F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida

Lecturer

Orlando, FL 32816

United States

http://www.priorprobability.com

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

  • University of Central Florida

  • Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

48

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“  I am researching the relevance of natural law theory to contemporary legal problems, and I'm also developing a new 'Reacting to the Past' game called 'Hacking Harvard.' Check out my blog www.priorprobability.com.  ”

  • University of Central Florida

  • Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

Scholarly Papers (48)

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1.

Gödel’s Loophole

Capital University Law Review, vol. 41 (2013), pp. 637-673
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 5,136 (1,390)

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Gödel, Gödelian design defects, constitutional statements, self-amendment, entrenchment, anti-entrenchment clauses

2.

Buy or Bite?

Economics of the Undead, edited by Glen Whitman & James Dow (2014), pp. 123-129
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 29 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 3,926 (2,237)

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Vampires, Blood, Black Markets, Legal Failure, Violence

3.

Of Coase and Copyrights: The Law and Economics of Literary Fan Art

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 29 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 3,548 (2,660)

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copyright, fan art, fair use, Ronald Coase, reciprocal harms

4.

My Intellectual Journey

Revista del Colegio de Abogados y Abogadas de P.R. (Conmemorativa del Centenario), Vol. 75, Nos. 1-2 (2014), pp. 184-210
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 27 Nov 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 2,972 (3,604)

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Ronald Coase, Richard Dawkins, Thomas Schelling

5.

The Turing Test and the Legal Process

Information & Communications Technology Law, vol. 21, no. 2 (June 2012), pp. 113-126
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 01 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 2,352 (5,359)

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Turing Test, Turing litigation game, probabilistic verdicts

6.

Chance and Litigation

Boston University Public Interest Law Journal, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 2011), pp. 45-59
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 614 (41,725)

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chance, randomness, coin toss, litigation game, random litigation hypothesis, relative frequency

7.

A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game

European Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 4, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2011), pp. 220-240
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 22 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 538 (49,540)

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Bayes’ theorem, litigation game, random and non-random adjudication, risk-averse and risk-loving moving parties

8.

The Poker-Litigation Game

Resolved: Journal for Alternative Dispute Resolution, vol. 5, no. 1 (2015), pp. 144-164.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 412 (68,973)

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poker, poker-litigation game, best response, Nash equilibrium, incomplete information, low and high bets, mixed strategy, probabilistic strategy, strategic game, symmetry

9.

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 30 May 2013 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 404 (70,671)

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Bayes’ Rule, Blue Bus Case, Probabilistic Proof

10.

Modelling the Coase Theorem

European Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 5, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2012/13), pp.139-157
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 372 (77,761)

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Coase Theorem, Coasian games, farmer-rancher model, stray cattle, railway sparks, probabilistic payoffs, transaction costs

11.

Does the Prisoner's Dilemma Refute the Coase Theorem?

John Marshall Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 330 (89,263)

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Coase Theorem, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Bargaining, Threats and Promises, Uncertainty, Exponential Discounting, Elasticity

12.

Clones and the Coase Theorem

Journal of Law & Social Deviance, Vol. 2, pp. 43-91, 2011
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 329 (89,588)

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clones, Coase theorem, time scarcity, Blade Runner

13.

Why Don't Juries Try 'Range Voting'?

Criminal Law Bulletin, vol. 51, no. 3, 2015
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 21 May 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 298 (99,763)

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jury accuracy, juries, range voting, range verdicts, probabilistic verdicts, holdouts, strategic voting, ignorance, incomplete information, diversity prediction theorem

14.

Domestic Violence, Strategic Behavior, and Ideological Rent-Seeking

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 284 (105,109)

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domestic violence, rent-seeking, strategic behavior

15.

A Tale of Two Joint Ventures: Jiangsu, China and Havana, Cuba: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Public-Private Contracts in the Water Sector

Journal of Applied Economy, Symposium Issue on 'Critical Regulation,' vol. 3 (2009), pp. 39-56
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 266 (112,583)

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best response, internal-externality, public-private partnership

16.

