Kenneth C. Lichtendahl

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

Assistant Professor

P.O. Box 6550

Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550

United States

  • University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

37

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38

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2

Scholarly Papers (37)

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1.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Robert L. Winkler, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Victor Richmond Jose
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 571 (71,257)
Citation 7

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2.

Airbus and Boeing: Superjumbo Decisions

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0720
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 467 (91,173)
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subjective probability, decision trees, simulation, real options, game theory

3.

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1926330
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2015
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 420 (103,160)
Citation 7

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forecasting competitions, strategic forecasting, expert opinion, averaging opinions, combining forecasts.

4.

Carvana: IsBadBuy?

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0886
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 13 Sep 2020
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 401 (109,160)

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Carvana, automotive industry, competition, prediction, used cars, online, distance learning, Tableau, data science, visual analytics, programming, coding

5.

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2066806
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 25 May 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 393 (111,354)
Citation 2

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probability forecasts, quantile forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pooling

6.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 392 (111,685)
Citation 7

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

7.

An Exponential Smoothing Model with a Life Cycle Trend

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2805244
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 08 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 04 Sep 2019
Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 389 (112,617)

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demand forecasting; capacity planning; inventory management; new product adoption; skewed diffusions; quantile forecasts

8.

Incentives in a Stage-Gate Process

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1738531
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 10 May 2013
Raul O. Chao, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 380 (115,652)
Citation 1

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Innovation; New Product Development; Principal-Agent Analysis; Search; Complex Performance Landscapes

9.

Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 07-05
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Feb 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 235 (190,507)
Citation 4

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probability elicitation; scoring rules; forecasting competitions; probability forecasts; truthful revelation; overconfidence bias

10.

Dueling contests and platform's coordinating role

University of California, San Diego, Rady School of Management Working Paper No 3485193, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 3485193
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 15 Nov 2019 Last Revised: 03 Dec 2021
Konstantinos I. Stouras, Sanjiv Erat and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
UCD, Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 206 (215,540)
Citation 1

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crowdsourcing; nudges; incentives; multiple contests; endogenous participation

11.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 203 (218,448)
Citation 5

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

12.

Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1924547
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 09 Sep 2011
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 154 (276,627)

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expected utility theory, prospect theory, common ratio effect, nonlinear sensitivity to probabilities

13.

Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 146 (288,887)
Citation 1

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized linear model; extremizing and anti-extremizing; bracketing; probit ensemble

14.

Snackchips in China

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0698
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 23 Jun 2009
Samuel E. Bodily, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Robert T. Clemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University
Downloads 144 (292,067)
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decision analysis, simulation, real options, and game theory

15.

Kelly Solar

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1614
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 07 Apr 2010
Samuel E. Bodily, Marc L. Lipson and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 118 (339,075)
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debt, agency cost, bargaining, renegotiation, entrepreneur, financial claims, debt financing, debt overhang

16.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Victor Richmond Jose and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 116 (343,189)
Citation 5

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

17.

Random Quantiles Associated with the Dirichlet Process

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 25 Oct 2007
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 88 (411,361)

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Bayesian nonparametrics, Quantile process, Quantile regression, Combination of forecasts

18.

The Promise of Prediction Contests

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2317477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 58 (514,916)
Citation 2

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Forecast Aggregation, Forecasting Contests, Picking Contests, Public Knowledge Bias, Wisdom of Crowds

19.

Tweets, Retweets, and Entrepreneurship

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0838
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 12 Sep 2020
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Sasha Friedman and John Greenfield
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Independent and Independent
Downloads 50 (550,179)

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entrepreneurship, social media, marketing, Twitter, analytics, natural language processing

20.

Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0734
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 05 Apr 2010
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 47 (564,372)
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probability forecasts, quantiles, value-at-risk, scoring rules

21.

Yahoo's Acquisition of Tumblr

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0818
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Andrew Kritzer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 16 (772,956)
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R file, forecasting, growth forecasting, time series, time series analysis, revenue forecasting, exponential smoothing, smoothing models, Yahoo, Yahoo!, Tumblr, Marissa Mayer, Facebook

22.

Segmenting Clinton and Obama Voters

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0807
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 8 (853,157)
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forecasting, data visualization, supervised learning, stepwise regression, regression tree, predictive analytics

23.

Fannie Mae's Data Dynamics

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0903
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 19 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 07 Dec 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Elena Loutskina, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 7 (864,199)
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code, visualize data, test hypotheses, validate model results, Brier score, variable importance plot, AI

24.

A/B Testing at Vungle

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0821
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Bert De Reyck and Ioannis Fragkos
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University College London
Downloads 5 (886,797)
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hypothesis testing, A/B test, horse race, paired t-test, parallel run, algorithm, eRPM, conversion rate

25.

Zillow Offers' "Volatile Error Rate"

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0944
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 31 May 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Benjamin Boatright
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Independent
Downloads 4 (898,790)
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real estate, iBuying, forecasting, Zestimate, adverse selection, home value, Zillow Offers

26.

Diy Zillow

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0931
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 07 Mar 2022 Last Revised: 08 Mar 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Benjamin Boatright and Joe Andrasko
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Independent and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 3 (911,649)
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predictive modeling, data preparation, model scoring, SQL, data visualization, regression, geographical data

27.

Opening Casino Jack

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0827
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Andrew Green and Temple Fennell
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (924,956)
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advertising, distribution

28.

Surveying Professional Forecasters

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0805
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (924,956)
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APE, absolute percentage error, nominal gdp, random judge

29.

Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery Explainable AI

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0943
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 11 Aug 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Benjamin Boatright
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Independent
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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Google Cloud Platform, GCP, BigQuery ML, Explainable AI, artificial intelligence, machine learning, XAI, predictive models, interpretable model

30.

Google Cloud Platform: Cloud Storage

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0941
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 14 Jun 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Joe Andrasko and Benjamin Boatright
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Independent
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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Google Cloud Platform, GCP, Cloud Storage, cloud computing, BigQuery, structured query language, SQL, database, dataset, data analysis, big data, storage bucket, data lake

31.

Introduction to Tableau

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0940
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 18 Apr 2022 Last Revised: 19 Apr 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Joe Andrasko and Benjamin Boatright
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Independent
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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Tableau, data visualization, data analysis, big data

32.

Movielens: Filtering on Others' Reactions

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0927
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 22 Oct 2021 Last Revised: 10 Nov 2021
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Benjamin Boatright and Paul Holtz
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Independent and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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recommendation system, relational database, collaborative filtering, machine learning, SQL

33.

Ocean's Dilemma

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0798
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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NPV, matrix

34.

Scoring Expert Forecasts

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0772
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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log scoring rule, Brier scoring rule, fractile, quantile, percentile, probability mass function, probability density function

35.

Pricemax

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0748
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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forecasting, guidance, ranges, distributions, EPS

36.

Ballis's Benchmark (a)

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1621
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 May 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (938,603)
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persistence hot hand benchmark fund data filtering regression

37.

Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0929
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 14 Jun 2022
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Joe Andrasko and Benjamin Boatright
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Independent
Downloads 0 (952,441)
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Google Cloud Platform, GCP, cloud computing, BigQuery, structured query language, SQL, database, dataset, data analysis, big data