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Jay Ulfelder

Independent

No Address Available

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

16

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4,242

CITATIONS
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Top 18,023

in Total Papers Citations

18

Scholarly Papers (16)

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1.

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 190-208, January 2010, GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2010-09
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 Last Revised: 20 Apr 2010
Jack A. Goldstone, Robert Bates, David Epstein, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustik, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder and Mark Woodward
George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government, Harvard University - Department of Government, Columbia University - Department of Political Science, Independent, affiliation not provided to SSRN, George Mason University, School of Public Policy, Independent and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 530 (36,399)
Citation 14

Abstract:

Forecasting, Instability, Revolution, Civil War, Democracy, Regimes

2.

Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 Oct 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 441 (45,534)

Abstract:

political instability, forecasting, coups, civil war, social movements, protests

3.

Economic Growth and Political Instability

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 10 Aug 2011
Patrick T. Brandt and Jay Ulfelder
School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences and Independent
Downloads 375 (32,251)

Abstract:

riots, unrest, instability, coups, democratization, growth

4.

Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder and Benjamin Valentino
Independent and Dartmouth College
Downloads 361 (38,688)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, mass killing, forecasting

5.

A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing

APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Aug 2013
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 282 (59,845)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, atrocities, forecasting

6.

Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 02 Apr 2014
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 181 (96,326)

Abstract:

forecasting, prediction, atrocities, mass killing, genocide, human rights

7.

Forecasting Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 02 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 141 (153,216)

Abstract:

democracy, democratization, forecasting, coups

8.

Pathways to Political Liberalization in Dictatorships

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 138 (143,034)
Citation 1

Abstract:

liberalization, democratization, reform, dictatorship, crisis, transaction costs

9.

What We Talk About When We Talk About States

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jun 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 127 (156,596)

Abstract:

state, sovereignty, state-building, nation-building, Weberian

10.

Searching for Sources of Democratic Consolidation

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 07 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 119 (81,480)

Abstract:

democracy, consolidation, development, coups

11.

Gambling on Reform

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 08 Jan 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 118 (167,743)

Abstract:

liberalization, dictatorship, reform, transaction costs, game theory

12.

Forecasting Onsets of Mass Killing

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 12 May 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 71 (229,465)
Citation 1

Abstract:

genocide, mass killing, atrocities, forecasting

13.

Do "Observables" Really Produce Better Data? Problems with the Pacl Data Set for the Analysis of Regime Survival

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Nov 2010
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 54 (283,642)

Abstract:

democracy, dictatorship, democratization, regime type, measurement

14.

State Collapse Coding Guidelines

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Jul 2012
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 49 (254,090)

Abstract:

state collapse, state failure, sovereignty

15.

Promising Initial Results from a New Mass-Atrocities Early Warning System

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 24 Feb 2015
Jay Ulfelder
Independent
Downloads 41 (244,737)

Abstract:

prediction, forecasting, crowdsourcing, genocide, atrocities

16.

A Measurement Error Model of Dichotomous Democracy Status

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 04 Feb 2016
Sean J. Taylor and Jay Ulfelder
Independent and Independent
Downloads 0 (241,159)

Abstract:

political science, democracy, Bayesian modeling

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