Kevin D. Hoover

Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy

Professor

213 Social Sciences Building

Box 90097

Durham, NC 27708-0204

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

52

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CITATIONS
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129

Scholarly Papers (52)

1.

The Methodology of Econometrics

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 May 2005
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 1,537 (10,095)
Citation 2

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Econometrics, methodology, philosophy of science, Popper, Lakatos, semantic approach, Haavelmo, vector autoregression, LSE approach, calibration, Cowles Commission

2.

Causality in Economics and Econometrics

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 18 Sep 2006
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 1,010 (19,348)
Citation 3

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causality, causal inference, econometrics, identification, structural vector autoregressions, graph-theory, Hume, Mill, Jevons, Granger, Granger causality, Simon, Haavelmo, Cowles Commission, Zellner, Pearl, Spirtes

3.

The Crisis in Economic Theory: A Review Essay

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 11 Nov 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2016
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 778 (28,325)
Citation 1

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economic theory, neoclassical economics, sociology, abduction, mimetic hypothesis, monetary economy, financial crisis, Great Recession

4.

John Maynard Keynes of Bloomsbury: Four Short Talks

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Research Paper No. 23
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 25 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 13 Apr 2009
Duke University - Department of Economics, Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy, Duke University - Department of Economics and Duke University - Department of Economics
Downloads 621 (38,383)

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John Maynard Keynes, Bloomsbury Group, economic policy, Great Depression, macroeconomics, Friedrich A. von Hayek, Keynesian economics, Austrian economics

5.

Microfoundations and the Ontology of Macroeconomics

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Sep 2006
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 459 (56,537)

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macroeconomics, microfoundations, ontology, methodological individualism, methodology, John Searle, collective intentionality, emergence, reductionism, supervenience, social reality

6.

Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, CHOPE Working Paper No. 2011-10
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 05 Jul 2011
Kevin D. Hoover and Warren Young
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and Bar-Ilan University - Department of Economics
Downloads 451 (57,782)

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rational expectations, John F. Muth, macroeconomics, dynamics, macroeconomic policy, behavioral economics, efficient markets

7.

Observing Shocks

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2011-09, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 15 May 2011 Last Revised: 21 May 2011
Pedro Garcia Duarte and Kevin D. Hoover
University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) - Department of Economics and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 321 (86,178)

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shock, new classical macroeconomics, real-business-cycle model, Ragnar Frisch, Jan Tinbergen, Robert Lucas, data, phenomena, James Bogen, James Woodward, DSGE model, impulse-response function

8.

Economic Theory and Causal Inference

HANDBOOK OF THE PHILOSPHY OF ECONOMICS, Uskali Mäki, ed., Forthcoming , THE HANDBOOK OF THE PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, Dov Gabbay, Paul Thagard, and John Woods, eds., Elsevier/North-Holland, Amsterdam, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 18 Sep 2006
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 308 (90,223)
Citation 2

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causality, causal inference, economic theory, econometrics, Cowles Commission, graph theory, invariance, Granger-causality, exogeneity, superexogeneity, structural vector autoregressions, Lucas critique

9.

The Role of Hypothesis Testing in the Molding of Econometric Models

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2012-03, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 08 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 17 Apr 2012
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 293 (95,366)

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statistical testing, hypothesis tests, models, general-to-specific specification search, optional stopping, severe tests, costs of search, costs of inference, extreme-bounds analysis, LSE econometric methodology

10.

Idealizing Reduction: The Microfoundations of Macroeconomics

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 03 Jun 2008
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 277 (101,341)
Citation 1

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idealization, reductionism, microfoundations of macroeconomics, macroeconomics, microeconomics, modeling

11.

Milton Friedman's Stance: The Methodology of Causal Realism

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 19 May 2006
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 273 (102,839)
Citation 2

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Milton Friedman, methodology, monetary economics, causal realism, causality, realism, instrumentalism, as if reasoning, realism of assumptions

12.

Selecting Instrumental Variables: A Graph-Theoretic Approach

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 01 Sep 2013
Piyachart Phiromswad and Kevin D. Hoover
Sasin of Chulalongkorn University and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 260 (108,250)

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instrumental variables, Bayes nets, causal search, directed cyclical graphs, cross-country growth

13.

Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 21 Nov 2007
Kevin D. Hoover, Soren Johansen and Katarina Juselius
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy, University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics and University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics
Downloads 256 (110,004)
Citation 15

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cointegrated vector autoregression, VAR, CVAR, cointegration, Johansen, Juselius, Haavelmo, time-series models, Walrasian methodology, Marshallian methodology

14.

Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy

UC Davis Working Paper No. 00-05
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 12 Dec 2000
Kevin D. Hoover and Oscar Jorda
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics
Downloads 254 (110,959)
Citation 9

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systematic monetary policy, VAR, structural break

15.

Pragmatism, Perspectival Realism, and Econometrics

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 88
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 06 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2011
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 250 (112,737)
Citation 3

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econometrics, realism, perspectival realism, perspectivism, pragmatism, models, Ronald Giere, Charles S. Peirce

16.

Reductionism in Economics: Causality and Intentionality in the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series No. 2014-03
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 21 Feb 2014
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 233 (121,109)

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microfoundations of macroeconomics, reductionism, causation, intentionality, Lucas critique

17.

Sound and Fury: Mccloskey and Significance Testing in Economics

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 03 Dec 2005
Kevin D. Hoover and Mark V. Siegler
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 232 (121,628)
Citation 5

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statistical significance, economic significance, significance testing, regression analysis, econometric methodology, Deirdre McCloskey, Neyman-Pearson testing

18.

Microfoundational Programs

Number of pages: 59 Posted: 02 Mar 2010
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 230 (122,682)
Citation 3

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Microfoundations Of Macroeconomics, General Equilibrium, Aggregation, Representative Agent, Fixed-Price Models, Econometric Models

19.

Probability and Structure in Econometric Models

Economics Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 18
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 21 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2009
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 222 (127,068)

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econometrics, causality, causal search, graph-theory, probability, principle of the common cause, identification, Haavelmo, Reichenbach, Cartwright

20.

The Genesis of Samuelson and Solow's Price-Inflation Phillips Curve

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series Paper No. 2014-10, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 16 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 19 Feb 2015
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 217 (129,904)

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Phillips curve, Paul A. Samuelson, Robert M. Solow, inflation, unemployment, macroeconomic policy

21.

Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2

Economics Research Initiatives at Duke Working Paper No. 19
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 04 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2009
Kevin D. Hoover, Selva Demiralp and Stephen J. Perez
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy, Koc University - Department of Economics and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 211 (133,376)
Citation 3

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M2, monetary aggregates, causality, causal analysis, graph theory, monetary policy, quantity theory of money, PcGets, Autometrics, search algorithms

22.

Man and Machine in Macroeconomics

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 10 Sep 2012
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 206 (136,395)

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macroeconomics, Keynes, Frisch, Tinbergen, Klein, macroeconometric models, macroeconomic policy

23.

Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression

UC Davis Working Paper No. 03-03
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 21 Apr 2003
Kevin D. Hoover and Selva Demiralp
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and Koc University - Department of Economics
Downloads 198 (141,603)
Citation 18

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24.

Foundations or Bridges? A Review of J.E. King's the Microfoundations Delusion: Metaphor and Dogma in the History of Macroeconomics

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 31 Aug 2013
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 195 (143,612)

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microfoundations of macroeconomics, representative-agent model, reductionism, fallacy of composition, downward causation, metaphor

25.

Solow's Harrod: Transforming Cyclical Dynamics into a Model of Long-Run Growth

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, CHOPE Working Paper No. 2013-02
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 27 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 07 May 2013
Verena Halsmayer and Kevin D. Hoover
University of Lucerne and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 190 (147,178)
Citation 1

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economic growth, Roy Harrod, Robert Solow, dynamics, dynamic instability, knife-edge, warranted rate of growth, natural rate of growth

26.

