F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida

Lecturer

Orlando, FL 32816

United States

http://www.priorprobability.com

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

51

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29,031

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 23,067

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10

CROSSREF CITATIONS

26

Scholarly Papers (51)

1.

Gödel’s Loophole

Capital University Law Review, vol. 41 (2013), pp. 637-673
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 5,681 (1,336)
Citation 1

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Gödel, Gödelian design defects, constitutional statements, self-amendment, entrenchment, anti-entrenchment clauses

2.

Buy or Bite?

Economics of the Undead, edited by Glen Whitman & James Dow (2014), pp. 123-129
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 29 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,135 (2,348)

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Vampires, Blood, Black Markets, Legal Failure, Violence

3.

Of Coase and Copyrights: The Law and Economics of Literary Fan Art

NYU Journal of Intellectual Property & Entertainment Law, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 3,843 (2,652)

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copyright, fan art, fair use, Ronald Coase, reciprocal harms

4.

Life, Love, and Law: Confessions of a Cuban-American Law Professor

Revista del Colegio de Abogados y Abogadas de P.R., Forthcoming
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 3,452 (3,168)

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Bayesian Probability, Carlitos del Valle, Coase Theorem, Failure, Game Theory, Kurt Gödel, Law, Legal Theory, Orlando I. Martinez-Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Scholarship, Sydjia Robinson, Teaching, Thomas Schelling, University of Central Florida

5.

The Turing Test and the Legal Process

Information & Communications Technology Law, vol. 21, no. 2 (June 2012), pp. 113-126
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 01 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 2,373 (5,965)

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Turing Test, Turing litigation game, probabilistic verdicts

6.

Chance and Litigation

Boston University Public Interest Law Journal, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 2011), pp. 45-59
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 625 (45,170)
Citation 2

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chance, randomness, coin toss, litigation game, random litigation hypothesis, relative frequency

7.

A Nozickian or Natural Rights Approach to the Coronavirus Pandemic

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 03 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 15 May 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 584 (49,315)

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Coronavirus Pandemic, Property Rights, Robert Nozick, Takings Clause

8.

A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game

European Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 4, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2011), pp. 220-240
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 22 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 564 (51,628)
Citation 4

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Bayes’ theorem, litigation game, random and non-random adjudication, risk-averse and risk-loving moving parties

9.

The Poker-Litigation Game

Resolved: Journal for Alternative Dispute Resolution, vol. 5, no. 1 (2015), pp. 144-164.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 426 (72,994)
Citation 2

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poker, poker-litigation game, best response, Nash equilibrium, incomplete information, low and high bets, mixed strategy, probabilistic strategy, strategic game, symmetry

10.

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 30 May 2013 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 422 (73,836)
Citation 4

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Bayes’ Rule, Blue Bus Case, Probabilistic Proof

11.

Modelling the Coase Theorem

European Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 5, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2012/13), pp.139-157
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 381 (83,196)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Coasian games, farmer-rancher model, stray cattle, railway sparks, probabilistic payoffs, transaction costs

12.

Does the Prisoner's Dilemma Refute the Coase Theorem?

John Marshall Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 354 (90,580)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Bargaining, Threats and Promises, Uncertainty, Exponential Discounting, Elasticity

13.

Trolley Problems

Drake Law Review Discourse, vol. 63 (2014), pp. 101-119
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 347 (92,617)

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Auction, Coase Theorem, Free Riding, Thought Experiment, Second-Order Thought Experiment, Trolley Problem, Veil of Ignorance

14.

Clones and the Coase Theorem

Journal of Law & Social Deviance, Vol. 2, pp. 43-91, 2011
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 336 (96,025)
Citation 1

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clones, Coase theorem, time scarcity, Blade Runner

15.

Why Don't Juries Try 'Range Voting'?

Criminal Law Bulletin, vol. 51, no. 3, 2015
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 21 May 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 308 (105,697)
Citation 2

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jury accuracy, juries, range voting, range verdicts, probabilistic verdicts, holdouts, strategic voting, ignorance, incomplete information, diversity prediction theorem

16.

The Most Senile Justice?

Supreme Court Micro-Symposium, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 02 Aug 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 299 (109,222)

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judicial decreptitude, U.S. Supreme Court

17.

