Eleftherios Giovanis

Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

Associate Professor of Economics

Gazi Mustafa Kemal Mahallesi

Kaynak Caddesi Seyrek Menemen

Izmir, 35660

Turkey

Economic Research Forum (ERF)

21 Al-Sad Al-Aaly St.

(P.O. Box: 12311)

Dokki, Cairo

Egypt

  • Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

  • Economic Research Forum (ERF)

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

110

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20,367

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Top 29,949

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48

Scholarly Papers (110)

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1.

An Algorithm Using GARCH Process, Monte-Carlo Simulation and Wavelets Analysis for Stock Prediction

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 21 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 06 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 1,496 (27,444)

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GARCH, wavelets, forecasting, Monte-Carlo, wavelet discrete transformation

2.

MATLAB Applications of Trading Rules and GARCH with Wavelets Analysis

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 1,450 (28,781)

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MATLAB, moving average, MACD, trading rules, technical analysis, GARCH, wavelets, Monte-Carlo

3.

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Models and Artificial Neural Networks Modeling with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Mar 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 1,007 (48,773)
Citation 2

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Capital asset pricing model, Arbitrage pricing theory, ARCH, principal components, neural networks, particle swarm optimization algorithm

4.

The Turn-of-The-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model

Downloads 968 (51,589)
Citation 2

The Turn-of-The-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model

International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 7(3), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 07 Dec 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 570 (102,217)
Citation 2

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Calendar Effects, GARCH, Periodic-GARCH, Stock Returns, Turn of the Month Effect

The Turn-of-the-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH) Model

International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 7 (3): 43-61
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 25 Mar 2015
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 398 (157,658)

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Calendar Effects, GARCH, Periodic-GARCH, Stock Returns, Turn of the Month Effect

5.

Applications of Neural Network Radial Basis Function in Economics and Financial Time Series

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 890 (57,891)
Citation 1

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Radial Basis Function, Neural Networks, Time-Series, Forecasting, Stock Returns, MATLAB, Error Backpropagation Algorithm

6.

The Month-of-The-Year Effect: Evidence from GARCH Models in Fifty Five Stock Markets

Aydın İktisat Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 20-49, 2016
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 27 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 19 Mar 2017
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 756 (72,172)
Citation 1

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Seasonality, Stock Returns, Calendar Effects, Month of the Year Effect, Asymmetric GARCH Models, Asymmetry Tests, January Effect

7.

Application of ARCH-GARCH Models and Feed-Forward Neural Networks with Bayesian Regularization in Capital Asset Pricing Model: The Case of Two Stocks in Athens Exchange Stock Market

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 10 Jan 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 656 (86,583)
Citation 2

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CAPM- GARCH- feed forward neural networks and Bayesian regularization

8.

Applications of Least Mean Square (LMS) Algorithm Regression in Time-Series Analysis

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 647 (88,128)
Citation 2

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LMS, Least Mean Square Algorithm, MATLAB, Time-Series, Stock Returns, Gross Domestic Product, Forecast

9.

GARCH - Monte-Carlo Simulation Models with Wavelets Decomposition Algorithm for Stock Returns Prediction

International Journal of Computer Information Systems, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 17 Apr 2011 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2011
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 463 (133,617)

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Forecasting, MACD, MATLAB, Moving Average, Stock Returns, Random Walk

10.

Feed-Forward Neural Networks Regressions with Genetic Algorithms: Applications in Econometrics and Finance

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 451 (137,952)
Citation 1

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Feed-Forward Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Time-Series, stock returns, inflation rate, gross domestic product, Forecasting, MATLAB

11.

Calendar Anomalies in Athens Exchange Stock Market - An Application of GARCH Models and the Neural Network Radial Basis Function

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 09 Sep 2008
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 444 (140,516)
Citation 1

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day of the week and month effect, recursive OLS and GARCH, Radial basis function, neural networks, bootstrap

12.

