Emerson Fernandes Marçal

Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

Head

Rua Itapeva 286 10 andar

São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000

Brazil

http://sites.google.com/view/emersonmarcal/

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

DOWNLOADS
Rank 28,511

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 28,511

in Total Papers Downloads

3,321

SSRN CITATIONS

2

CROSSREF CITATIONS

4

Scholarly Papers (31)

1.

Evaluation of Contagion or Interdependence in the Financial Crises of Asia and Latin America, Considering the Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 20 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 13 Apr 2009
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV, Mackenzie University and Mackenzie Presbiterian University - PPGAE
Downloads 318 (175,255)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

Contagion, Interdependence, Financial Crisis

2.

Forecasting Brazilian Inflation by Its Aggregate and Disaggregated Data: A Test of Predictive Power by Forecast Horizon

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 10 Feb 2013 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2016
Thiago Carlos and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
UBS AG - UBS Brazil Broker Dealer and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 217 (256,901)

Abstract:

Loading...

Inflation, forecasting, ARIMA, space-state model, Markov-switching, Model Confidence Set

3.

Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 19 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Fernando C. Barbi
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 189 (291,542)

Abstract:

Loading...

cointegration, fundamentals

4.

WTO x PTAs -- Where to Negotiate Trade and Currency

Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/09
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 18 Jun 2014
Vera Thorstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
São Paulo School of Economics (EESP) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 186 (295,689)

Abstract:

Loading...

5.

Testing Rational Expectations in a Cointegrated VAR with Abrupt Structural Change

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 30 Apr 2007 Last Revised: 10 Feb 2023
Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 172 (316,836)

Abstract:

Loading...

cointegration, structural change, rational expectation models

6.

Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 Apr 2009
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 171 (318,453)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

Contagion, Multivariate Volatility Models

7.

Is It Possible to Beat the Random Walk Model in Exchange Rate Forecasting? More Evidence for Brazilian Case.

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 17 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2020
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Eli Júnior
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Mackenzie Presbyterian University
Downloads 165 (328,416)

Abstract:

Loading...

forecast, exchange rate, random walk

8.

Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Trade Policy: Impacts on Tariffs

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 09 Mar 2012
Vera Throstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 160 (337,160)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

misalignment, exchange rate, tariffs, WTO

9.

Assessing Interdependence Among Countries' Fundamentals and Its Implications for Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates: An Empirical Exercise Based on GVAR

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 08 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 11 Jul 2014
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 129 (400,624)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

10.

Is Government Spending Effective in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis

Number of pages: 52 Posted: 28 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2018
Diogo de Prince, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Márcio Holland
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 128 (402,943)

Abstract:

Loading...

fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, structural VAR, TVAR, sign restriction

11.

Testing the Long-Run Implications of the Expectation Hypothesis Using Co-integration Techniques with Structural Change

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Dec 2007 Last Revised: 11 Sep 2013
Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Pedro L. Valls Pereira and Omar Abbara
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 115 (436,579)

Abstract:

Loading...

Term structure, cointegration, structural change

12.

Supplementary Material: A Time Series Analysis of Household Income Inequality in Brazil from 1977-2013

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 12 Oct 2016 Last Revised: 25 May 2019
Marcel Caparoz, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Enlinson Mattos
RC Consultores, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 102 (476,388)

Abstract:

Loading...

13.

Deviations from Covered Interest Parity: The Role Played by Fundamentals, Financial and Political Turmoils and Market Frictions.

Marçal, E. F., & da Costa, M. G. (2021). Deviations from the covered interest parity: The role of fundamentals, financial and political turmoil, and market frictions. Brazilian Review of Finance, 19(2), 91-122.
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 08 May 2019 Last Revised: 24 Feb 2022
Marisa Costa and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Mackenzie Presbyterian University and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 94 (502,786)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Automatic Model Selection, Covered Interest Rate Parity, Country Risk, Exchange rate, Interest rate

14.

Addressing Econometric Issues on How to Construct Theoretical Based Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates: Searching for a Comprehensive Approach

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 25 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 21 May 2017
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 93 (506,290)

Abstract:

Loading...

exchange rate misalignment, cointegration, identification

15.

Cross-Validation Based Forecasting Method: A Machine Learning Approach

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Feb 2019
Jeronymo Marcondes and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 83 (543,251)

Abstract:

Loading...

Economic Forecasting, Cross-Validation, Machine Learning, Model Combination, Model Selection

16.