Domestic Violence, Strategic Behavior, and Ideological Rent-Seeking

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 296 (110,381)
Citation 2

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domestic violence, rent-seeking, strategic behavior

18.

A Tale of Two Joint Ventures: Jiangsu, China and Havana, Cuba: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Public-Private Contracts in the Water Sector

Journal of Applied Economy, Symposium Issue on 'Critical Regulation,' vol. 3 (2009), pp. 39-56
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 283 (115,721)
Citation 1

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best response, internal-externality, public-private partnership

19.

Coase and the Constitution: A New Approach to Federalism

Richmond Journal of Law and Public Interest, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 254 (129,649)
Citation 2

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Auctions, Federalism, Property Rights, Ronald Coase, Secondary Markets

20.

Breaking Bad Promises

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 250 (131,732)

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paradox, promises, promissory obligation

21.

The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology

45 Fla. St. U. L. Rev. 889-1022 (2018)., California Western School of Law Research Paper No. 19-2, Southwestern Law School Research Paper No. 2019/04, Marquette Law School Legal Studies Paper No. 19-08
Number of pages: 134 Posted: 13 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 09 Aug 2019
Michigan State University College of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law, Arizona State University (ASU) - Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Ohio State University - Moritz College of Law, Marquette University - Law School, University of Central Florida, University of Florida Levin College of Law, Southwestern Law School, University of the Pacific - McGeorge School of Law, Barry University School of Law, Touro College - Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of Florida Levin College of Law, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of California, Berkeley - School of Law, University of Arizona, James E. Rogers College of Law, California Western School of Law, William & Mary Law School, South Texas College of Law Houston and Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School
Downloads 235 (140,034)

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Contracts, Contract Law

22.

Legal Liability for Research Fraud

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2017), pp. 755-761
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 229 (143,603)
Citation 3

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Research Fraud, Fabrication of Data, Legal Liability

23.

Finding Santiago

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 205 (159,526)
Citation 1

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Bayes’ Rule, Hemingway, Santiago, Subjective Probability, The Old Man and the Sea

24.

Probabilistic Interpretation

University of LaVerne Law Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (2016), pp. 101-121
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 204 (160,255)
Citation 1

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Legal Interpretation, Best-Choice Secretary Problem

25.

Probabilistic Interpretation, Part II: The Case of the Speluncean Explorers

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 06 Jan 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 201 (162,488)

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Bayesian Probability, Degrees of Belief, Cardinal Voting, Range Voting, Lon Fuller

26.

Bayesian Manipulation of Litigation Outcomes

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 28 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 199 (164,032)
Citation 1

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Bayes' rule, common prior assumption, sender, signals, receiver, truth

27.

The Parable of the Prisoners

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 196 (166,356)
Citation 1

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Prisoner’s Dilemma, Altruist’s Dilemma, game theory, paradigm, Melvin Dresher, Merrill Flood, John Nash, A.W. Tucker

28.

Gödel's Interbellum

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 172 (186,924)

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Anti-Constitutional Moments, Interbellum Europe, Kurt Gödel, Gödel’s Loophole, Constitutional Dictatorship

29.

Evade or Comply?

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 29 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 162 (196,779)

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compliance level, enforcement level, imitation, Markov process, regulation game, systemic risk

30.

Puerto Rico as a Critical Locality: Is a Post-Colonial Puerto Rico Possible? A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Impasse over Puerto Rico's Status

St Thomas Law Review, vol. 20, no. 3 (2008), pp. 561-571
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 19 May 2008 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 147 (213,449)

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Truel, Endowment Effect, Path Dependence

31.

The Paradox of Adjudication

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Jun 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 144 (217,018)

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adjudication, costly decision-making, infinite regress, research, deliberation, time constraints, Hand formula

32.

The Futility of the Libertarian Fetish for Freedom: Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom Revisited

Journal of Law and Social Deviance, vol. 4 (2012), pp. 1-39
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 136 (227,106)

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coercion, Milton Friedman, capitalism and freedom

33.