Sharpe's Asymmetric Beta Model with GARCH and Generalized Regression of Neural Networks

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 10 Jan 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 433 (144,561)

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GARCH, recursive GARCH, asymmetric beta model, Generalized regression neural networks, bootstrap and random resampling

13.

Implications of COVID-19: The Effect of Working from Home on Financial and Mental Well-Being in the UK

International Journal of Health Policy and Management, 2020
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 23 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2021
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 418 (150,712)

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COVID-19; Difference-in-Differences; Financial Well-Being; Mental Well-being; Working from Home

14.

MATLAB Routines for Moving Median with Trend and Seasonality for Time Series Prediction

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 17 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 417 (151,123)

Abstract:

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moving median, MATLAB

15.

Applications of Feed-Forward Neural Networks with Error Backpropagation Algorithm and Non-Linear Methods in MATLAB

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 377 (169,169)

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Feed-Forward Neural Networks, Error Backpropagation Algorithm, Non-Linear Methods, Time-Series, Inflation Rate, Treasury Bills, Forecast, MATLAB

16.

ARIMA and Neural Networks: An Application to the Real GNP Growth Rate and the Unemployment Rate of U.S.A.

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 26 Mar 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 356 (180,266)

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ARIMA, Radial basis function, Multilayer perceptron, Generalized regression neural networks, stationarity, unit root

17.

Accommodating Employees with Disabilities: The Role of Flexible Employment Schemes in Europe

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 24 Aug 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 342 (188,367)
Citation 2

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Disability; European Working Conditions Survey; Flexible Employment Schemes; Flexi-Time; Health Conditions; Homework; Job Quality; Job Satisfaction; Teleworking; Wage Gap

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Logit regression, Discriminant analysis, neural networks, wavelets, Monte Carlo, opinion polls

19.

'Moving Median': A New Method of Forecasting

Economics Working Paper Archive
Number of pages: 63 Posted: 13 Nov 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 305 (213,071)

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basic econometrics, moving average, moving median, forecasting, Arima, Armed-autoregressive moving median model

20.

MATLAB Routine for Bootstrapping Statistic Hypothesis for Calendar Effects in Stock Returns

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 17 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 288 (226,365)

Abstract:

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calendar effects/anomalies, MATLAB, stock returns

21.

Bootstrapping Fuzzy-GARCH Regressions on the Day of the Week Effect in Stock Returns: Applications in MATLAB

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 27 Apr 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 287 (227,176)

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Stock Returns, Day of the Week Effect, Calendar Effects/Anomalies, GARCH Regression, Fuzzy Logic, Fuzzy Rules, Fuzzy Regression, Bootstrapping Regression, MATLAB

22.

Moving Median With Trend and Seasonality

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 15 Feb 2008
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 270 (241,993)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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basic econometrics, moving median, forecasting, trend, seasonality

23.

Flexible Employment Arrangements and Workplace Performance

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 07 Jan 2016
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 252 (259,512)
Citation 1

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Financial Performance, Labour Productivity, Propensity Score, Teleworking, Workplace Employment Relations Survey

24.

Exploring the Impact of Job Satisfaction Domains on Firm Performance: Evidence from Great Britain

Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research,10(2): 96-114, 2020
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 17 Jul 2020
Georgina Eberegbe and Eleftherios Giovanis
Manchester Metropolitan University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 249 (262,540)

Abstract:

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Employment relationships; Instrumental Variables; Job Satisfaction; Job Security; Organizational Performance; Workforce Employment Relations Survey

25.

Health Expenditures in Greece: A Multiple Least Squares Regression and Cointegration Analysis Using Bootstrap Simulation in EVIEWS

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 18 Mar 2009 Last Revised: 24 May 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 243 (268,975)

Abstract:

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bootstrap, cointegration, regression, health expenditures, cluster

26.

Bootstrap Simulations for Finance Portfolio

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 16 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 235 (277,895)

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Keywords: Markowitz portfolio theory, bootstrap simulation, stocks, efficient frontier

27.

