Robert W. Rich

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

East 6th & Superior

Cleveland, OH 44101-1387

United States

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SCHOLARLY PAPERS

36

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Scholarly Papers (36)

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1.

A Review of Core Inflation and an Evaluation of its Measures

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 236
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 05 Jan 2006
Robert W. Rich and Charles Steindel
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 730 (68,400)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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core inflation, inflation target, consumer price index, personal consumption, expenditure deflator

2.

A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation

Economic Policy Review, Vol. 13, No. 3, December 2007
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 16 Dec 2007
Robert W. Rich and Charles Steindel
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 465 (120,085)
Citation 21

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retail banking, bank branches, banking

3.

Understanding the Recent Behavior of U.S. Inflation

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 12 May 2005
Robert W. Rich and Donald Rissmiller
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 374 (154,324)

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inflation, Phillips Curve, supply shocks, import prices, out-of-sample forecasts

4.

Improving Survey Measures of Household Inflation Expectations

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 16, No. 7, August/September 2010
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 24 Sep 2010
Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Simon Potter, Robert W. Rich, Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw
University of Southern California, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 247 (237,959)
Citation 8

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inflation expectations, wage expectations

5.

Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 71
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 09 Aug 1999
Stephen G. Cecchetti, Stephen G. Cecchetti and Robert W. Rich
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)Brandeis International Business School and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 222 (263,858)
Citation 2

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disinflation, identification, vector autoregression, structural shocks

6.

The Historical and Recent Behavior of Goods and Services Inflation

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 13 Dec 2004
Richard W. Peach, Robert W. Rich and Alexis Antoniades
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Columbia University
Downloads 210 (277,829)

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good inflation, services inflation, cointegration

7.

The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

Economic Policy Review, Issue 23-2, pp. 1-32, 2017
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 20 Dec 2017
Marlene Amstad, Marlene Amstad, Simon Potter and Robert W. Rich
Harvard Kennedy SchoolThe Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 204 (285,388)
Citation 1

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inflation, dynamic factor models, core inflation, monetary policy, forecasting

8.

Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations

Downloads 189 (305,906)
Citation 25

Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 106
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 01 Feb 2000
Joseph S. Tracy and Robert W. Rich
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 139 (397,519)

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Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations

NBER Working Paper No. w7731
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 12 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2022
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 50 (753,823)

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9.

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

Downloads 188 (307,360)
Citation 6

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 22-21R
Number of pages: 69 Posted: 24 Jun 2022 Last Revised: 28 Mar 2023
Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert W. Rich and Raphael Schoenle
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Brandeis University
Downloads 188 (306,773)

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inflation, wage-price spiral, expectations, randomized controlled trial

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP17356
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 23 Jun 2022
Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert W. Rich and Raphael Schoenle
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Brandeis University
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Expectations, inflation, randomized controlled trial, wage-price spiral

10.

Tracking Productivity in Real Time

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 12, No. 8, November 2006
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 06 Dec 2006
James A. Kahn and Robert W. Rich
Yeshiva University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 168 (339,715)

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productivity, economic growth, factor model, regime switching

11.

How Does Slack Influence Inflation?

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 17, No. 3, July 2011
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 27 Jul 2011
Richard W. Peach, Robert W. Rich and Anna Cororaton
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and United States Energy Information Administration
Downloads 167 (341,412)
Citation 13

Abstract:

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Phillips curve, Economic slack

12.

The Parts are More than the Whole: Separating Goods and Services to Predict Core Inflation

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 19, No. 7, 2013
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 30 Sep 2013
Richard W. Peach, Robert W. Rich and M. Linder
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 145 (383,776)
Citation 3

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core Inflation, core services inflation

13.

The Relationship between Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 253
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 21 Jul 2006
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 143 (387,943)
Citation 26

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Survey of Professional Forecasters, density forecasts, point forecasts, inflation predictions, seemingly related regression

14.

Modeling Uncertainty: Predictive Accuracy as a Proxy for Predictive Confidence

FRB of New York Working Paper No. 161
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 16 Apr 2003
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 138 (399,050)
Citation 14

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uncertainty, disagreement, conditional heteroskedasticity

15.

Is There an Inflation Puzzle?

Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 4, December 1997
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 24 Sep 2007
Cara S. Lown and Robert W. Rich
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 130 (418,082)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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U.S. Inflation

16.

Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Detect Changes in Trend Productivity

Staff Report No. 159
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 31 Mar 2006
James A. Kahn and Robert W. Rich
Yeshiva University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 111 (471,066)
Citation 19

Abstract:

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productivity growth, regime-switching, neoclassical growth model, factor model

17.

Structural Change in U.S. Wage Determination

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 117
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 11 Aug 2006
Robert W. Rich and Donald Rissmiller
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 105 (490,318)

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wage phillips curve, model stability

18.

The Linkage between Regional Economic Indexes and Tax Bases: Evidence from New York

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 28 Sep 2004
Jason Bram, Andrew Haughwout, James Orr, Robert W. Rich and Rae D. Rosen
Independent, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 103 (497,099)
Citation 2

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taxes, coincident indexes, state and local government

19.

The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 588
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 21 Dec 2012
Robert W. Rich, Joseph Song and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 93 (531,921)
Citation 16

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uncertainty, disagreement, inflation expectations, output growth expectations

20.