In the Kingdom of Solovia: The Rise of Growth Economics at MIT, 1956-1970

Center for the History of Political Economy CHOPE Working Paper No. 2013-04, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 30 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2013
Mauro Boianovsky and Kevin D. Hoover
Universidade de Brasilia and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 185 (150,824)

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growth theory, development economics, MIT, Robert Solow, endogenous growth models, technical progress

Truth and Robustness in Cross-Country Growth Regressions

, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 59 Posted: 27 Feb 2001
Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 169 (163,560)
Citation 34

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growth, cross-country growth regressions, extreme-bounds analysis, general-to-specific specification search

Truth and Robustness in Cross-Country Growth Regressions

Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 5, pp. 765-798, December 2004
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 16 Dec 2004
Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (526,899)
Citation 34
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28.

Situational Analysis

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series 2016-17
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 24 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2016
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 181 (154,524)

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situational analysis, situational logic, Karl Popper, falsification, context of discovery, context of justification

29.

Causal Structure and Hierarchies of Models

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 89
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 07 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2011
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 170 (162,606)

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structural account, causation, causal order, Nancy Cartwright, James Woodward, Herbert Simon, manipulability account, causal structure, identity, independence, modularity

30.

Against Psychosis: A Review of Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg’s Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2012-02, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 08 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 17 Apr 2012
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 159 (172,288)

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Roman Frydman, Michael Goldberg, imperfect knowledge economics (IKE), rational expectations, uncertainty, John Maynard Keynes, Robert Lucas

31.

On the Reception of Haavelmo’s Econometric Thought

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2012-04
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 08 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 10 Feb 2012
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 156 (175,127)

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Trygve Haavelmo, econometrics, history of econometrics, the probability approach, econometric methodology, Cowles Commission

32.

A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 02 Apr 2006
Selva Demiralp, Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Koc University - Department of Economics, Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 152 (179,035)
Citation 4

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vector autoregression (VAR), structural vector autoregression (SVAR), causality, causal order, Choleski order, causal search algorithms, graph-theoretic methods

33.

Evaluating Specification Search in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: Extreme Bounds vs. General-to-Specific Methodologies

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 30 Sep 2001
Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 146 (185,043)
Citation 1

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specification search, extreme-bounds analysis, general-to-specific specification search, LSE econometric methodology, growth, cross-country growth regressions, multiple imputation

34.

Was Harrod Right?

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2012-01
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 08 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 10 Feb 2012
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 140 (191,420)
Citation 1

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economic growth, Roy Harrod, Robert Solow, dynamics, dynamic instability, knife-edge, warranted rate of growth, natural rate of growth

35.

Causal Pluralism and the Limits of Causal Analysis: A Review of Nancy Cartwright’s 'Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics'

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 03 Mar 2010
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 138 (193,669)

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Nancy Cartwright, Causality, Philosophy of Economics, Economic Methodology, Graph Theory, Bayes’ Nets, Causal Inference, Counterfactuals

36.

Mathematical Economics Comes to America: Charles S. Peirce's Engagement with Cournot's Recherches Sur Les Principes Mathematiques De La Théorie Des Richesses

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, CHOPE Working Paper No. 2013-12
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 30 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 27 Sep 2013
James R. Wible and Kevin D. Hoover
University of New Hampshire - Department of Economics and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 137 (194,807)

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Charles S. Peirce, A.C. Cournot, mathematical economics, monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly, perfect competition

37.

Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression

Univ. of Copenhagen Dept. of Economics Discussion Paper No. 12-16
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 07 Nov 2012
Kevin D. Hoover and Katarina Juselius
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and University of Copenhagen - Department of Economics
Downloads 136 (196,009)
Citation 1

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Trygve Haavelmo, experiments, passive observation, CVAR, scenario analysis, probability approach, econometrics

38.

First Principles, Fallibilism, and Economics

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series, 2017-01
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 20 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 24 Jan 2017
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 120 (216,048)

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economics, first principles, fallibilism, foundationalism, empiricism, John Stuart Mill, Lionel Robbins, George Stigler, Gary Becker

39.

Counterfactuals and Causal Structure

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 01 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 27 Sep 2010
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 115 (222,878)
Citation 2

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causation, causal order, causal structure, counterfactuals, James Woodward, Nancy Cartwright, invariance, structural account, manipulability account, causal pluralism, independence, modularity

40.