Application of Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Genetic Algorithms in Crisis Periods Prediction

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 234 (279,105)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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ANFIS, Discrete Choice Models, Genetics Algorithms, Financial Crisis, US Economy

28.

The Relationship Between Flexible Employment Arrangements and Workplace Performance in Great Britain

Downloads 233 (280,282)
Citation 2

The Relationship Between Flexible Employment Arrangements and Workplace Performance in Great Britain

International Journal of Manpower, 39(1), 51-70, 2018
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 233 (278,679)
Citation 2

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Financial performance, Teleworking, Labour productivity, Flexible employment, Workplace employment relations survey

The Relationship Between Flexible Employment Arrangements and Workplace Performance in Great Britain

International Journal of Manpower, 39(1), 2018, DOI:/abs/10.1108/IJM-04-2016-0083
Posted: 05 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

Abstract:

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Financial Performance, Teleworking, Labour Productivity, Flexible Employment, Workplace Employment Relations Survey

29.

Using Decision Trees for Prediction of US Economic Recessions

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 07 Dec 2012
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 233 (280,282)
Citation 1

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Decision Trees, Discrete choice models, Economic crisis, Economy of USA, Forecasting, Logit, Probit , Recessions

30.

A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 26 Sep 2010 Last Revised: 09 Nov 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 229 (285,013)

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ANFIS, Binary Logistic Regression, Financial Distress, Panel Data

31.

Do the Flexible Employment Arrangements Increase Job Satisfaction and Employee Loyalty? Evidence from Bayesian Networks and Instrumental Variables

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Special Issue on: Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Socio-Economic Systems, 9(1/2), 84-115, 2019
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 222 (293,601)
Citation 1

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BN, Bayesian networks, DAGs, directed acyclic graphs, employee loyalty, employment arrangements, flexible timing, job satisfaction, teleworking, WERS, workplace employment relations survey

32.

Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Models with Ordinary Least Squares and Genetic Algorithms Optimization

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 219 (297,496)
Citation 1

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Smoothing Transition, Exponential, Logistic, Gaussian, Generalized Bell Function, Tangent Hyperbolic, Stock Returns, Unemployment Rate, Forecast, Genetic Algorithms, MATLAB

33.

Calendar Effects in Fifty-Five Stock Market Indices

Global Journal of Finance and Management, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2009
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 23 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 217 (300,146)
Citation 9

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Calendar Effects/Anomalies, Bootstrapping, Stock Returns

34.

Calendar Effects and Seasonality on Returns and Volatility

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 24 Jun 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 199 (325,565)
Citation 2

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Bootstrapping, Calendar Effects, Seasonality, Stock Returns, Volatility

35.

A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach in the Prediction of Financial Stability and Distress Periods

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 28 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 196 (330,203)

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Financial Distress, ANFIS, Neuro-Fuzzy, Fuzzy Rules, Fuzzy Membership Functions, Triangle, Gaussian, MALTAB

36.

The Effects of Teleworking on Housework Division and Well-Being of Couples

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 22 Nov 2016
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 179 (358,710)

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Gender Roles, Household Production, Teleworking, Well-Being

37.

The Econometric Discrete Dependent Variable Multinomial Logit Model 'An Application on a Local Furniture Market Enterprise'

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 15 Dec 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 173 (369,646)

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discrete choice models, cluster analysis, principal components, furniture market, market research

38.

'Moving Median' - a Method of Autocorrelation Solution

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 14 Dec 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 173 (369,646)

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Basic econometrics, moving median, autocorrelation solution, method of Durbin in two steps, repetitive method of Cochrane-Orcutt

39.

Do the Flexible Employment Arrangements Increase Job Satisfaction and the Loyalty of the Employees? An Evidence from Great Britain

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 07 Jan 2016
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 169 (377,445)

Abstract:

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Bayesian Networks, Directed Acyclic Graphs, Employee Loyalty, Employment Arrangements, Job Satisfaction, Teleworking, Workplace Employment Relations Survey

40.