Does Mixed Frequency Vector Error Correction Model Add Relevant Information to Exchange Misalignment Calculus? Evidence for United States

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 18 Oct 2014
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 81 (551,249)

Abstract:

Loading...

mixed frequency, cointegration, exchange rate misalignment

17.

Evaluating the Existence of Structural Change in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest: Evidence Based on Cointegration Models with Structural Break

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 25 Oct 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 80 (555,338)

Abstract:

Loading...

term structures, structural change

18.

Another Way of Testing the Current Account Approach: Evidence from United States and United Kingdom Data

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 09 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 23 Nov 2007
Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Wagner Oliveira Monteiro and Leonardo Cruz Basso
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration and Mackenzie Presbyterian University - Business Administration
Downloads 80 (555,338)

Abstract:

Loading...

Current account approach, cointegration, rational expectation models

19.

Consumption Tilting, Habit Persistence and Precautionary Savings: Are They a New Hope for Current Account Approach?

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 19 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 25 May 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Wagner Oliveira Monteiro
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration
Downloads 78 (563,410)

Abstract:

Loading...

Current account approach, cointegration, rational expectation model

20.

The Impacts of Information Asymmetry in Determining Bank Spreads

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 06 Dec 2011 Last Revised: 19 Dec 2011
Renato Ottoni and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 73 (585,022)

Abstract:

Loading...

spreads, panel data

21.

Do Robust Predictors Improve the Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts in Moments of Structural Break?

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 29 Dec 2023
Rodrigo Ashikawa and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
claritas and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 69 (603,351)

Abstract:

Loading...

Inflation Expectations; Robust Estimators

22.

Reinforcement Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Forecasting when There Are Structural Breaks

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 16 Feb 2023
Jeronymo Marcondes and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 68 (607,881)

Abstract:

Loading...

Economic Forecasting, Reinforcement Learning, Structural Breaks, Model Selection

23.

Are Professional Forecasters rational? What is the role of instability and what variables affect them?

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 24 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 22 Feb 2022
Diogo de Prince, Pedro L. Valls Pereira and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 63 (632,398)

Abstract:

Loading...

Rationality, Forecast, Inflation

24.

The Aftermath of 2008 Turmoil on Brazilian Economy: Tsunami or 'Marolinha'?

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 10 Aug 2017
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School Of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Sao Paulo School of Business Administration, Students
Downloads 59 (653,277)

Abstract:

Loading...

counterfactual analysis, structural change

25.

Exchange Rate Misalignments, Interdependence, Crises, and Currency Wars: An Empirical Assessment

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 26 Oct 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jan 2014
Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 59 (653,277)

Abstract:

Loading...

Real effective exchange rate, cointegration, exchange rate misalignment

26.

Modeling How Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Regional Employment: Analyzing the Brazilian Formal Labor Market Using the Global VAR Approach

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 23 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 18 Sep 2020
Bruno Tebaldi and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 58 (658,660)

Abstract:

Loading...

GVAR, cointegration, regional dynamics, labor market

27.

EU-Mercosur Trade Relations: Impacts of Exchange Rate Misalignments on Tariffs

CEPS Working Paper No. 372
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 18 Feb 2013 Last Revised: 21 Jun 2013
Vera Thorstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
São Paulo School of Economics (EESP) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 55 (675,336)

Abstract:

Loading...

EU, Mercosur, Brazil, misalignment on tariffs, trade and exchange rate misalignments

28.

Is China a Market Economy? An Assessment Based on the Brazilian Anti-Dumping Experience

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 18 Jan 2023
Marina Takitani, Sergio goldbaum and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 54 (681,077)

Abstract:

Loading...

Antidumping, China, Market Economy, Difference-in-Differences

29.

Evaluating the Existence of Structural Change in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rate: Evidence Based on Cointegration Models with Structural Break

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 14 Sep 2012
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 54 (681,077)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Loading...

Term structure of interest rates, Structural change, VECM

30.

Assessing Global Economic Activity Linkages: An Empirical Exercise Based on Global Autoregressive Regression

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 03 May 2018
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Sao Paulo School of Business Administration, Students
Downloads 48 (717,519)

Abstract:

Loading...

Economic growth, Linkages, Global VAR

31.

Present Value Model between Prices and Dividends with Constant and Time-Varying Expected Returns: Enterprise-Level Brazilian Stock Market Evidence from Non-Stationary Panels

Brazilian Business Review (2012)
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 21 Jun 2022
Independent researcher - Senior Analyst/Economist, Brazilian Central Bank, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Mackenzie Presbyterian University - Business Administration
Downloads 20 (940,839)

Abstract:

Loading...

present value model; unit root; cointegration; non-stationary panels