Leading Economic Indexes for New York State and New Jersey

Economic Policy Review, Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2001
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 10 Nov 2005
James Orr, Robert W. Rich and Rae D. Rosen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 92 (535,623)

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lending economic index, coincident economic index, regional business cycles, New York State economy, New Jersey economy

21.

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 22-35
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 23 Nov 2022
Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert W. Rich and Raphael Schoenle
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Brandeis University
Downloads 87 (554,592)

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Inflation, Expectations, Surveys, Consumers, Heterogeneous Beliefs

22.

Surveys of Professionals

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 22-13
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 10 May 2022
Michael P. Clements, Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
University of Reading - Henley Business School, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 81 (578,891)
Citation 2

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economic forecasting, survey expectations, data collection and modeling, quantitative methods

23.

The Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement and Their Roles in Economic Prediction: A Panel Analysis

FRB of NY Staff Report No. 808
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Feb 2017
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 68 (637,622)
Citation 2

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uncertainty, disagreement, ECB-SPF, density forecasts, point forecasts, forecast accuracy, forecast revisions

24.

Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of U.S. Labor Contracts from 1970 to 1995

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 521
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 08 Oct 2011 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2012
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 68 (637,622)

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labor contract, early renegotiation

25.

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 672
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 06 May 2014
Marlene Amstad, Marlene Amstad, Simon Potter and Robert W. Rich
Harvard Kennedy SchoolThe Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 65 (652,551)
Citation 5

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inflation, dynamic factor models, core inflation, monetary policy, forecasting

26.

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

Downloads 64 (657,737)
Citation 11

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 18-13
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 11 Oct 2018
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 37 (850,585)
Citation 11

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Disagreement, Uncertainty, Point Forecasts, Density Forecasts,

A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 1811
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 13 Aug 2018 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 27 (941,633)

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Disagreement, Uncertainty, Point Forecasts, Density Forecasts, Heterogeneity, ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

27.

Two New Indexes Offer a Broad View of Economic Activity in the New York-New Jersey Region

Current Issues in Economics and Finance Vol. 5, No. 14, October 1999
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 26 Jun 2007
James Orr, Robert W. Rich and Rae D. Rosen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 61 (673,519)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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coincident index, Kalman filter, activity measures, regional cycles

28.

Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 15, No. 5, September 2009
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 30 Oct 2009
Jason Bram, James Orr, Robert W. Rich, Rae D. Rosen and Joseph Song
Independent, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Downloads 57 (695,211)
Citation 1

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activity Indexes, New York City, New York State, New Jersey, coincident indexes

29.

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2023-5
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 16 Jun 2023
Keshav Dogra, Sebastian Heise, Edward S. Knotek, Brent Meyer, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw and Wändi Bruine de Bruin
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Brandeis University, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Southern California
Downloads 52 (724,523)

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prices, business survey, hypothetical questions

30.

All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 21-06
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 25 Feb 2021
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 51 (730,781)

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professional forecasters, survey data, forecast accuracy, point forecasts, density forecasts, persistent heterogeneity

31.

The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG

BIS Working Paper No. 453
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 12 Sep 2014
Marlene Amstad, Marlene Amstad, Simon Potter and Robert W. Rich
Harvard Kennedy SchoolThe Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Downloads 50 (737,058)

Abstract:

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Inflation, Dynamic Factor Models, Core Inflation, Monetary Policy, Forecasting

32.

Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Downloads 40 (805,381)
Citation 1

Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2023-143
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 07 Nov 2023
Alexander Dietrich, Edward S. Knotek, Kristian Myrseth, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber
Danish National Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Brandeis University and University of Chicago - Finance
Downloads 32 (894,307)
Citation 1

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Greater than the Sum of its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w31822
Number of pages: 77 Posted: 07 Nov 2023
Alexander Dietrich, Edward S. Knotek, Kristian Myrseth, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber
Danish National Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Brandeis University and University of Chicago - Finance
Downloads 8 (1,154,372)
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33.

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

Downloads 39 (812,725)
Citation 2

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 23-14, https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202314
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 05 Jun 2023
Keshav Dogra, Sebastian Heise, Edward S. Knotek, Brent Meyer, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw and Wändi Bruine de Bruin
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Brandeis University, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Southern California
Downloads 20 (1,015,467)
Citation 2

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Prices, Business Survey, Hypothetical Questions

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

FRB of New York Staff Report No. 1062
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 12 Jun 2023
Keshav Dogra, Sebastian Heise, Edward S. Knotek, Brent Meyer, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw and Wändi Bruine de Bruin
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Brandeis University, Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and University of Southern California
Downloads 19 (1,026,850)

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prices, business survey, hypothetical questions

34.

Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

Downloads 35 (844,105)

Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 22-22
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 01 Aug 2022
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 18 (1,038,312)

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aggregation effects, composition effects, wage-inflation Phillips curve

Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 2211
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2022
Robert W. Rich and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 17 (1,049,901)

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wage growth, aggregation effects, composition effects, wage-inflation Phillips curve

35.

An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 25 Aug 2024
Robert W. Rich, Michael Clements and Joseph S. Tracy
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, University of Reading and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 6 (1,134,237)

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Variance forecasts, survey expectations, Bayesian learning, monotonicity tests, inflation forecasts, GDP growth forecasts

36.

Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov Switching Approach

JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Vol. 29, No. 2, May 1997
Posted: 03 Feb 1997
Jennie E. Raymond and Robert W. Rich
Auburn University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

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