Jay Ulfelder

Independent

No Address Available

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

16

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5,121

CITATIONS
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Top 27,152

in Total Papers Citations

15

Scholarly Papers (16)

1.

Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder and Benjamin Valentino
Independent and Dartmouth College
Downloads 775 (30,638)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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genocide, mass killing, forecasting

2.

Economic Growth and Political Instability

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 10 Aug 2011
Patrick T. Brandt and Jay Ulfelder
School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences and Independent
Downloads 722 (33,781)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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riots, unrest, instability, coups, democratization, growth

3.

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 190-208, January 2010, GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2010-09
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 20 Apr 2010
George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government, Harvard University - Department of Government, Columbia University - Department of Political Science, Independent, affiliation not provided to SSRN, George Mason University, School of Public Policy, Independent and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 638 (39,869)
Citation 72

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Instability, Revolution, Civil War, Democracy, Regimes

4.

A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Aug 2013
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 586 (44,700)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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genocide, atrocities, forecasting

5.

Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 Oct 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 525 (51,385)

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political instability, forecasting, coups, civil war, social movements, protests

6.

Searching for Sources of Democratic Consolidation

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 328 (90,302)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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democracy, consolidation, development, coups

7.

Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 02 Apr 2014
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 288 (104,067)

Abstract:

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forecasting, prediction, atrocities, mass killing, genocide, human rights

8.

Pathways to Political Liberalization in Dictatorships

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 199 (150,566)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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liberalization, democratization, reform, dictatorship, crisis, transaction costs

9.

Forecasting Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 175 (169,305)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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democracy, democratization, forecasting, coups

10.

Gambling on Reform

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 167 (176,385)

Abstract:

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liberalization, dictatorship, reform, transaction costs, game theory

11.

What We Talk About When We Talk About States

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 164 (179,141)

Abstract:

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state, sovereignty, state-building, nation-building, Weberian

12.

Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 May 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 158 (184,901)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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genocide, mass killing, atrocities, forecasting

13.

A Measurement Error Model of Dichotomous Democracy Status

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 04 Feb 2016
Sean J. Taylor and Jay Ulfelder
Independent and Independent
Downloads 112 (242,061)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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political science, democracy, Bayesian modeling

14.

State Collapse Coding Guidelines

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Jul 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 107 (250,014)

Abstract:

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state collapse, state failure, sovereignty

15.

Promising Initial Results from a New Mass-Atrocities Early Warning System

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 24 Feb 2015
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 101 (260,165)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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prediction, forecasting, crowdsourcing, genocide, atrocities

16.
Downloads 76 (310,612)

Abstract:

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democracy, dictatorship, democratization, regime type, measurement