Michael T. Kiley

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Deputy Director - Financial Stability

20th and C Streets, NW

Washington, DC 20551

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

42

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3,834

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 2,905

in Total Papers Citations

195

CROSSREF CITATIONS

181

Scholarly Papers (42)

1.

Monetary Policy Under Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an Application to Price Level and Inflation Targeting

Federal Reserve Board FEDS Paper No. 98-27
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 27 Dec 1998
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 585 (46,951)
Citation 13

Abstract:

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2.

Stock Prices and Fundamentals in a Production Economy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2000-05
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 17 Jul 2000
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 249 (126,741)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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asset pricing, investment

3.

What Can the Data Tell Us About the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-077, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.077
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 27 Sep 2015
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 194 (161,156)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Bayesian Methods, Equilibrium real interest rate, Potential Output

How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?

FEDS Working Paper No. 26
Number of pages: 96 Posted: 14 Mar 2011
Jean Boivin, Michael T. Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin
HEC Montreal, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics
Downloads 125 (234,040)
Citation 29

Abstract:

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Monetary transmission, stability, monetary policy

How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?

NBER Working Paper No. w15879
Number of pages: 90 Posted: 12 Apr 2010
Jean Boivin, Michael T. Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin
HEC Montreal, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics
Downloads 63 (363,527)

Abstract:

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5.

Computers and Growth with Costs of Adjustment: Will the Future Look Like the Past?

FEDS Working Paper No. 99-36
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 14 Dec 1999
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 184 (169,038)
Citation 11

Abstract:

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6.

The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates

FEDS Working Paper No. 2012-54
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 26 Dec 2012
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 150 (201,602)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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IS curve, long-term interest rates

7.

Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-059, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.059
Number of pages: 72 Posted: 14 Aug 2015
Bank of England - Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Flow of Funds Section and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 118 (243,375)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Early warning system, Financial crisis, Financial stability and risk, Financial vulnerabilities, Heat maps, Macroprudential policy, Systemic risk

8.

Staggered Price Setting and Real Rigidities

FEDS No. 97-46
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 30 Apr 1998
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 118 (243,375)
Citation 5

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9.

An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2001-41
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 11 Dec 2001
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 117 (244,889)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Non-expected utility, business cycles, stabilization policy, asset pricing

10.

Natural Rate Measures in an Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-08
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 25 Apr 2007
Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley and Jean-Philippe Laforte
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 116 (246,446)
Citation 35

Abstract:

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Potential output, Natural rate of interest, Two-sector growth model, Bayesian estimation

11.

Documentation of the Research and Statistics Divisions Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-53
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 05 Dec 2007
Rochelle M. Edge, Michael T. Kiley and Jean-Philippe Laforte
Monetary Affairs Division at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 112 (252,650)
Citation 19

Abstract:

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two-sector growth model, sticky-prices, sticky-wages, habit-persistence, investment adjustment costs, variable utilization, Bayesian estimation

12.

The Supply of Skilled Labor and Skill-Biased Technological Progress

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Series 97-45
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 16 Dec 1997
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 109 (257,518)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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13.

Habit Persistence, Non-Separability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2007-48
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 Nov 2007
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 107 (260,889)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Habit persistence, inattention, excess sensitivity, excess smoothness

14.

Efficiency Wages, Nominal Rigidities, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages and Marginal Cost

FRB Finance and Econ. Disc. Series #97-24
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 07 Nov 1997
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 94 (284,615)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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15.

Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Framework

FEDS Working Paper No. 2011-27
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 20 May 2011
Michael T. Kiley and Jae Sim
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 89 (294,598)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Capital market friction, financial intermediary, capital constraint, liquidity based asset pricing, credit provision, uncertainty, aggregate fluctuation

16.

How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2003-01
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 15 May 2003
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 87 (298,769)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Unemployment insurance, time-varying benefits

17.

What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2018-038
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 20 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 82 (309,961)

Abstract:

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Current account, Debt, Equity prices, Financial crisis, House prices

18.

The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound

FEDS Working Paper No. 2013-15
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Apr 2013
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 82 (309,961)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, stock market

19.

Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2004-43
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 20 Dec 2004
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 82 (309,961)
Citation 26

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, equilibrium determinacy, Taylor rule, sunspot fluctuations

20.

Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound

FEDS Working Paper No. 2013-17
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 09 Apr 2013
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 80 (314,538)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, exchange rates

21.