Kant on Evidence: A Hypothetical Reply to Kerr

Green Bag 2d. (Summer 2019)
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 20 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 18 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 135 (228,404)
Citation 1

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Kant, evidence, thought experiments

34.

The Evolutionary Path of the Law

Indonesian Journal of International Law, vol. 1, no. 3 (July 2014), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 127 (239,547)
Citation 1

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Altruism, Cooperation, Prisoner's Dilemma, Law, Science

35.

El Caso de Puerto Rico: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Puerto Rican Status Debate

American University Journal of Gender, Social Policy & the Law, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2010
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 124 (243,838)
Citation 2

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costly war of attrition, evolutionarily stable strategies, hawk-dove game

36.

Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 123 (245,348)

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Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

37.

A Beautiful Life: Some Lessons for Legal Scholars

Mississippi College School of Law Research Paper
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 22 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 121 (248,402)

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Albert O. Hirschman, emotions, enforcement, evasion

38.

So Long Suckers: Bargaining and Betrayal in Breaking Bad

Journal of Strategic Contracting and Negotiation, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 02 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 107 (271,323)

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Bargaining game, Breaking Bad (TV show), negotiation, So Long Sucker (game)

39.

Deconstructing Darwin

Griffith Law Review (Australia), vol. 14, no. 2 (2005), pp. 247-267
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 106 (273,073)

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Darwin, Tierra del Fuego

40.

The Case for Bayesian Judges: Putting Posner and Vermeule into Practice

Journal of Legal Metrics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2019), pp. 13-20
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 09 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 103 (278,556)

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Bayesian voting, degrees of belief, confidence levels, judicial voting, appellate judges

41.

Law Is a Battlefield: The Colonel Blotto Litigation Game

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 13 Dec 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 88 (308,290)

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Colonel Blotto, all-pay auction, strategy

42.

A Stylebook for Law: A Rational System of Legal Citation

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 87 (310,490)

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Parenthetical Citation, Bibliography

43.

Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold

Chapman Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 05 Feb 2020 Last Revised: 02 Mar 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 84 (317,303)

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Guaranteed income, negative income tax, universal basic income, Milton Friedman, Rose Friedman, Congress

44.

Condorcet's Paradox and Puerto Rico Status

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 10 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 17 Apr 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 76 (336,635)

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Condorcet cycle, Bayesian voting, Puerto Rico

45.

Excerpts from 'The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology' (Val Ricks, Editor) - Part 1: A Bayesian Defense of the Rule in Hadley v. Baxendale - Part 2: Sherwood v. Walker: Replevin for Rose Redux

Florida State University Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 21 May 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 71 (349,720)

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Hadley v. Baxendale, Sherwood v. Walker, mistake, probability, remedies

46.

Bayesian Litigation (An Application of Bayes’ Theorem to Law)

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 11 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 69 (355,223)

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Bayesian Analysis, Law, Litigation

47.

The Problem with Precedent

Vienna Journal on International Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, no. 4 (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 24 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 59 (384,862)

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precedent, stare decisis, circular reasoning, Bayesian judging

48.

Exit, Voice, and Boilerplate

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 25 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 33 (484,867)

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contracts, markets, morality, boilerplate

49.

Domestic Constitutional Violence

UA Little Rock Law Review, Vol. 41 (2019), pp. 211-232.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 28 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 32 (489,724)

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Cooper v. Aaron, Little Rock Crisis, Necessity

50.

Bitcoin, the Commerce Clause, and Bayesian Stare Decisis

Chapman Law Review, Vol. 22, No. 1 (2019), pp. 143-160
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 24 (533,347)
Citation 1

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Bayesian Voting, Bitcoin, South Dakota v. Wayfair, Stare Decisis

51.

(Book Review) Frank Ramsey’s Contributions to Probability Theory

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 24 Apr 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 19 (564,352)

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Degrees of Belief, Subjective Probability, Cheryl Misak, Frank Ramsey

Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 1,110
1.

Hacking Harvard: Law, Ethics, and the Dawn of the Facebook Era

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 1,057

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Business law, ethics, legal environment

2.

Research Fraud as Tort

Science, Vol. 349, No. 6255 (25 Sept. 2015), pp. 1459-1460
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 53

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intentional torts, fraudulent misrepresentation, research fraud