Determinants of Profitability: Evidence from US Firms

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 19 May 2015 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2020
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 161 (395,659)

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Econometrics, Patents, Profitability, Patents, Relatedness Measures, Triadic Families

41.

Estimation and Forecasting with Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Model: Evidence from Drachma-US Dollar Spot Exchange Rate

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 22 Mar 2009
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 145 (429,242)

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smoothing transition,spot exchange rate,forecasting

42.

Relationship between Recycling Rate and Air Pollution: Evidence from Waste Management Municipality Survey in the State of Massachusetts

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 12 Aug 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 142 (436,506)

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Air Pollution, Data, Municipality Survey, Recycling, Solid waste services, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

43.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from US Compustat Firms and Triadic Patent Families

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 10(3), 258-272, 2015
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 140 (441,488)

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firm characteristics, industry characteristics, innovation knowledge, panel data, procyclical factors, countercyclical factors, relatedness measures, total factor productivity, TFP, USA, United States, triadic patents, technology diversification

44.

The Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Health and Living Standards in Turkey: Evidence from Structural Equation Modelling and Regression Discontinuity Design

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 07 May 2020 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2022
Oznur Ozdamar, Eleftherios Giovanis and Burcu Özdaş
Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 130 (468,583)

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Health Status; Propensity Score Matching; Regression Discontinuity Design; Structural Equation Modelling; Unemployment Benefits

45.

The Impact of Air and Noise Pollution on Health Status in Turkey: A Willingness to Pay Approach

Sosyoekonomi, 25(32), 213-238 (2017)
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 04 May 2018 Last Revised: 10 May 2018
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 130 (468,583)

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Air Pollution, Noise Pollution, Willingness to Pay, Health Status, Pseudo-Panel Data

46.

Application of Mean Propensity to Consumption and Interest Rate of Keynes Theory and the Application of Cobb-Douglas Model and Solow Theory in the Greek Rural Economy

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Nov 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 130 (468,583)

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basic econometrics, mean propensity to consumption, Cobb-Douglas model, Solow theory

47.

Application of Stationary Wavelet Support Vector Machines for the Prediction of UK Economic Recession and Expansion Periods

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 12 Jan 2013
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 122 (492,592)
Citation 1

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discrete choice models, economic crisis, economy of United Kingdom, Markov Switching Regime, Stationary Wavelets Transform, Support Vector Machines

48.

Cultural Integration of First-Generation Immigrants: Evidence from European Union Countries

Review of Economic Analysis 15 (2023)
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 18 Nov 2021 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Sacit Hadi Akdede
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Izmir Bakircay University
Downloads 117 (508,450)
Citation 1

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Cultural Integration; Discrete Choice Models; First-Generation Immigrants; International Migration; Integration; Multiculturalism

49.

Ordinary Least Squares and Genetic Algorithms Optimization in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Models

International Journal of Computer Information Systems, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 17 Apr 2011 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2011
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 112 (525,580)

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Genetic Algorithms, MATLAB, Membership Functions, Smoothing Transition Autoregressive

50.

Study of Discrete Choice Models and Artificial Intelligence Approaches in the Prediction of Economic Crises

International Journal of Computer Information Systems, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 17 Apr 2011 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2011
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 111 (529,133)

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Discrete choice models, Feed-Forward Neural Networks, Neuro-Fuzzy, Fuzzy rules, Membership functions, Financial crisis, US economy

51.

Who Pays More: Public, Private, Both or None? The Effects of Health Insurance Schemes and Health Reforms on Out-of-Pocket and Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Turkey

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 28 May 2016 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2016
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 106 (547,477)

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Catastrophic Health Expenditures, Differences-in-Differences, Health Insurance Schemes, Health Reforms, Out-of-Pocket Expenditures, Propensity Score Matching, Pseudo-Panel, Turkey

52.