Quantitative Easing and the 'New Normal' in Monetary Policy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2018-004
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 22 Jan 2018
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 78 (319,219)

Abstract:

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Interest rates, Macroeconomic models, Monetary policy

Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses Across Structural Models

BIS Working Paper No. 507
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 03 Aug 2015
Federal Reserve Board - Trade and Financial Studies, Federal Reserve Board - Trade and Financial Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Global Modeling Studies and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 53 (396,239)

Abstract:

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Banks, DSGE Models, Capital Requirements, Bank Losses

Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses Across Structural Models

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-044, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.044
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 10 Jul 2015
Federal Reserve Board - Trade and Financial Studies, Federal Reserve Board - Trade and Financial Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Global Modeling Studies and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 24 (530,285)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bank losses, Banks, Capital requirements, DSGE models

23.

An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

FEDS Working Paper No. 2014-28
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 19 Apr 2014
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 72 (334,144)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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short-term unemployment, phillips curve

24.

Monetary Policy Actions and Long-Run Inflation Expectations

FEDS Working Paper No. 2008-03
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 15 Jan 2009
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 72 (334,144)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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Inflation objective, learning

25.

Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model

FEDS Working Paper No. 2014-29
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 19 Apr 2014
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 71 (336,761)
Citation 15

Abstract:

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forward guidance, fiscal multiplier, sticky prices, sticky information

26.

Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-009
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 19 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 23 Feb 2019
Ben S. Bernanke, Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 67 (347,601)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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Intererst rates, Model comparison, Monetary policy

27.

Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound

FEDS Working Paper No. 2013-16
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 09 Apr 2013
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 64 (355,859)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Monetary policy, Treasury yields, private yields

28.

A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting

FEDS Working Paper No. 2006-45
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 14 Dec 2006
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 63 (358,802)
Citation 19

Abstract:

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Phillips curve, new-keynesian model, inflation persistence

29.

Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World

FEDS Working Paper No. 2017-080
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 07 Sep 2017
Michael T. Kiley and John Roberts
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 51 (396,710)
Citation 18

Abstract:

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Interest rates, Model comparison, Monetary policy

30.

Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-Based (EDO) Model of the U.S. Economy: 2010 Version

FEDS Working Paper No. 29
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 19 Mar 2011
Michael T. Kiley, Jean-Philippe Laforte and Hess T. Chung
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 48 (406,989)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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DSGE model, policy model

31.

Output Gaps

FEDS Working Paper No. 2010-27
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 14 Mar 2011
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 44 (421,801)
Citation 6

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Business Cycles, Potential Output

32.

Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: Gains and Pitfalls in a Model of Financial Intermediation

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-078, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.078
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 27 Sep 2015
Michael T. Kiley and Jae Sim
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 43 (425,572)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Bayesian estimation, DSGE models, Macroprudential policy, Monetary policy

33.

Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: Policy Considerations

FEDS Working Paper No. 2011-28
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 20 May 2011
Michael T. Kiley and Jae Sim
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 37 (449,935)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Capital market friction, financial intermediary, capital constraint, Liquidity based asset pricing, asset purchase program, capital injection policy, regulatory capital standards

34.

Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy

FEDS Working Paper No. 2018-059
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 21 Feb 2019
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 36 (454,267)

Abstract:

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Stochastic simulation, Mismeasurement, Monetary policy, Policy analysis, Uncertainty

35.

The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-076
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 27 Nov 2019
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 32 (472,105)

Abstract:

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Global Factors, Natural Rate, World Interest Rate

36.

Unemployment Risk

FEDS Working Paper No. 2018-067
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 05 Oct 2018
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 24 (514,189)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Credit, GDP at risk, Risk management

37.

Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Re-Examination

NBER Working Paper No. w20611
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 27 Oct 2014
Hess T. Chung, Edward Herbst and Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 8 (613,973)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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38.

Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble

Economic Policy, Vol. 26, No. 66, pp. 233-283, 2011
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 04 Apr 2011
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Korea University, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 3 (648,971)
Citation 1
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39.

Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy

The Manchester School, Vol. 86, pp. 21-49, 2018
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 26 Sep 2018
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 1 (670,461)
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40.

Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Forthcoming
Posted: 06 Nov 2001
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

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staggered price setting, Calvo price setting

41.

Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Series 96-23
Posted: 21 Oct 1996
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

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The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Finance and Econ. Disc. Papers 96-33
Posted: 14 Oct 1996
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

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The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models

Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 5, pp. 1-7, August 2002
Posted: 08 Sep 2003
Michael T. Kiley
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

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P-bar Model, Output/Inflation Correlation, Partial Adjustment (Calvo Model), Phase Shift, Staggered Price Setting