James Cook University - College of Science and Engineering, University of Exeter, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Exeter, Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems National Research Council Florence Branch, Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems National Research Council Florence Branch, Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems National Research Council Florence Branch, affiliation not provided to SSRN, James Cook University, affiliation not provided to SSRN and University of Exeter