Emerson Fernandes Marçal

Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

Head

Rua Itapeva 286 10 andar

São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000

Brazil

http://cemap.fgv.br/en/emerson-marcal-en

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

27

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2,155

SSRN CITATIONS

0

CROSSREF CITATIONS

4

Scholarly Papers (27)

1.

Evaluation of Contagion or Interdependence in the Financial Crises of Asia and Latin America, Considering the Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 20 Sep 2007 Last Revised: 13 Apr 2009
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV, Mackenzie University and Mackenzie Presbiterian University - PPGAE
Downloads 268 (122,221)
Citation 1

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Contagion, Interdependence, Financial Crisis

2.

WTO x PTAs -- Where to Negotiate Trade and Currency

Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/09
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 18 Jun 2014
Vera Thorstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
São Paulo School of Economics (EESP) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 161 (197,299)

Abstract:

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3.

Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 19 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Fernando C. Barbi
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 161 (197,299)

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cointegration, fundamentals

4.

Forecasting Brazilian Inflation by Its Aggregate and Disaggregated Data: A Test of Predictive Power by Forecast Horizon

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 10 Feb 2013 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2016
Thiago Carlos and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
UBS AG - UBS Brazil Broker Dealer and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 160 (198,388)

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Inflation, forecasting, ARIMA, space-state model, Markov-switching, Model Confidence Set

5.

Testing Rational Expectations in a Cointegrated VAR with Abrupt Structural Change

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 30 Apr 2007 Last Revised: 27 Sep 2013
Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 146 (214,014)

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cointegration, structural change, rational expectation models

6.

Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 05 Apr 2009
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 142 (218,803)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Contagion, Multivariate Volatility Models

7.

Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Trade Policy: Impacts on Tariffs

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 09 Mar 2012
Vera Throstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 132 (231,960)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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misalignment, exchange rate, tariffs, WTO

8.

Assessing Interdependence Among Countries' Fundamentals and Its Implications for Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates: An Empirical Exercise Based on GVAR

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 08 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 11 Jul 2014
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 106 (272,286)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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9.

Is It Possible to Beat the Random Walk Model in Exchange Rate Forecasting? More Evidence for Brazilian Case.

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 17 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 04 Mar 2015
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Eli Júnior
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Mackenzie Presbyterian University
Downloads 98 (289,081)

Abstract:

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forecast, exchange rate, random walk

10.

Testing the Long-Run Implications of the Expectation Hypothesis Using Co-integration Techniques with Structural Change

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 04 Dec 2007 Last Revised: 11 Sep 2013
Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Pedro L. Valls Pereira and Omar Abbara
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 95 (292,963)

Abstract:

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Term structure, cointegration, structural change

11.

Is Government Spending Effective in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis

Number of pages: 52 Posted: 28 Jan 2017 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2018
Diogo de Prince, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Márcio Holland
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 77 (333,180)

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fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, structural VAR, TVAR, sign restriction

12.

Addressing Econometric Issues on How to Construct Theoretical Based Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates: Searching for a Comprehensive Approach

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 25 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 21 May 2017
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 75 (338,284)

Abstract:

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exchange rate misalignment, cointegration, identification

13.

Another Way of Testing the Current Account Approach: Evidence from United States and United Kingdom Data

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 09 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 23 Nov 2007
Emerson Fernandes Marçal, Wagner Oliveira Monteiro and Leonardo Cruz Basso
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration and Mackenzie Presbyterian University - Business Administration
Downloads 63 (371,503)

Abstract:

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Current account approach, cointegration, rational expectation models

14.

Consumption Tilting, Habit Persistence and Precautionary Savings: Are They a New Hope for Current Account Approach?

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 19 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 25 May 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Wagner Oliveira Monteiro
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration
Downloads 60 (380,642)

Abstract:

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Current account approach, cointegration, rational expectation model

15.

Evaluating the Existence of Structural Change in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest: Evidence Based on Cointegration Models with Structural Break

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 25 Oct 2011
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 55 (396,962)

Abstract:

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term structures, structural change

16.

Supplementary Material: A Time Series Analysis of Household Income Inequality in Brazil from 1977-2013

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 12 Oct 2016 Last Revised: 25 May 2019
Marcel Caparoz, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Enlinson Mattos
RC Consultores, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 46 (428,781)

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17.

The Impacts of Information Asymmetry in Determining Bank Spreads

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 06 Dec 2011 Last Revised: 19 Dec 2011
Renato Ottoni and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 46 (428,781)

Abstract:

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spreads, panel data

18.

Exchange Rate Misalignments, Interdependence, Crises, and Currency Wars: An Empirical Assessment

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 26 Oct 2013 Last Revised: 12 Jan 2014
Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 40 (452,774)

Abstract:

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Real effective exchange rate, cointegration, exchange rate misalignment

19.

Evaluating the Existence of Structural Change in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rate: Evidence Based on Cointegration Models with Structural Break

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 14 Sep 2012
Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Pedro L. Valls Pereira
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV
Downloads 37 (465,428)

Abstract:

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Term structure of interest rates, Structural change, VECM

20.

EU-Mercosur Trade Relations: Impacts of Exchange Rate Misalignments on Tariffs

CEPS Working Paper No. 372
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 18 Feb 2013 Last Revised: 21 Jun 2013
Vera Thorstensen, Emerson Fernandes Marçal and Lucas Ferraz
São Paulo School of Economics (EESP) at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics
Downloads 32 (488,365)

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EU, Mercosur, Brazil, misalignment on tariffs, trade and exchange rate misalignments

21.

Does Mixed Frequency Vector Error Correction Model Add Relevant Information to Exchange Misalignment Calculus? Evidence for United States

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 18 Oct 2014
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students
Downloads 31 (493,253)

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mixed frequency, cointegration, exchange rate misalignment

22.

Assessing Global Economic Activity Linkages: An Empirical Exercise Based on Global Autoregressive Regression

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 03 May 2018
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Sao Paulo School of Business Administration, Students
Downloads 28 (509,071)

Abstract:

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Economic growth, Linkages, Global VAR

23.

Deviations from Covered Interest Parity: The Role Played by Fundamentals, Nancial and Political Turmoils and Market Frictions.

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 08 May 2019
Marisa Costa and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Mackenzie Presbyterian University and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 26 (520,149)

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Automatic Model Selection, Covered Interest Rate Parity, Country Risk, Exchange rate, Interest rate

24.

Modeling How Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Regional Employment: Analyzing the Brazilian Formal Labor Market Using the Global VAR Approach

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 23 Feb 2018
Bruno Tebaldi and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 23 (537,832)

Abstract:

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GVAR, cointegration, regional dynamics, labor market

25.

Cross-Validation Based Forecasting Method: A Machine Learning Approach

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Feb 2019
Jeronymo Marcondes and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 21 (550,238)

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Economic Forecasting, Cross-Validation, Machine Learning, Model Combination, Model Selection

26.

The Aftermath of 2008 Turmoil on Brazilian Economy: Tsunami or 'Marolinha'?

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 10 Aug 2017
Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV, Sao Paulo School Of Economics - FGV, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Sao Paulo School of Economics, Students and Sao Paulo School of Business Administration, Students
Downloads 19 (562,846)

Abstract:

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counterfactual analysis, structural change

27.

Are Professional Forecasters Rational? Evidence for Brazilian Dataset

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 24 Mar 2020
Diogo de Prince, Pedro L. Valls Pereira and Emerson Fernandes Marçal
Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV and CEQEF- FGV and Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV
Downloads 7 (642,091)

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Rationality, Forecast, Inflation