Neuro-Fuzzy Approach for the Predictions of Economic Crisis

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 28 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 100 (571,054)

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Economic Crisis, ANFIS, Neuro-Fuzzy, Fuzzy Rules, Triangle Function, Gaussian Function, Generalized Bell Function Forecasting, Discrete Choice Models, Logit, Probit, Economy of USA, MATLAB

53.

Study of Discrete Choice Models and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Economic Analysis and Policy, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 79-96, 2012
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 Mar 2012 Last Revised: 11 May 2016
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 98 (578,740)

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Artificial Intelligence, Discrete Choice Models, Financial Crisis, Neuro-Fuzzy, US Economy

54.

The Link between Health Condition Costs and Standard of Living Through Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures and Labour Market Outcomes in Turkey: A Structural Equation Modelling

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 28 May 2016
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 86 (628,314)

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Disability Costs, Health Insurance, Standard of Living, Structural Equation Modelling, Transportation Expenditures

55.

Evaluation of Ozone Smog Alerts on Actual Ozone Concentrations: A Case Study in North Carolina

International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 18(5-6), pp. 465–477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 03 Oct 2014 Last Revised: 11 Jan 2017
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 84 (637,235)

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Air Quality, Clean Air Works, Differences-in-Differences-in-Differences, Ozone concentrations, Regression Discontinuity Design, Smog alerts

56.

The Socio-Cultural Integration of Immigrants in Germany: Changes across Generations

Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal, 2022; DOI: 10.1108/EDI-01-2022-0013
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 10 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Sacit Hadi Akdede
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Izmir Bakircay University
Downloads 81 (650,960)

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International Migration; First and Second-Generation Immigrants; Panel Data; Socio-Cultural Participation

57.

A New Approach in the Examination on the Day-of-the Week Effect Using Fuzzy Rule Based Regressions

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 22 Jun 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 81 (650,960)

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Calendar effects, Periodic-GARCH model, stock returns, Turn of the month effect

58.

The Effects of the 2008 Health Reform on Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures in Turkey

University Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences (Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi ), 36, 71-102, 2017
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 80 (655,687)

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Difference-in-Difference Approach, Health Insurance Schemes, Health Reforms, Out-of-Pocket Expenditures, Propensity Score Matching Method, Pseudo-Panel Data, Turkey

59.

Econometric Analysis of O.U.T.A. - Organisation of Urban Transportations of Athens

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 28 Sep 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 79 (660,402)

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basic econometrics, simultaneous equations, Koyck model

60.

The Relationship Between Teleworking, Traffic and Air Pollution

Atmospheric Pollution Research, 9(1), 1-14, 2018
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 74 (684,971)
Citation 3

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Air quality, Fixed effects, Instrumental variables, Panel data,Teleworking, Traffic

61.

Additional Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 28 Aug 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 72 (695,453)

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Smoothing Transition, Exponential, Logistic, Gaussian, Generalized Bell Function, Tangent Hyperbolic, Stock Returns, Unemployment Rate, Forecast, MATLAB

62.

The Impact of Climate Change on Budget Balances and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

Climatic Change, 172, 34, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03388-x
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 14 Jul 2022
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 70 (706,241)
Citation 1

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Budget Balances; Climate Change; Middle East and North Africa Region; Public Debt; Standardized Precipitation Index; Stationarity

63.

The Hunting in the Province of Elassona

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 28 Sep 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 70 (706,241)

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hunting, basic econometrics with dummy variables

64.

Youth Multidimensional Poverty and Its Dynamics: Evidence From Selected Countries in the MENA Region

Economic Research Forum (ERF), Working Paper No. 1339
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 12 May 2020
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 69 (711,779)

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Alkire-Foster method; MENA region; Multidimensional poverty; Non-monetary poverty

65.

The Effect of Survivors’ Benefits on Poverty and Health Status of Widowed Women: A Turkish Case Study

Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 6(3), 232-250, 2016
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 01 Jul 2019
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 69 (711,779)

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Health status, Poverty, Structural equation modeling, Survivor benefits, Widowed mothers

66.

