Kesten C. Green

University of South Australia - UniSA Business

GPO Box 2471

Adelaide, SA 5001

Australia

http://people.unisa.edu.au/Kesten.Green

Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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4,257

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 16,247

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27

CROSSREF CITATIONS

40

Scholarly Papers (31)

1.

Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility and Irresponsibility Policies

Journal of Business Research, 2013
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 28 Jan 2013
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 520 (64,411)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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accountability, affirmative action, decision making, ethics, externalities, free markets, minimum wage, paternalism, principle-agent problem, regulation, seer-sucker theory, stakeholder accounting, stakeholder theory, sustainability

2.

The Global Warming Alarm: Forecasts from the Structured Analogies Method

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 09 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 443 (78,377)

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DDT, decision making, evidence-based forecasts; global cooling; lobby groups; popular movements; precautionary principle; public policy; scenarios

3.

Competitor-Oriented Objectives: Myth of Market Share

International Journal of Business, Vol. 12, pp. 117-136, 2007
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 May 2007
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 443 (78,377)

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Competition, Market Share, Objective, Profitability

4.

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 254 (144,680)
Citation 14

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5.

Simple Versus Complex Forecasting: The Evidence

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 252 (145,843)
Citation 10

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analytics; big data; decision-making; decomposition; econometrics; Occam’s razor.

6.

Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-Playing, and Unaided Judgement

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 01 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green
University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 239 (153,586)

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Conflict, Expert opinion, Forecasting, Game theory, Judgement, Role-playing, Simulation

7.

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-Based Methods

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 211 (172,881)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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checklist, competitor behavior, forecast accuracy, market share, market size, sales forecasting

8.
Downloads 202 (180,116)
Citation 3

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Monash University Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper No. 17/04
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 08 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 116 (285,336)
Citation 6

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accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 86 (348,924)

Abstract:

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Availability, Case-based reasoning, Comparison, Decision, Method

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Posted: 25 Jan 2005
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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Forecasting, expert forecasting, judgmental procedure

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Interfaces, pp. 1-12, 2007
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 25 May 2007
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 85 (351,468)

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applications, bargaining, behavior, competitive strategy, decision making, decision analysis, defense, effectiveness/performance, forecasting, foreign policy, leadership, military, organizational studies, strategy, tactics

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 01 Jul 2008
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 67 (403,479)

Abstract:

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applications, bargaining, behavior, competitive strategy, decision making, decision analysis

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Interfaces, 2007
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 11 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 29 (571,104)

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10.
Downloads 88 (200,775)

Forecasting

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 88 (343,956)

Abstract:

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forecasting, prediction, projection, prognosis, principles

11.

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 165 (215,195)
Citation 2

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analytics, bias, big data, causality, checklists, combining, elections, index method, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, uncertainty

12.

Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 137 (250,855)

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Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-Based Checklists

Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 09 Aug 2018
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 136 (253,167)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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combining forecasts, data models, decomposition, equalizing, expectations, extrapolation, knowledge models, intentions, Occam’s razor, prediction intervals, predictive validity, regression analysis, uncertainty

14.

Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists

Scholarly Commons, 1-24-17
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 20 Oct 2017
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 125 (268,940)
Citation 4

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advocacy, econometrics, evidence-based checklists, experiments, multiple hypotheses, objectivity, reg ression analysis, replication, statistical significance

15.

Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-Playing, and Unaided Judgment

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Jul 2008
Kesten C. Green
University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 110 (294,668)

Abstract:

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Conflict, Expert opinion, Forecasting, Game theory, Judgement, Role-playing, Simulation

16.

Forecasting Principles

M. Lovric, International Encyclopedia on Statistical Science (2010)
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 95 (324,958)

Abstract:

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forecasting, principles

17.

Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 87 (343,488)
Citation 1

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consumer protection, corrective advertising, decision making, government regulation, judgment

18.

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 75 (374,771)

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Econometrics, election forecasting, equalizing, equal weights, index method, political economy models, regression

19.

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Monash University Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper No. 27/04
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 72 (383,324)
Citation 4

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bad faith, framing, hindsight bias, methods, politics

20.

Further Evidence on Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Monash University Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper No. 18/04
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 01 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green
University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 66 (401,611)
Citation 4

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accuracy, methods, role playing, usefulness

21.

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Rui Du and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 65 (404,841)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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advertising, combining forecasts, copy testing, expertise, intentions, judgmental forecasting

22.

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 65 (404,841)

Abstract:

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cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

23.

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit

Interfaces, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Jul 2008
Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, Harvard University - Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 50 (457,971)

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24.

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Rui Du and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 38 (509,629)

Abstract:

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advertising effectiveness, combining forecasts, creativity, index method, profitability, variable weighting

25.

Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Harvard University - Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Downloads 38 (509,629)
Citation 3

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climate model, ex ante forecasts, out-of-sample errors, predictability, public policy, relative absolute errors, unconditional forecasts

26.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (539,697)

Abstract:

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combining forecasts, damping, equalizing, elections, golden rule of forecasting, index method, shrinkage

27.

The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?

International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 27 Jan 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 31 (544,966)

Abstract:

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Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction

28.

Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 May 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Central Oklahoma and University of South Australia - School of Marketing
Downloads 17 (633,862)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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accuracy, appearance, forecasting methods, snap judgments

29.

Role Thinking: Standing in Other People’s Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 28 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 14 (655,218)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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combining forecasts, evaluating forecasts, expert judgment, group decision making, organizational behavior, perspective-taking, role playing, simulated interaction, unaided judgment

30.

Accuracy Gains from Conservative Forecasting: Tests Using Variations of 19 Econometric Models to Predict 154 Elections in 10 Countries

PLoS ONE 14 (1): e0209850. 2019
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jan 2019
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 6 (715,225)

Abstract:

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31.

Competitor-Oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share

International Journal of Business, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2007
Posted: 10 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business

Abstract:

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Competition, Market share, Objective, Profitability