affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Sapienza University of Rome, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, University of Trento, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Center for Health Emergencies, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Sapienza University of Rome and Sapienza University of Rome