Application of Stationary Wavelet Support Vector Machines for the Prediction of Economic Recessions

International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 3(7), 226-237, 2013
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 17 Nov 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 69 (711,779)

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Discrete choice models, Stationary Wavelets Transform, Economic crisis, Markov Switching Regime, Support Vector Machines

67.

The Inflation in European Union

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 28 Sep 2005
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 69 (711,779)

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basic statistics and econometrics, forecasting

68.

Being Healthy in Turkey: A Pseudo-Panel Data Analysis

Hacettepe Üniversity Journal of Economics and Administrative Science, 35(1), 89-110, 2017
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 30 Jun 2019
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 63 (746,666)

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Health status, pseudo-panel, socioeconomic status, indoor air pollution

69.

The Nexus Between Business-Investment Climate and Firm Performance in The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

The Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper No. 1277, 2018
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 61 (759,058)
Citation 1

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Business and Investment Climate, Economic Growth, Firm Performance, Governance, Institutions, MENA Region, Productivity

70.

The Effects of International Migration on Well-Being of Natives and Immigrants: Evidence from Germany, Switzerland and the UK

SN Business & Economics 2(6), 2022
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 10 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 53 (813,617)

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Employment; Life Satisfaction; Instrumental Variables; International Migration; Panel Data; Psychological Well-Being

71.

Instrumental Variables in Structural Equation Modelling: An application on the Impact of Labour Factors on Health and Standard of Livings

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2022
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 10 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 52 (821,094)

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Employment Support Programmes; Health Costs; Instrumental Variables; Policy Evaluation; Standard of Living; Structural Equation Modelling

72.

Relationship Between Happiness and Income: Evidence from Panel Smoothing Transition Regression (PSTR) in Great Britain

International Journal of Happiness and Development, 2(4), 346 - 370, 2015
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 52 (821,094)

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happiness, life satisfaction, household income, panel smoothing transition regression, PSTR models, UK, United Kingdom, British Household Panel Survey, BHPS, subjective well-being

73.

Productivity and Resource Misallocation: Evidence From Firms in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Countries

The Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper No. 1266, 2018
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 03 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 50 (836,316)
Citation 2

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Firm Level Data, Productivity, Resource Misallocation, State-Business Relations, World Bank Enterprise Surveys

74.

Participation in Socio-Cultural Activities and Subjective Well-Being of Natives and Migrants: Evidence from Germany and the United Kingdom

International Review of Economics volume 68, 423–463, 2021
Posted: 12 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 49 (844,127)

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Cultural and Social Integration; Life Satisfaction; International Migration; Panel Data; Psychological Well-Being

75.

Regional Employment Support Programmes And Multidimensional Poverty of Youth in Turkey

Economic Research Forum (ERF), Working Paper No. 1338
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 12 May 2020
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 49 (844,127)

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Alkire-Foster method; Differences-in-Differences; Employment Support Programmes; Regional Investment Incentives Scheme; Multidimensional poverty; Propensity Score Matching

76.

Valuing the Effects of the Environmental Factors on Health Problems in Britain

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 17 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2020
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 48 (852,145)

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Air pollution, Environmental valuation, Health Diseases

77.

Coping Strategies, Well-Being and Inequalities during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 12 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 47 (860,377)

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Coping Strategies; COVID-19; Inequalities; MENA Region; Mental Health; Perceived Economics Situation; Risks; Subjective Well-Being

78.

Study of Discrete Choice Models and Fuzzy Rule Based Systems in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Fuzzy Economic Review XIX, 1, 2014
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 07 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 29 Nov 2017
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 45 (877,139)

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crisis, discrete choice models, fuzzy rules, fuzzy regression, sigmoid membership function, Logit regression, Probit regression

79.

Impact of Migration Policies on Socio-Cultural Participation and Well-being: Evidence from the Migration Act of 2000 in Germany

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 2022
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 11 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 42 (903,492)

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Cultural participation; First-generation immigrants; International migration; Panel data; Subjective well-being

80.

