriented policy

23.

Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?

Downloads 38 (582,679)
Citation 35

Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?

NBER Working Paper No. w17071
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 23 May 2011 Last Revised: 23 Feb 2022
Thomas Juster, Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
University of Oxford, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 36 (607,543)

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Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8407
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 06 Jun 2011
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 2 (913,434)
Citation 14
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optimal policy, output gap, potential output

24.

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

Downloads 32 (616,950)
Citation 14

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w19635
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 16 Nov 2013 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2022
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 18 (741,605)
Citation 4

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The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2013-17
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 14 Dec 2013
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 14 (778,836)

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Deleveraging, House Prices, Saving Glut, Banking Glut

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9729
Posted: 14 Nov 2013
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Capital flows, Collateral constraints, Global imbalances, House prices, Household debt

25.

The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 648
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 24 Oct 2013
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 20 (701,470)
Citation 1

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U.S. Trade Deficit, household debt

26.

Heterogenous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5881
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 28 Dec 2006
Giorgio E. Primiceri and Thijs van Rens
Northwestern University - Department of Economics and University of Warwick - Department of Economics
Downloads 13 (761,027)
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Consumption, inequality, risk, incomplete markets, heterogeneity

27.

What's Up with the Phillips Curve?

Downloads 11 (779,730)
Citation 1

What's Up with the Phillips Curve?

NBER Working Paper No. w27003
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 20 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2022
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, European Central Bank (ECB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 11 (808,875)

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What's Up with the Phillips Curve?

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14583
Number of pages: 79 Posted: 08 May 2020
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, European Central Bank (ECB), Northwestern University - Department of Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Citation 1
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