The Most Senile Justice?

Supreme Court Micro-Symposium, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 02 Aug 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 264 (113,472)

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judicial decreptitude, U.S. Supreme Court

17.

Trolley Problems

Drake Law Review Discourse, vol. 63 (2014), pp. 101-119
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 259 (115,820)

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Auction, Coase Theorem, Free Riding, Thought Experiment, Second-Order Thought Experiment, Trolley Problem, Veil of Ignorance

18.

Coase and the Constitution: A New Approach to Federalism

Richmond Journal of Law and Public Interest, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 250 (120,133)

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Auctions, Federalism, Property Rights, Ronald Coase, Secondary Markets

19.

Legal Liability for Research Fraud

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2017), pp. 755-761
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 212 (141,322)

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Research Fraud, Fabrication of Data, Legal Liability

20.

Immoral Promises

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 14 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 210 (142,609)

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paradox, promises, promissory obligation

21.

Probabilistic Interpretation

University of LaVerne Law Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (2016), pp. 101-121
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 199 (149,854)

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Legal Interpretation, Best-Choice Secretary Problem

22.

Bayesian Manipulation of Litigation Outcomes

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 28 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 193 (154,313)

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Bayes' rule, common prior assumption, sender, signals, receiver, truth

23.

Finding Santiago

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 186 (159,499)

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Bayes’ Rule, Hemingway, Santiago, Subjective Probability, The Old Man and the Sea

24.

The Parable of the Prisoners

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 179 (165,121)

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Prisoner’s Dilemma, Altruist’s Dilemma, game theory, paradigm, Melvin Dresher, Merrill Flood, John Nash, A.W. Tucker

25.

The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology

45 Fla. St. U. L. Rev. 889-1022 (2018)., California Western School of Law Research Paper No. 19-2
Number of pages: 134 Posted: 13 Feb 2019
Daniel D. Barnhizer, Scott J. Burnham, Charles R. Calleros, Larry T. Garvin, Nadelle Grossman, F. E. Guerra-Pujol, Jeffrey Lynch Harrison, Hila Keren, Michael P. Malloy, Daniel O'Gorman, Deborah Waire Post, Val Ricks, Rachel S. Arnow-Richman, Richard R. Carlson, Mark P. Gergen, Kenney F. Hegland, Nancy S. Kim, Nathan B. Oman, Jean Powers and Cheryl B. Preston
Michigan State University College of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law, Arizona State University (ASU) - Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Ohio State University - Moritz College of Law, Marquette University - Law School, University of Central Florida, University of Florida - Levin College of Law, Southwestern Law School, University of the Pacific - McGeorge School of Law, Barry University School of Law, Touro College - Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of Denver Sturm College of Law, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of California, Berkeley - School of Law, University of Arizona, James E. Rogers College of Law, California Western School of Law, William & Mary Law School, South Texas College of Law Houston and Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School
Downloads 171 (171,954)

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Contracts, Contract Law

26.

Gödel's Interbellum

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 167 (175,559)

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Anti-Constitutional Moments, Interbellum Europe, Kurt Gödel, Gödel’s Loophole, Constitutional Dictatorship

27.

Evade or Comply?

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 29 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 160 (182,042)

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compliance level, enforcement level, imitation, Markov process, regulation game, systemic risk

28.

Puerto Rico as a Critical Locality: Is a Post-Colonial Puerto Rico Possible? A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Impasse over Puerto Rico's Status

St Thomas Law Review, vol. 20, no. 3 (2008), pp. 561-571
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 19 May 2008 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 144 (198,662)

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Truel, Endowment Effect, Path Dependence

29.

The Paradox of Adjudication

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Jun 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 143 (199,822)

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adjudication, costly decision-making, infinite regress, research, deliberation, time constraints, Hand formula

30.

Probabilistic Interpretation, Part II: The Case of the Speluncean Explorers

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 06 Jan 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 132 (213,158)

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Bayesian Probability, Degrees of Belief, Cardinal Voting, Range Voting, Lon Fuller

31.

