Gunter Löffler

Ulm University

Helmholzstrasse

Ulm, D-89081

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

21

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CITATIONS
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70

Scholarly Papers (21)

1.

Evaluating Credit Risk Models: A Critique and a Proposal (New Version)

EFMA 2001 Lugano Meetings
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 May 2001
Hergen Frerichs and Gunter Löffler
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Ulm University
Downloads 1,268 (14,857)
Citation 2

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Credit risk, backtesting, density forecasts, model validation, bank regulation

2.

An Anatomy of Rating Through the Cycle

EFA 2001 Barcelona Meetings
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 06 Jul 2001
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 754 (31,838)
Citation 49

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Credit ratings, rating agencies, credit cycles, Kalman filter, efficiency, conservatism

3.

Caught in the Housing Crash: Model Failure or Management Failure?

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Jan 2009 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2011
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 526 (51,266)
Citation 1

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housing crash, risk management, forecasting, stress scenario, ARIMA

4.

Who Knows What When? - the Information Content of Pre-Ipo Market Prices

EFA 2002 Berlin Meetings Presented Paper
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Mar 2002
Gunter Löffler, Patrick Panther and Erik Theissen
Ulm University, Johann Wolfgang Goethe Universitat and University of Mannheim - Finance Area
Downloads 523 (51,636)
Citation 25

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Initial public offerings, underpricing, when-issued trading, asymmetric information, winner's curse, information production

5.

Tower Building and Stock Market Returns

Journal of Financial Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 22 Mar 2011 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2013
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 511 (53,183)

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Predictability, Stock Market, Dividend yield, Skyscrapers

6.

Pitfalls in the Use of Systemic Risk Measures

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 12 Apr 2015 Last Revised: 21 Oct 2017
Gunter Löffler and Peter Raupach
Ulm University and Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Department
Downloads 335 (88,180)
Citation 7

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Systemic Risk; CoVaR; Marginal Expected Shortfall; Tail Risk

7.

Salient News and the Stock Market Impact of Tone in Rating Reports

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 01 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2019
Gunter Löffler, Lars Norden and Alexander Rieber
Ulm University, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) and University of Ulm
Downloads 285 (105,233)
Citation 2

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Credit rating, salient news, overreaction, underreaction, textual analysis

A Long-Run Performance Perspective on the Technology Bubble

The Financial Review, 2017
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 23 Dec 2015 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2017
Maximilian Franke and Gunter Löffler
Ulm University and Ulm University
Downloads 261 (114,920)

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Internet stocks, tech stocks, bubble, long-run abnormal performance

A Long‐Run Performance Perspective on the Technology Bubble

Financial Review, Vol. 53, Issue 2, pp. 379-412, 2018
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 03 Apr 2018
Maximilian Franke and Gunter Löffler
Ulm University and Ulm University
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Internet stocks, tech stocks, bubble, long‐run abnormal performance

9.

Can Market Discipline Work in the Case of Rating Agencies? Some Lessons from Moody’s Stock Price

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 02 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 12 Apr 2013
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 220 (137,027)
Citation 2

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credit rating agencies, rating quality, oligopoly, market discipline, reputational capital

Robustness and Informativeness of Systemic Risk Measures

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 14 May 2013 Last Revised: 02 Apr 2017
Gunter Löffler and Peter Raupach
Ulm University and Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Department
Downloads 158 (185,165)
Citation 11

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Systemic Risk, CoVaR, Marginal Expected Shortfall, Tail Risk

Robustness and Informativeness of Systemic Risk Measures

Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 04/2013
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 21 Jun 2016
Gunter Löffler and Peter Raupach
Ulm University and Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Department
Downloads 52 (383,104)

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Systemic Risk, CoVaR, Marginal Expected Shortfall, Tail Risk

11.

Ratings Versus Equity-Based Measures of Default Risk in Portfolio Governance

EFMA 2004 Basel Meetings Paper
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 14 May 2004
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 199 (150,566)
Citation 22

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credit ratings, rating agencies, investment restrictions

12.

Predicting the Equity Premium with the Demand for Gold Coins and Bars

FIRN Research Paper
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 05 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2015
Dirk G. Baur and Gunter Löffler
University of Western Australia - Business School and Ulm University
Downloads 189 (157,944)
Citation 4

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equity premium, stock returns, gold, gold coins, dividend yield, predictive regressions

13.

Incorporating the Dynamics of Leverage into Default Prediction

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 24 Mar 2011
Gunter Löffler and Alina Maurer
Ulm University and University of Ulm - Department of Mathematics and Economics
Downloads 169 (174,602)
Citation 10

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default prediction, discrete duration model, leverage targeting, mean reversion, credit rating

14.

Bayesian Methods for Improving Credit Scoring Models

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 13 Jun 2005 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2010
Gunter Löffler, Peter N. Posch and Christiane Schone
Ulm University, TU Dortmund University and Independent
Downloads 162 (180,939)
Citation 1

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Credit scoring, Bayesian inference, bankruptcy prediction

15.

European versus Anglo-Saxon Credit View: Evidence from the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Dec 2016 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2018
University of Ulm - Department of Mathematics and Economics, University of Ulm - Department of Mathematics and Economics, University of Ulm - Department of Mathematics and Economics and Ulm University
Downloads 121 (228,833)

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Credit rating agencies, sovereign debt crisis, Eurozone, home bias

16.

Measuring the Effects of Geographical Distance on Stock Market Correlation

Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 18, No. 2, 2011
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 24 Mar 2011
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Ulm University, University of Ulm - Department of Mathematics and Economics and University of Ulm
Downloads 69 (327,761)
Citation 1

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stock returns, residual correlation, mark correlation function, spatial correlation, investor sentiment

17.

Wall Street’s Bailout Bet: Market Reactions to House Price Releases in the Presence of Bailout Expectations

Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 37(12), pages 5147-5158, 2013.
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 11 Dec 2010 Last Revised: 10 Mar 2016
Gunter Löffler and Peter N. Posch
Ulm University and TU Dortmund University
Downloads 26 (481,559)

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Financial crisis, announcement effects, house prices, bail-out

18.

The Systemic Risk Implications of Using Credit Ratings Versus Quantitative Measures to Limit Bond Portfolio Risk

Journal of Financial Services Research (2019)
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 20 May 2019 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2019
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University
Downloads 18 (526,804)

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ratings, structural models of default risk, systemic risk, portfolio risk

19.

Is Contagion Infecting Your Portfolio? A Study of the Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis

Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 25, No. 3, 2016
Posted: 15 Nov 2017
Dirk G. Baur and Gunter Löffler
University of Western Australia - Business School and Ulm University

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contagion; Eurozone crisis; co-exceedanes; persistence

20.

Corporate Bond Defaults are Consistent with Conditional Independence

Journal of Credit Risk, Forthcoming
Posted: 24 Jun 2010
Florian Kramer and Gunter Löffler
Allianz Investment Management SE and Ulm University

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Intensity Estimation, Doubly stochastic, Default Correlation

21.

The Complementary Nature of Ratings and Market-Based Measures of Default Risk

Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 17, Summer 2007
Posted: 17 Jul 2007
Gunter Löffler
Ulm University

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default prediction, credit ratings, Merton approach