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Osamu Nishiura

National Institute for Environmental Studies

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Fossil Tariffs and Green Industrial Policy in Fragmented Geopolitics: Multi-Model Evidence on Mitigation Costs and Critical-Minerals Constraints

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 12 Feb 2026
Lara Aleluia Reis, Matteo Calcaterra, Leticia Magalar, Paola Rocchi, Laurent Drouet, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Zoi Vrontisi, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Shinichiro Fujimori, Limeng Fan, Osamu Nishiura, Rahel Mandaroux, Oliver Richters, Sophie Fuchs, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Harmen De Boer, Vassilis Daioglou, Oliver Fricko, Bas van Ruijven, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi and Massimo Tavoni
RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), E3Modelling S.A., E3Modelling S.A., E3Modelling S.A., Kyoto University, Kyoto University, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Utrecht University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change
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Abstract:

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Energy import tariffs, Industrial policy, Climate mitigation pathways, Geopolitical fragmentation scenarios, Trade retaliation, Technology spillovers, Critical minerals constraints, Integrated assessment models (IAMs)