Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW

Washington, DC 20551

United States

http://sites.google.com/site/mrjahan/

  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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149

Scholarly Papers (31)

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1.

What is Certain About Uncertainty?

Downloads 1,494 (27,356)
Citation 47

What is Certain About Uncertainty?

Journal of Economic Literature, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 02 Aug 2021
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, John H. Rogers, Bo Sun, Deepa Datta, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Olesya V. Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez and Ilknur Zer
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Fudan University - Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF), University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Citation 17

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global risk, uncertainty, volatility, crises, economic policy, monetary policy, downside risk, transmission.

What is Certain About Uncertainty?

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1294
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 07 Aug 2020 Last Revised: 08 Mar 2022
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Cisil Sarisoy, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, John H. Rogers, Deepa Datta, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Olesya V. Grishchenko, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez and Ilknur Zer
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Fudan University - Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 651 (85,742)
Citation 30

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global risks, Uncertainty, Volatility, Crises, Economic policy, Monetary policy, Geopolitical risk, Trade policy, Downside risk

2.

Downside Variance Risk Premium

Downloads 1,210 (37,386)
Citation 25

Downside Variance Risk Premium

Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Econometrics.
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 07 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 23 May 2017
Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Cedric Okou
Bank of Canada, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM)
Downloads 911 (55,013)
Citation 3

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Risk-neutral volatility, Realized volatility, Downside and upside variance risk premium, Skewness risk premium

Downside Variance Risk Premium

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-020, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.020
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 26 Apr 2015
Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Cedric Okou
Bank of Canada, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM)
Downloads 299 (216,250)
Citation 22

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Downside variance risk premium,Realized volatility,Risk-neutral volatility,Skewness risk premium,upside variance risk premium

3.

SONOMA: A Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance

Downloads 662 (85,076)
Citation 1

SONOMA: A Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 29 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 06 Jun 2023
Mariano (Max) Massimiliano Croce, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Samuel Rosen
Finance Department, Bocconi University, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Temple University, Fox School of Business
Downloads 591 (97,281)
Citation 1

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External Positions, Credit and Equity Shocks, Asset Pricing

SONOMA: A Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1349
Number of pages: 78 Posted: 20 Jul 2022
Mariano (Max) Massimiliano Croce, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Samuel Rosen
Finance Department, Bocconi University, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Temple University, Fox School of Business
Downloads 71 (706,795)

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External Positions, Credit and Equity Shocks, Asset Pricing

4.

Why Has the Stock Market Risen so Much Since the Us Presidential Election?

FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1235
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 04 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
Olivier Blanchard, Christopher G Collins, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Thomas Pellet and Beth Anne Wilson
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 465 (132,465)

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Dividends, Earnings, Equity returns, Equity premium, Gordon formula, Tax reform, U.S. presidential election

5.

Modeling Market Downside Volatility

Review of Finance (2013), 17(1), 443-481, doi: 10.1093/rof/rfr024
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 09 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 07 Jan 2013
Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Roméo Tédongap
Bank of Canada, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and ESSEC Business School
Downloads 449 (137,889)
Citation 21

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Binormal distribution, Downside risk, Intertemporal CAPM, GARCH, Relative downside volatility, Risk-return trade-off, Upside uncertainty.

6.

Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS

Downloads 441 (140,816)

Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS

Management Science
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 31 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 18 Jun 2021
Sirio Aramonte, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Samuel Rosen and John W. Schindler
Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Temple University, Fox School of Business and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 371 (169,751)

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Risk Neutral Distributions, Investor Expectations, CDS Spreads

Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions: The Role of CDS Spreads

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1212
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 07 Sep 2017
Sirio Aramonte, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, John W. Schindler and Samuel Rosen
Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Temple University, Fox School of Business
Downloads 70 (712,384)

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7.

The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011–2016

Downloads 379 (168,771)
Citation 2

The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011–2016

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 27 Jan 2020
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
City University of NY, Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 320 (201,526)

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Financial Sanctions; Capital Structure; Event Study; Political Connections; Iran; National Security

The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011-2016

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1281
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 15 Jun 2020
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
City University of NY, Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 59 (780,701)
Citation 2

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8.

Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1216
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 26 Nov 2017
Deepa Datta, Juan M. Londono, Bo Sun, Daniel O. Beltran, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Matteo Iacoviello, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Canlin Li, Marius Rodriguez and John H. Rogers
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Fudan University - Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF)
Downloads 371 (171,343)
Citation 4

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9.

