Kenneth C. Lichtendahl

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

Assistant Professor

P.O. Box 6550

Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550

United States

  • University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

26

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3,609

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 35,391

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15

CROSSREF CITATIONS

2

Scholarly Papers (26)

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1.

Airbus and Boeing: Superjumbo Decisions

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0720
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 461 (62,937)
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subjective probability, decision trees, simulation, real options, game theory

2.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Victor Richmond Jose
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 432 (68,047)
Citation 1

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3.

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1926330
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2015
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 387 (77,593)
Citation 4

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forecasting competitions, strategic forecasting, expert opinion, averaging opinions, combining forecasts.

4.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 345 (88,606)
Citation 3

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

5.

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2066806
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 25 May 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 344 (88,889)

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probability forecasts, quantile forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pooling

6.

Incentives in a Stage-Gate Process

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1738531
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 10 May 2013
Raul O. Chao, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 341 (89,758)

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Innovation; New Product Development; Principal-Agent Analysis; Search; Complex Performance Landscapes

7.

Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 07-05
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Feb 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 205 (152,049)
Citation 4

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probability elicitation; scoring rules; forecasting competitions; probability forecasts; truthful revelation; overconfidence bias

8.

An Exponential Smoothing Model with a Life Cycle Trend

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2805244
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 08 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 04 Sep 2019
Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 195 (159,319)

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demand forecasting; capacity planning; inventory management; new product adoption; skewed diffusions; quantile forecasts

9.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 177 (173,820)
Citation 2

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

10.

Snackchips in China

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0698
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert T. Clemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University
Downloads 142 (209,355)
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decision analysis, simulation, real options, and game theory

11.

Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1924547
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 09 Sep 2011
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 137 (215,542)

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expected utility theory, prospect theory, common ratio effect, nonlinear sensitivity to probabilities

12.

Kelly Solar

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1614
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 07 Apr 2010
Samuel E. Bodily, Marc L. Lipson and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 115 (246,295)
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debt, agency cost, bargaining, renegotiation, entrepreneur, financial claims, debt financing, debt overhang

13.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 97 (276,914)
Citation 3

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

14.

Random Quantiles Associated with the Dirichlet Process

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 25 Oct 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 70 (337,180)

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Bayesian nonparametrics, Quantile process, Quantile regression, Combination of forecasts

15.

Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts

Number of pages: 28 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 08 Oct 2019
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 60 (365,330)

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized linear model; extremizing and anti-extremizing; bracketing; probit ensemble

16.

Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0734
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 05 Apr 2010
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 46 (411,622)
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probability forecasts, quantiles, value-at-risk, scoring rules

17.

The Promise of Prediction Contests

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2317477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 45 (415,318)
Citation 1

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Forecast Aggregation, Forecasting Contests, Picking Contests, Public Knowledge Bias, Wisdom of Crowds

18.

A/B Testing at Vungle

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0821
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Bert De Reyck and Ioannis Fragkos
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University College London
Downloads 4 (636,471)
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hypothesis testing, A/B test, horse race, paired t-test, parallel run, algorithm, eRPM, conversion rate

19.

Yahoo's Acquisition of Tumblr

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0818
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Andrew Kritzer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (653,684)
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R file, forecasting, growth forecasting, time series, time series analysis, revenue forecasting, exponential smoothing, smoothing models, Yahoo, Yahoo!, Tumblr, Marissa Mayer, Facebook

20.

Segmenting Clinton and Obama Voters

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0807
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (653,684)
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forecasting, data visualization, supervised learning, stepwise regression, regression tree, predictive analytics

21.

Ocean's Dilemma

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0798
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (665,607)
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NPV, matrix

22.

Surveying Professional Forecasters

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0805
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (665,607)
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APE, absolute percentage error, nominal gdp, random judge

23.

Opening Casino Jack

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0827
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Andrew Green and Temple Fennell
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (682,448)
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advertising, distribution

24.

Scoring Expert Forecasts

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0772
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (682,448)
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log scoring rule, Brier scoring rule, fractile, quantile, percentile, probability mass function, probability density function

25.

Pricemax

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0748
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (682,448)
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forecasting, guidance, ranges, distributions, EPS

26.

Ballis's Benchmark (a)

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1621
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 May 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (682,448)
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persistence hot hand benchmark fund data filtering regression