The Futility of the Libertarian Fetish for Freedom: Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom Revisited

Journal of Law and Social Deviance, vol. 4 (2012), pp. 1-39
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 132 (213,158)

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coercion, Milton Friedman, capitalism and freedom

32.

Kant on Evidence: A Hypothetical Reply to Roberts and Kerr

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 20 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 07 Jul 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 124 (223,609)

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Kant, evidence, thought experiments

33.

The Evolutionary Path of the Law

Indonesian Journal of International Law, vol. 1, no. 3 (July 2014), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 124 (223,609)

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Altruism, Cooperation, Prisoner's Dilemma, Law, Science

34.

El Caso de Puerto Rico: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Puerto Rican Status Debate

American University Journal of Gender, Social Policy & the Law, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2010
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 122 (226,299)

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costly war of attrition, evolutionarily stable strategies, hawk-dove game

35.

A Beautiful Life: Some Lessons for Legal Scholars

Mississippi College School of Law Research Paper
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 22 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 119 (230,566)

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Albert O. Hirschman, emotions, enforcement, evasion

36.

Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 111 (242,509)

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Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

37.

Deconstructing Darwin

Griffith Law Review (Australia), vol. 14, no. 2 (2005), pp. 247-267
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 98 (264,198)

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Darwin, Tierra del Fuego

38.

So Long Suckers: Bargaining and Betrayal in Breaking Bad

Journal of Strategic Contracting and Negotiation, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 90 (279,063)

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Bargaining game, Breaking Bad (TV show), negotiation, So Long Sucker (game)

39.

Law Is a Battlefield: The Colonel Blotto Litigation Game

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 13 Dec 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 84 (291,335)

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Colonel Blotto, all-pay auction, strategy

40.

A Stylebook for Law: A Rational System of Legal Citation

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 18 Aug 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 82 (295,566)

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Parenthetical Citation, Bibliography

41.

The Case for Bayesian Voting: A Response to Posner & Vermeule

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 09 Jan 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 78 (304,425)

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Bayesian voting, degrees of belief, confidence levels, judicial voting, appellate judges

42.

Excerpts from 'The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology' (Val Ricks, Editor) - Part 1: A Bayesian Defense of the Rule in Hadley v. Baxendale - Part 2: Sherwood v. Walker: Replevin for Rose Redux

Florida State University Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 21 May 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 70 (323,703)

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Hadley v. Baxendale, Sherwood v. Walker, mistake, probability, remedies

43.

Condorcet's Paradox and Puerto Rico Status

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 10 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 17 Apr 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 70 (323,703)

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Condorcet cycle, Bayesian voting, Puerto Rico

44.

The Problem with Precedent

Vienna Journal on International Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, no. 4 (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 24 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 44 (402,290)

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precedent, stare decisis, circular reasoning, Bayesian judging

45.

Bayesian Litigation (An Application of Bayes’ Theorem to Law)

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 11 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 30 (459,081)

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Bayesian Analysis, Law, Litigation

46.

Exit, Voice, and Boilerplate

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 25 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 28 (468,757)

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contracts, markets, morality, boilerplate

47.

Domestic Constitutional Violence

UA Little Rock Law Review, Vol. 41 (2019), pp. 211-232.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 28 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 20 (512,365)

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Cooper v. Aaron, Little Rock Crisis, Necessity

48.

Bitcoin, the Commerce Clause, and Bayesian Stare Decisis

Chapman Law Review, Vol. 22, No. 1 (2019), pp. 143-160
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 11 (565,015)

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Bayesian Voting, Bitcoin, South Dakota v. Wayfair, Stare Decisis

Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 1,109    Citations: 0
Actions:
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1.

Hacking Harvard: Law, Ethics, and the Dawn of the Facebook Era

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 1,057

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Business law, ethics, legal environment

2.

Research Fraud as Tort

Science, Vol. 349, No. 6255 (25 Sept. 2015), pp. 1459-1460
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 52

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intentional torts, fraudulent misrepresentation, research fraud