Who is Left Behind? Altruism of Giving, Happiness and Mental Health during the COVID-19 Period in the UK

Applied Research in Quality of Life 2020
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 23 Dec 2020
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 42 (903,492)

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Altruism; COVID-19; Difference-in-Differences; Happiness; Money Transfer; Subjective Mental Well-being

81.

Cultural Participation in Later Life among Old-aged Immigrants in the Czech Republic

Politická ekonomie, 2021, 69 (2), 193–226, https://doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1311
Posted: 12 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Sacit Hadi Akdede
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Izmir Bakircay University
Downloads 40 (921,797)

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Cultural Participation, EURO-D, First and Second Generation Immigrants, Integration, International Migration, Old Age, Ordered Probit Simultaneous Equations, Subjective Well-being

82.

Well-Being of Old Natives and Immigrants in Europe: Does the Socio-Cultural Integration Matter?

International Journal of Happiness and Development, Vol. 7, No. 4, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 10 Jan 2023
Eleftherios Giovanis and Sacit Hadi Akdede
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Izmir Bakircay University
Downloads 37 (950,822)

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Cultural and Social Integration; EURO-D; Life Satisfaction; International Migration; Old Age; Panel Data; Psychological Well-Being; Religious Activities; Sports Events; The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe; Voluntary Work

83.

State Business Relations and The Dynamics of Job Flows in Egypt and Turkey

The Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper No. 1271, 2018
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 33 (991,599)
Citation 2

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Business Environment, Firm Level Data, Firm Growth, Job Creation, State- Business Relations

84.

Worthy to Lose Some Money for Better Air Quality: Applications of Bayesian Networks on the Causal Effect of Income and Air Pollution on Life Satisfaction

Empirical Economics, DOI: 10.1007%2Fs00181-018-1509-5, 2018
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 03 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 33 (991,599)
Citation 2

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Air quality, Bayesian networks, Causal inference, Directed acyclic graph, Environmental valuation, Life satisfaction

85.

The Causal Effects of Survivors’ Benefits on Health Status and Poverty of Widows in Turkey: Evidence from Bayesian Networks

Economic Analysis and Policy, 53, 46-61, 2017
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 30 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2019
Oznur Ozdamar and Eleftherios Giovanis
Aydın Adnan Menderes University and Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business
Downloads 32 (1,002,268)
Citation 1

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Bayesian Networks, Directed Acyclic Graphs, Health status, Poverty, Survivor benefits

86.

Health Status, Mental Health and Air Quality: Evidence from Pensioners in Europe

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, March 2018, doi:10.1007/s11356-018-1534-0
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 04 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University
Downloads 31 (1,013,176)

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Air Pollution, Early Retirements, Health Status, Old Age Pensions, Structural Equation Modelling

87.

A Collective Household Labour Supply Model with Disability: Evidence from Iraq

Journal of Family and Economic Issues, (2019), 40, 209-225
Posted: 03 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University

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Collective model, Disability, Household behaviour, Labour supply, Sharing rule, Unitary model

88.

The Impact of Air Pollution on Health Problems in Britain

International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 8(2), pp. 163–186 (2016)
Posted: 05 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University

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air pollution, British Household Panel Survey, BHPS, environmental valuation, health diseases, hospitalisation costs, UK, United Kingdom, air quality, skin conditions, allergies, chest pains, breathing problems, heart problems, ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide

89.

The Effects and Costs of Air Pollution on Health Status in Great Britain

International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management, vol. 5, issue 1, 52-67, 2016
Posted: 05 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis and Oznur Ozdamar
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business and Aydın Adnan Menderes University

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90.

Does Teleworking Affect Housework Division and Improve the Well-Being of Couples?

International Journal of Happiness and Development, 3(3), 256-282
Posted: 04 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Gender Roles, Household Production, Telecommuting, Teleworking, Well-Being

91.

Are Women Happier When Their Spouse Is Teleworker?