The Cost of a Revolution

Iran Nameh: A Quarterly Journal of Iranian Studies, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 12 Sep 2012 Last Revised: 16 Nov 2015
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 322 (199,779)

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Counterfactual analysis, Markov chain simulation, real per capita GDP, Iran, MENA region

10.

Ambiguity Aversion and Asset Prices in Production Economies

The Review of Financial Studies, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 29 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 13 May 2014
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Hening Liu
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and The University of Manchester - Alliance Manchester Business School
Downloads 319 (201,809)
Citation 16

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Ambiguity aversion, Equity premium, Markov switching, Production economy, Smooth ambiguity

11.

Predictability and Underreaction in Industry-Level Returns: Evidence from Commodity Markets

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 16 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 12 Sep 2013
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Andrew Vivian and Mark E. Wohar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Loughborough University and University of Nebraska at Omaha
Downloads 314 (205,292)
Citation 1

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Asset pricing, Commodity markets, Equity markets, Industry-level returns, Information and market efficiency, Predictability, Underreaction

12.

Which Parametric Model for Conditional Skewness?

European Journal of Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2013
Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Roméo Tédongap
Bank of Canada, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and ESSEC Business School
Downloads 294 (220,195)
Citation 9

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Conditional skewness, Downside risk, Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, Realized skewness

13.

U.S. Industry-Level Returns and Oil Prices

International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol. 22, No. 1, 2012
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 16 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 21 Jun 2012
Qinbin Fan and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
University of Iowa and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 221 (293,106)
Citation 3

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Industry-Level Returns, Market Efficiency, Oil Prices, Return Predictability, Underreaction

14.

Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty and U.S. Equity Returns

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 12 Jan 2021 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2024
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Yuriy Kitsul, Jamil A. Rahman and Beth Anne Wilson
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Yale School of Management and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 199 (323,574)

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JEL Classification: G11, G12, C13, E20, E30 Economic policy uncertainty, ICAPM, Return predictability, foreign sources of risk, transmission channels

15.

When Do Low-Frequency Measures Really Measure Effective Spreads? Evidence From Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

The Review of Financial Studies
Number of pages: 88 Posted: 20 Dec 2021 Last Revised: 22 Dec 2022
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Filip Zikes
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 198 (326,577)
Citation 4

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Liquidity, effective spreads, transaction costs

16.

Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

The Review of Financial Studies, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 21 Dec 2017 Last Revised: 05 Oct 2018
A. Ronald Gallant, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Hening Liu
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, Economics Group, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and The University of Manchester - Alliance Manchester Business School
Downloads 195 (329,715)
Citation 1

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Ambiguity, Bayesian Estimation, Equity Premium, Markov-Switching, Long-Run Risk

17.

How useful are credit gap-based early warning indicators of financial crises?

Downloads 193 (332,880)

How useful are credit gap-based early warning indicators of financial crises?

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 06 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 16 Oct 2021
Daniel O. Beltran, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Fiona Paine
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and MIT Sloan Finance Group
Downloads 88 (622,430)

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Credit, Credit Gap, Optimization, Predictive Power, Robustness, Trend-Cycle Decomposition

Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs

FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1307 https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2021.1307
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 23 Apr 2021
Daniel O. Beltran, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Fiona Paine
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and MIT Sloan Finance Group
Downloads 62 (760,923)

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Credit; Credit Gap; Optimization; Predictive Power; Robustness; Trend-cycle decomposition

Optimizing Composite Early Warning Indicators

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 28 Apr 2023
Daniel O. Beltran, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Fiona Paine
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and MIT Sloan Finance Group
Downloads 43 (907,921)

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JEL Classification: C22, E39, G28 Business cycle, Credit cycle, Early warning indicators, Equity prices, Financial crisis, Optimization, Trend-cycle decomposition

18.

Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses Across Structural Models

Downloads 167 (378,913)
Citation 3

Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses Across Structural Models

BIS Working Paper No. 507
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 03 Aug 2015
Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Michael T. Kiley, Albert Queralto and Jae Sim
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 118 (504,619)

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Banks, DSGE Models, Capital Requirements, Bank Losses

Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Sector Losses Across Structural Models

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-044, FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-44
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 10 Jul 2015
Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, Francisco Covas, John C. Driscoll, Michael T. Kiley, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Albert Queralto and Jae Sim
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 49 (855,631)
Citation 3

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Bank losses, Banks, Capital requirements, DSGE models

19.

