Lisa R. Goldberg

University of California, Berkeley

Director of Research, Center for Risk Management and Adjunct Professor of Statistics

Department of Statistics

367 Evans Hall

Berkeley, CA 94720-3860

United States

Aperio Group

Director of Research

3 Harbor Drive

Suite 315

Sausalito, CA 94965

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

45

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18,080

CITATIONS
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Top 4,067

in Total Papers Citations

133

Scholarly Papers (45)

1.

Extreme Risk Management

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-4
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 12 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 19 Feb 2009
University of California, Berkeley, MSCI Inc., MSCI Barra and University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business
Downloads 1,241 (10,143)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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risk management, quantitative extreme

2.

The Market Price of Credit Risk: The Impact of Asymmetric Information

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 08 Oct 2003 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2016
Kay Giesecke and Lisa R. Goldberg
Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 1,051 (13,962)
Citation 2

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risk premium, default event risk, jump risk, incomplete information, asymmetric information, measure change

3.

Market Implied Ratings

Risk Magazine, July 2003
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 13 Aug 2003
Ludovic L. Breger, Lisa R. Goldberg and Oren Cheyette
Morgan Stanley - Fixed Income Research, University of California, Berkeley and Loomis Sayles
Downloads 881 (16,744)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Credit rating, risk, market implied ratings

Beyond Value at Risk: Forecasting Portfolio Loss at Multiple Horizons

Number of pages: 34 Posted: 22 Oct 2007
Lisa R. Goldberg, Guy Miller and Jared Weinstein
University of California, Berkeley, BARRA, Inc. - Equity Research and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Downloads 863 (21,818)
Citation 9

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value at risk, expected shortfall, loss surface, downside risk, tail risk, peaks over thresholds, semi-parametric distribution, Fourier transform, temporal dependence

Beyond Value at Risk: Forecasting Portfolio Loss at Multiple Horizons

Journal of Investment Management, Vol. 6, No. 2, Second quarter 2008
Posted: 15 May 2008
Lisa R. Goldberg, Guy Miller and Jared Weinstein
University of California, Berkeley, Merrill Lynch & Co. and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)

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Extreme risk, loss surface, expected shortfall, peaks over thresholds, temporal risk aggregation

5.

Affine Point Processes and Portfolio Credit Risk

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 14 Jun 2006 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2010
Eymen Errais, Kay Giesecke and Lisa R. Goldberg
Stanford University, Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 853 (20,697)
Citation 30

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Self-exciting point process, affine jump diffusion, Hawkes process, transform, portfolio credit derivative, correlated default, index and tranche swap

6.

Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 01 Dec 2004
Lisa R. Goldberg and Kay Giesecke
University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering
Downloads 743 (25,572)

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Extreme events, normal distribution, extreme value distribution, power law, Pareto distribution, peaks over thresholds, tail index, shortfall risk, Hurst exponent, clustering, contagion, point process

7.

Modeling Value at Risk with Factors

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-39
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 22 Nov 2009
MSCI Inc., affiliation not provided to SSRN, MSCI Barra, MSCI Inc., MSCI Inc., MSCI Barra and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 706 (23,515)

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modeling value, risk factors, investment, management, forecasts, portfolio, construction, shorter, longer, horizons, value-at-risk, VaR

8.

Will My Risk Parity Strategy Outperform?

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 08 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2012
Robert M. Anderson, Stephen W. Bianchi and Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 658 (28,312)
Citation 5

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Risk parity, value weighting, fixed mix, leverage, turnover, trading costs, borrowing costs, market frictions, statistical significance, outperformance, Sharpe ratio

9.

A Top-Down Approach to Multi-Name Credit

Operations Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 15 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2016
Kay Giesecke, Lisa R. Goldberg and Xiaowei Ding
Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering, University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University
Downloads 617 (32,811)
Citation 33

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correlated defaults, point process, random thinning, single-name hedging, top-down model

10.

Forecasting Default in the Face of Uncertainty

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 14-25, 2004
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 17 Mar 2003
Lisa R. Goldberg and Kay Giesecke
University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering
Downloads 581 (34,450)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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credit risk, incomplete information, pricing trend, short spreads, default barrier

11.

Restoring Value to Minimum Variance

Forthcoming in Journal of Investment Management
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 05 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 26 Nov 2013
Lisa R. Goldberg, Ran Leshem and Patrick Geddes
University of California, Berkeley, Aperio Group and Aperio Group
Downloads 527 (37,595)

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minimum variance, low risk, value factor

12.

Extreme Risk Analysis, July 2009

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-16
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 14 May 2009 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2009
University of California, Berkeley, MSCI Inc., MSCI Barra and University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business
Downloads 492 (38,681)
Citation 4

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extreme, risk, analysis, volatility, shortfall, different, risk, measures, standard, analytics

On the Aggregation of Local Risk Models for Global Risk Management

Journal of Risk, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2005
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 06 Jun 2005
University of California, Berkeley, Florida State University - Department of Mathematics, MSCI Barra, BARRA, Inc. - Equity Research and Morgan Stanley - Fixed Income Research
Downloads 489 (47,240)

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portfolio risk, total risk, optimization, positive definite

On the Aggregation of Local Risk Models for Global Risk Management

Journal of Risk, Vol. 8, No. 1, Fall 2005
Posted: 10 Nov 2005
University of California, Berkeley, MSCI Barra, Florida State University - Department of Mathematics, BARRA, Inc. - Equity Research and Morgan Stanley - Fixed Income Research

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single-market covariance matrix forecasts, global forecast, global covariance matrix forecast, cross-market correlations, positive semi-definite, numerical optimization problem

14.

