Jay Ulfelder

Independent

No Address Available

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

16

DOWNLOADS
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CITATIONS
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Top 18,041

in Total Papers Citations

18

Scholarly Papers (16)

1.

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 190-208, January 2010, GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2010-09
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 20 Apr 2010
George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government, Harvard University - Department of Government, Columbia University - Department of Political Science, Independent, affiliation not provided to SSRN, George Mason University, School of Public Policy, Independent and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 530 (35,696)
Citation 14

Abstract:

Forecasting, Instability, Revolution, Civil War, Democracy, Regimes

2.

Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 Oct 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 441 (44,611)

Abstract:

political instability, forecasting, coups, civil war, social movements, protests

3.

Economic Growth and Political Instability

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 10 Aug 2011
Patrick T. Brandt and Jay Ulfelder
School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences and Independent
Downloads 375 (44,949)

Abstract:

riots, unrest, instability, coups, democratization, growth

4.

Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder and Benjamin Valentino
Independent and Dartmouth College
Downloads 361 (40,440)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, mass killing, forecasting

5.

A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Aug 2013
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 282 (60,056)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, atrocities, forecasting

6.

Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 02 Apr 2014
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 181 (97,959)

Abstract:

forecasting, prediction, atrocities, mass killing, genocide, human rights

7.

Forecasting Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 141 (152,590)

Abstract:

democracy, democratization, forecasting, coups

8.

Pathways to Political Liberalization in Dictatorships

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 138 (150,861)
Citation 1

Abstract:

liberalization, democratization, reform, dictatorship, crisis, transaction costs

9.

What We Talk About When We Talk About States

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 127 (152,590)

Abstract:

state, sovereignty, state-building, nation-building, Weberian

10.

Searching for Sources of Democratic Consolidation

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 119 (172,237)

Abstract:

democracy, consolidation, development, coups

11.

Gambling on Reform

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 118 (168,257)

Abstract:

liberalization, dictatorship, reform, transaction costs, game theory

12.

Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 May 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 71 (226,999)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, mass killing, atrocities, forecasting

13.
Downloads 54 (274,686)

Abstract:

democracy, dictatorship, democratization, regime type, measurement

14.

State Collapse Coding Guidelines

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Jul 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 49 (249,816)

Abstract:

state collapse, state failure, sovereignty

15.

Promising Initial Results from a New Mass-Atrocities Early Warning System

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 24 Feb 2015
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 41 (246,088)

Abstract:

prediction, forecasting, crowdsourcing, genocide, atrocities

16.

A Measurement Error Model of Dichotomous Democracy Status

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 04 Feb 2016
Sean J. Taylor and Jay Ulfelder
Independent and Independent
Downloads 0 (244,172)

Abstract:

political science, democracy, Bayesian modeling