Alfred G. Cuzan

University of West Florida

11000 University Parkway

Pensacola, FL 32514-5750

United States

  • University of West Florida

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

19

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Scholarly Papers (19)

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1.

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54, Revised and extended version of a paper presented at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2011 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuzan
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 490 (59,292)

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election forecasting, combining, prediction markets, polls, econometric models, expert judgment

2.

Fidel Castro: A Machiavellian Prince?

Number of pages: 73 Posted: 28 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 25 Aug 2015
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 252 (126,072)
Citation 1

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Fidel Castro, Cuba, Machiavelli, tyranny

3.

Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model

Downloads 127 (231,846)

Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election With the Fiscal Model

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 14 Mar 2012
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 75 (332,092)

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fiscal policy, presidential election

Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 03 Aug 2012
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 52 (402,240)

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fiscal model, presidential election, Obama

4.

Some Principles of Politics

Libertarian Papers, VOL. 9, NO. 2 (2017)
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 14 Jul 2017
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 124 (236,098)

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principles of politics, laws of politics, centralization, rulers, ruled, democracies, dictatorsip

5.

Totalitarianism in the Tropics: Cuba's 'Padilla Case' Revisited

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 26 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 25 Aug 2015
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 121 (240,343)
Citation 1

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totalitarianism, Castro's Cuba, Padilla Case, Hitler's Germany, Stalin's Russia, literature

6.

Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections

FORESIGHT: International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 3, pp. 10-13, February 2006
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 30 Jun 2014
J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cuzan
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of West Florida
Downloads 96 (282,593)

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7.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuzan
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 83 (309,689)

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combining forecasts, forecast accuracy, Iowa Electronic Markets, FiveThirtyEight, econometric models, election forecasting

8.

Five Empirical Laws of Politics

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 21 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jun 2015
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 81 (314,209)

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laws of politics, democracies, dictatorships, elections, representation, the state, government, plurality, rule

9.

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 14 Dec 2016
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuzan
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 62 (363,992)

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PollyVote, 2016 Presidential Election, Forecast

10.

Revisiting 'Do We Ever Really Get Out of Anarchy?'

Journal of Libertarian Studies Volume 22 (2010): 3–2
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 12 Jan 2018
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 45 (420,634)

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anarchy, democracy, dictatorship, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau

11.

Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation

APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 08 Sep 2013
Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuzan
University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 45 (420,634)

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presidential elections forecasting expert judgment

12.

A Constitutional Framework for a Free Cuba

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 03 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 17 Jul 2014
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 45 (420,634)

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Cuba, constitution, presidential, parliamentary, consensual

13.

Will the Republicans Retake the House of Representatives in 2010?

APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 19 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 06 Sep 2010
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 45 (420,634)

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House of Representatives, Midterm Elections, Forecasting

14.

Fiscal Model Forecast for the 2016 Presidential Election

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 14 Aug 2016
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 41 (436,087)

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fiscal model, 2016 forecast, presidential election

15.

2012 Fiscal Model Failure: A Problem of Measurement?

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Dec 2012
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 31 (479,894)

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Fiscal Model, forecasting, 2012 presidential election

16.

Castro’s Cuba: An Economic, Social, and Political Evaluation

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 08 Feb 2019
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 28 (495,102)

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Castro, Dictatorships, Democracies, Economic Growth, Infant Mortality, Democide

17.

Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 25 Sep 2010
Alfred G. Cuzan
University of West Florida
Downloads 22 (529,182)

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Midterm Elections Forecast

18.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzan and Randall J. Jones
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of West Florida and University of Central Oklahoma
Downloads 19 (547,379)

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19.

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzan, Randall J. Jones and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of West Florida, University of Central Oklahoma and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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