The Vanity of the Economist: A Comment on Peart and Levy's 'the Vanity of the Philosopher'

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 27 Sep 2006
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 107 (234,786)

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David Levy, Sandra Peart, Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Thomas Carlyle, eugenics, racism, egalitarianism, hierarchy, classical economics, post-classical economics

41.

A Countercultural Methodology: Caldwell's Beyond Positivism at Thirty-Five

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series No. 2017-13, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 12 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 03 Oct 2017
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 98 (249,417)

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Bruce Caldwell, economic methodology, positivism, naturalism, Austrian economics

42.

The Ontological Status of Shocks and Trends in Macroeconomics

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, CHOPE Working Paper No. 2013-15, Conference on Ontology & Methodology, Virginia Tech., May 4-5, 2013
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 18 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 27 Sep 2013
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 96 (252,856)

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shocks, trends, causation, latent variables, Bayes-nets, causal Markov condition, principle of the common cause, scientific realism, counter-factual policy analysis, structural vector-auto-regression

43.

Automatic Inference of the Contemporaneous Causal Order of a System of Equations

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 15 Feb 2005
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 89 (265,409)
Citation 12

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causality, causal search, causal order, structural vector autoregression, VAR, model selection, general-to-specific, graph theory, VAR, SVAR

44.

Ricardian Inference: Charles S. Peirce, Economics, and Scientific Method

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2017-10, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 31 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2018
Kevin D. Hoover and James R. Wible
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and University of New Hampshire - Department of Economics
Downloads 86 (271,070)

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Charles S. Peirce, David Ricardo, Antoine Augustin Cournot, Ricardian Inference, Analogy, Abduction, Induction, Economics, Transfinite Cardinals

45.

Still Puzzling: Evaluating the Price Puzzle in an Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregression

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 May 2009
Selva Demiralp, Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Koc University - Department of Economics, Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 74 (296,394)
Citation 2

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price puzzle, monetary policy, inflation, graph theory, causality, causal search, PC algorithm, output gap, SVAR, cost channel, commodity prices, transmission mechanism

46.

The Economics of Trade Liberalization: Charles S. Peirce and the Spanish Treaty of 1884

CHOPE Working Paper No. 2017-11, Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 31 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2018
James R. Wible and Kevin D. Hoover
University of New Hampshire - Department of Economics and Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 48 (367,279)

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Charles S. Peirce, International Trade, Tariffs, Trade Policy, Economic Methodology, Mathematical Economics

47.

Long-Run Causal Order: A Preliminary Investigation

Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper Forthcoming
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 23 May 2018
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 21 (480,657)

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graphical causal modeling, causal search, cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR), weak exogeneity, irreducible cointegrating relations

48.

A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Auto-regression

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 70, Issue 4, pp. 509-533, August 2008
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 22 Jul 2008
Selva Demiralp, Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Koc University - Department of Economics, Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics
Downloads 1 (598,634)
Citation 4
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49.

Technology Shocks or Colored Noise?: Why Real-Business-Cycle Models Cannot Explain Actual Business Cycles

UC Davis Working Paper No. 97-29
Posted: 21 Jul 1998
Kevin D. Hoover and Kevin D. Salyer
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and University of California, Davis - Department of Economics

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50.

Two Centuries of Taxes and Spending: A Causal Investigation of the Federal Budget Process

UC Davis Working Paper #97-30
Posted: 24 Jan 1998
Kevin D. Hoover and Mark V. Siegler
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics

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51.

Econometrics and Reality

UC Davis Working Paper #97-28
Posted: 22 Jan 1998
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy

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52.

Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing and the General-to-Specific Approach to Specification Search

UC Davis Working Paper #97-27
Posted: 21 Jan 1998
Kevin D. Hoover and Stephen J. Perez
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy and California State University, Sacramento - Department of Economics

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Other Papers (1)

Total Downloads: 20    Citations: 0
1.

A Review of James Forder's Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

The Center for the History of Political Economy Working Paper Series
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 15 Jul 2015
Kevin D. Hoover
Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy
Downloads 20

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Phillips curve, A.W. Phillips, Milton Friedman, inflation, unemployment