Journal of Happiness Studies, 19(3),719–754
Posted: 04 May 2018
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Bayesian Networks, Directed Acyclic Graphs, Gender Roles, Household Production, Quality-of-Life, Teleworking

92.

Relationship between Recycling Rate and Air Pollution: Waste Management in the State of Massachusetts

Waste Management, 40, 192-203, 2015
Posted: 16 May 2015
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Municipality survey, Recycling, Solid waste services, Stochastic frontier analysis

93.

The Effect of Smog – Ozone Warnings and a Vanpool Program on Traffic Volume in York County of South Carolina

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 42(2),195 – 220, (2015)
Posted: 07 Oct 2014 Last Revised: 09 May 2015
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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air quality, differences-in-differences, ground-level ozone, regression discontinuity, smog alerts, traffic

94.

Relationship between Well-Being and Recycling Rates: Evidence from Life Satisfaction Approach in Britain

Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3(2), 201-214
Posted: 01 May 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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air pollution, happiness, life satisfaction approach, recycling, subjective well-being

95.

Relationship between Recycling Rate and Air Pollution in Britain

The Empirical Economics Letters, 13(1)
Posted: 01 May 2014
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Air Pollution, Recycling, Solid waste, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

96.

Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

Economic Modelling, (2013), 30, 602-611
Posted: 07 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 02 Jul 2019
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Air pollution, Economic growth, Environmental quality, Environmental Kuznets curve, Logit

97.

Environmental Kuznets Curve and Air Pollution in City of London: Evidence from New Panel Smoothing Transition Regressions

International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 79(3): 393-404, 2012
Posted: 07 Dec 2012
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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air quality, air pollution, environmental Kuznets curve, environmental sustainability, income, smoothing transition functions

98.

Application of a Modified Generalized Regression Neural Networks Algorithm in Economics and Finance

International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2011
Posted: 17 Apr 2011
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Autoregressive Moving Average, Forecasting, GARCH, Generalized Regression Neural Networks, MATLAB, Stock Returns

99.

Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in Interest Rates Effects on Stock Returns

Indian Journal of Computer Science and Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2011
Posted: 27 Feb 2011
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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ANFIS, Interest rates, Stock returns

100.

A Study on the Day-of-The-Week Effect in Fifty Five Stock Markets: Evidence from Asymmetric GARCH Models

International Review of Business and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2010
Posted: 13 Oct 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Stock Returns, Day of the Week, GARCH, Asymmetric

101.

A Study of Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Gross Domestic Product Growth Forecasting

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 13 Oct 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross Domestic Product, Neuro-Fuzzy

102.

Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 27 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed- Forward neural networks,, Gross Domestic Product

103.

Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models with Genetic Algorithm in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 27 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neural networks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

104.

Application of Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System in Macroeconomic Variables Forecasting

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 27 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

105.

Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 27 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Forecasting, Neuro-Fuzzy, Smoothing transition, Time-series

106.

Proposal of Additional Fuzzy Membership Functions in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 64, 2010
Posted: 27 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Forecast , Fuzzy Membership Functions, Smoothing Transition, Time-Series

107.

Application of Logit Model and Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for the Prediction of Financial Crisis Periods in US Economy

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 2, No. 2, 2010
Posted: 20 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Binary logic, Error analysis, National economy, Neural net devices, Pattern recognition, United States of America

108.

Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology
Posted: 20 Sep 2010 Last Revised: 01 Sep 2022
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, US economy

109.

Applications of Logit and Fuzzy Regressions for the Prediction of Economic Recessions in US Economy

International Review of Business and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2010
Posted: 20 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Fuzzy, Logit, US economy, Financial crisis

110.

Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models in Stock Returns Forecasting

Journal of Computational Optimization in Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No.1, 2010
Posted: 19 Sep 2010
Eleftherios Giovanis
Izmir Bakircay University Department of International Trade and Business

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Feed-Forward Neural Networks, Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models, Stock Returns, Forecasting