Measuring Ambiguity Aversion

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-105
Number of pages: 48 Posted: 25 Nov 2015
A. Ronald Gallant, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Hening Liu
Duke University, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and The University of Manchester - Alliance Manchester Business School
Downloads 161 (390,972)

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Ambiguity aversion, Bayesian estimation, Equity premium puzzle, Markov switching

20.

When Do Low-Frequency Measures Really Measure Transaction Costs?

FEDS Working Paper No. 2019-051
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 17 Jul 2019
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Filip Zikes
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 140 (438,580)
Citation 1

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Liquidity Risk, Transaction Costs, Volatility

21.

Institutions and Return Predictability in Oil-Exporting Countries

FEDS Working Paper No. 2015-014, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.014
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 07 Apr 2015
Sirio Aramonte, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Justin Shugarman
Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB)
Downloads 136 (448,862)

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Country studies, Quality of institutions, Return predictability

22.

Risk and Return in the Tehran Stock Exchange

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Volume 53, Issue 3, August 2013, Pages 238-256, ISSN 1062-9769
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 16 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2013
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Hassan Mohammadi
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Illinois State University
Downloads 136 (448,862)
Citation 2

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Asymmetry, Conditional correlation, Conditional skewness, Efficiency, Emerging and frontier markets, Granger causality, ICAPM, Markov switching, Volatility

23.

Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 45(6), 1117-1146. DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12046
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 16 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 20 Aug 2013
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Xuan Liu and Philip Rothman
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, East Carolina University - Department of Economics and East Carolina University - Department of Economics
Downloads 125 (479,924)
Citation 3

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Asset Pricing, Equity Returns, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, Real Business Cycle, Small Open Economy

24.

Risk-Return Trade-Off in the Pacific Basin Equity Markets

Emerging Markets Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 28 Dec 2011 Last Revised: 25 Jan 2014
Ai-ru Meg Cheng and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 109 (532,549)

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Binormal distribution, Conditional variance, Conditional skewness, GARCH, Intertemporal CAPM, Mixed data sampling, Pacific basin equity markets, Risk-return trade-off

25.

Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1221
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 22 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
A. Ronald Gallant, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Hening Liu
Pennsylvania State University, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and The University of Manchester - Alliance Manchester Business School
Downloads 107 (540,013)
Citation 6

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Ambiguity, Bayesian estimation, equity premiums, Markov-switching, long-run risks

26.

Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

Downloads 87 (628,259)

Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 30 Nov 2023
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Bill Lang
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 73 (706,795)

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JEL Classification: C22, E27, G17 Mixed-frequency data sampling regressions, forecasting, high-frequency financial data, capital-and labor-intensive industry equity returns

Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 24 Jun 2024
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar and Bill Lang
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 14 (1,250,898)

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JEL Classification: C22, E27, G17 Mixed-frequency data sampling regressions, forecasting, high-frequency financial data, capital-and labor-intensive industry equity returns

27.

Flood Insurance Coverage in the Coastal Zone

East Carolina University Economics Department Working Paper No. ecu0804
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 27 Apr 2011
Craig E. Landry and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
UGA Ag & Applied Economics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 69 (706,434)

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Insurance coverage, flood, hazard, coastal, erosion, Tobit model

28.

Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty and U.S. Equity Returns

International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1401
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 19 Dec 2024
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Yuriy Kitsul, Jamil A. Rahman and Beth Anne Wilson
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Yale School of Management and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 53 (814,017)

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Economic policy uncertainty, Cash flows, Discount rates, ICAPM, Return predictability, Transmission channels

29.

Trend-Cycle Decomposition and Forecasting Using Bayesian Multivariate Unobserved Components

FEDS Working Paper No. 2024-100
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 06 Jan 2025
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Charles Knipp and Pawel Szerszen
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Independent and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Downloads 42 (904,326)

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Bayesian estimation, Maximum likelihood estimation, Online forecasting, Out-of-sample forecasting, Parameter uncertainty, Sequential Monte Carlo methods, Trend-cycle decomposition

30.

The Third SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility: Monetary Policy and Banking Regulation Under Elevated Uncertainty

FEDS Notes No. 2023-12-15-4
Posted: 16 Jan 2024
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Juan M. Londono, Beth Anne Wilson and Ilknur Zer
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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31.

Non-Financial Corporate Credit and Recessions

FEDS Notes No. 2021-03-19-1
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2877
Posted: 22 Mar 2021
Stephanie E. Curcuru and Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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