Tara M. Sinclair

George Washington University - Department of Economics

Professor of Economics and International Affairs

2115 G Street NW

Monroe Hall Suite 340

Washington, DC 20052

United States

http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc/

George Washington University - Elliott School of International Affairs (ESIA)

Professor of Economics and International Affairs

2201 G Street, N.W.

Washington, DC 20052

United States

http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc/

George Washington University - Institute For International Economic Policy (GWIIEP)

Affiliated Faculty

1957 E Street, N.W.

Suite 502

Washington, DC 20052

United States

George Washington University - Research Program on Forecasting

Co-Director

1922 F Street, NW

Old Main, Suite 208

Washington, DC 20052

United States

George Washington University - George Washington Institute of Public Policy (GWIPP)

Research Affiliate

United States

Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)

Research Associate

ANU College of Business and Economics

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200

Australia

Halle Institute for Economic Research

Research Professor

P.O. Box 11 03 61

Kleine Maerkerstrasse 8

D-06017 Halle, 06108

Germany

http://www.dpe-halle.de/asp/person.asp?xtr&Lang=e

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

16

DOWNLOADS
Rank 43,271

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Top 43,271

in Total Papers Downloads

1,641

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 18,901

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 18,901

in Total Papers Citations

41

CROSSREF CITATIONS

14

Scholarly Papers (16)

1.

Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 16 Dec 2005 Last Revised: 16 Sep 2008
Tara M. Sinclair
George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 409 (106,075)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Asymmetry, Unobserved Components, Markov-Switching, Business Cycles

2.

Testing Stationarity with Unobserved Components Models

UNSW Business School Research Paper No. 2012 ECON 41B
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 17 Oct 2012 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2014
James Morley, Irina Panovska and Tara M. Sinclair
University of Sydney - School of Economics, University of Texas at Dallas and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 229 (194,739)
Citation 7

Abstract:

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Stationarity Test, Likelihood Ratio, Unobserved Components, Parametric Bootstrap, Monte Carlo Simulation, Small-Sample Inference

3.

The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 02 May 2005 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2007
Tara M. Sinclair
George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 218 (203,940)
Citation 16

Abstract:

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Unobserved Components, Business Cycle, Trend GDP, Cyclical Unemployment, Natural Rate of Unemployment

4.

Working from Home after COVID-19: Evidence from Job Postings in 20 Countries

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 23 Mar 2022 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
Indeed.com, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), Indeed.com, University of Oxford, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 136 (304,605)

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remote working, telework, COVID-19, mobility restrictions, stringency index

Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage

FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2003-038E
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 19 Apr 2006 Last Revised: 09 Nov 2008
Leora Friedberg, Michael Owyang and Tara M. Sinclair
University of Virginia - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 68 (480,662)

Abstract:

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Pension, Contracts, On-the-job search, Job tenure, Matching models, Job-to-job flows

Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage

NBER Working Paper No. w11808
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 16 Feb 2006 Last Revised: 08 Oct 2022
Leora Friedberg, Michael Owyang and Tara M. Sinclair
University of Virginia - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 28 (692,494)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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6.

Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 03 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2010
Sinchan Mitra and Tara M. Sinclair
School of Economics, University of Queensland and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (413,077)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Trend-Cycle Decompositions, Business Cycles, Correlations, Real GDP

7.

Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap

IMF Working Paper No. 11/79
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 13 Apr 2011
Julia Bersch and Tara M. Sinclair
affiliation not provided to SSRN and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 75 (450,214)

Abstract:

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Demand, Economic growth, External shocks, Inflation rates, Mining sector, Mongolia, Production, Supply

8.

Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 09 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 14 Mar 2010
Tara M. Sinclair, Frederick Joutz and H.O. Stekler
George Washington University - Department of Economics, George Washington University and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 70 (467,311)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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Forecast Evaluation, Federal Reserve, Systematic Errors, Recessions

9.

Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19

CAMA Working Paper No. 63/2020
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 07 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 13 Aug 2020
William D. Larson and Tara M. Sinclair
Federal Housing Finance Agency and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 65 (485,566)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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panel forecasting, time series forecasting, forecast evaluation, structural breaks, Google Trends

10.

Sentiment and uncertainty about regulation

CAMA Working Paper No. 54/2021
Number of pages: 81 Posted: 08 Jul 2021
Tara M. Sinclair and Zhoudan Xie
George Washington University - Department of Economics and George Washington University - GW Regulatory Studies Center
Downloads 58 (513,394)

Abstract:

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Regulation, text analysis, NLP, sentiment analysis, uncertainty

11.

A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 1523
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 22 Oct 2015
George Washington University, KeyBank, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 53 (534,831)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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correlated unobserved components, potential output, natural rate of unemployment

How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

CAMA Working Paper 26/2013
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 08 Jun 2013
Michael D. Bradley, Dennis W. Jansen and Tara M. Sinclair
George Washington University, Texas A&M University - Department of Economics and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 23 (733,611)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Consumer Price Index, Inflation, Unobserved Components, Food and Energy Prices

How Well Does 'Core' Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 16 May 2013
Michael D. Bradley, Dennis W. Jansen and Tara M. Sinclair
George Washington University, Texas A&M University - Department of Economics and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (798,012)

Abstract:

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Consumer Price Index, Inflation, Unobserved Components, Food and Energy Prices

13.

A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law

FRB St. Louis Working Paper No. 2015-29
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 06 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jan 2019
George Washington University, KeyBank, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 32 (646,106)

Abstract:

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Correlated unobserved components, potential output, natural rate of unemployment

14.

Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between the US and China

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 09 Dec 2009
Yueqing Jia and Tara M. Sinclair
George Washington University - Department of Economics and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 30 (659,487)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Unobserved Components, Business Cycles, Economic Growth

15.

Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?

CAMA Working Paper No. 47/2016
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 27 Jul 2016
Pao-Lin Tien, Tara M. Sinclair and Edward Gamber
Bureau of Economic Analysis, George Washington University - Department of Economics and Congressional Budget Office
Downloads 28 (673,463)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Federal Reserve, Taylor rule, forecast evaluation, monetary policy shocks

16.

Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition

CAMA Working Paper No. 55/2014
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2014
Hans Christian Mueller, Tara M. Sinclair and H.O. Stekler
Independent, George Washington University - Department of Economics and George Washington University - Department of Economics
Downloads 16 (770,940)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Mahalanobis Distance, forecasting competition, GDP components, German macroeconomic data