What Would Yale Do If It Were Taxable?

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 71, No. 4, 2015
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 09 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 11 Aug 2015
Patrick Geddes, Lisa R. Goldberg and Stephen W. Bianchi
Aperio Group, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 470 (39,226)

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asset allocation, taxes, ultra-high net worth investors, endowments, hedge funds, tax-advantaged indexing, reverse optimization, equity-hedge fund correlation

15.

Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again

Mathematics and Financial Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 30 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2016
Lisa R. Goldberg and Ola Mahmoud
University of California, Berkeley and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 449 (24,216)

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drawdown; Conditional Expected Drawdown; deviation measure; risk attribution; convex optimization; serial correlation

16.

Investing in Credit: How Good is Your Information?

Risk, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. S16-S18, January 2004
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 28 Feb 2004
Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 446 (50,494)
Citation 2

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Credit risk, incomplete information, default, recovery, risk premium, power curve

17.

Determinants of Levered Portfolio Performance

Financial Analysts Journal, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 12 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 21 Apr 2014
Robert M. Anderson, Stephen W. Bianchi and Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 442 (44,107)

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Dynamic leverage, source portfolio, transaction costs, borrowing excess return, pension funds, hedge funds, trading costs, volatility target, leverage rule

18.
Downloads 331 ( 76,488)
Citation 1

The Long View of Financial Risk

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-29
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 16 Aug 2009
Lisa R. Goldberg and Michael Y. Hayes
University of California, Berkeley and MSCI Inc.
Downloads 331 (75,951)
Citation 1

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financial risk, extended history, market returns, variance, forecasts, shortfall, risk, perspective

The Long View of Financial Risk

Journal of Investment Management (JOIM), First Quarter 2010
Posted: 13 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2010
Lisa R. Goldberg and Michael Y. Hayes
University of California, Berkeley and MSCI Inc.

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Shortfall, volatility, return horizon, convex risk measure, diversification, portfolio optimization, reverse optimization, marginal contribution to risk, risk-implied correlation, beta

19.

Risk Without Return

Journal of Investment Strategies, Volume 2, No. 2, Spring 2013
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 24 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 03 Sep 2013
Lisa R. Goldberg and Ola Mahmoud
University of California, Berkeley and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 314 (66,566)
Citation 2

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20.

t-Statistics for Weighted Means in Credit Risk Modelling

Journal of Risk Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 19 May 2005
Alec N. Kercheval, Lisa R. Goldberg and Kiseop Lee
Florida State University - Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley and University of Louisville - Department of Mathematics
Downloads 301 (82,332)

Abstract:

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Weighted t-statistic, mean, risk model

21.

Catching Fallen Angels (and Other Expensive Credit Events)

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 21 Oct 2005
Lisa R. Goldberg and Andreas Zapp
University of California, Berkeley and BaFin
Downloads 244 (98,976)

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default, downgrade, credit event, incomplete information credit model, power curve

Stochastic Intensity Models of Wrong Way Risk: Wrong Way CVA Need Not Exceed Independent CVA

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 09 Oct 2013
Samim Ghamami and Lisa R. Goldberg
Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 169 (151,343)

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Credit Value Adjustment, Wrong Way Risk, Basel III CVA Capital Charges, Stochastic Intensity Modeling

Stochastic Intensity Models of Wrong Way Risk: Wrong Way CVA Need Not Exceed Independent CVA

FEDS Working Paper 2014-54
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 13 Aug 2014
Samim Ghamami and Lisa R. Goldberg
Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 73 (280,939)

Abstract:

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Credit value adjustment, stochastic intensity modeling, wrong way and right way risk, Basel III, counterparty credit risk

23.

The Long View of Financial Risk, August 2009

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-32
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 20 Nov 2009
Lisa R. Goldberg and Michael Y. Hayes
University of California, Berkeley and MSCI Inc.
Downloads 235 (104,513)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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long view financial risk, market returns, risk measure variance, alternative, shortfall, extreme moves, convex

24.

Evaluating Risk Forecasts with Central Limits

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 29 Mar 2008 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2008
MSCI Inc., MSCI Barra, MSCI Inc., University of California, Berkeley and MSCI Inc.
Downloads 217 (109,963)
Citation 3

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hyptothesis test, value at risk, expected shortfall

25.

Factoring Profitability

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 21 Dec 2013
Michael Branch, Lisa R. Goldberg and Ran Leshem
Aperio Group, University of California, Berkeley and Aperio Group
Downloads 211 (89,456)

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gross profitability, quality, factor model, value, earnings yield, book to market, momentum, factor replication

26.

Central Limits and Financial Risk

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-13
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 14 May 2009
MSCI Inc., MSCI Barra, MSCI Inc., University of California, Berkeley and MSCI Inc.
Downloads 208 (110,415)
Citation 2

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Systematic model global recession quantitative finance random variables central limit theorem normal distribution financial risk

27.

A Structural Analysis of the Default Swap Market - Part 2 (Relative Value)

Journal of Investment Management, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 19 Aug 2008
Lisa R. Goldberg, Rajnish Kamat and Jason Kremer
University of California, Berkeley, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Global Key Advisors
Downloads 208 (120,579)

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CDS, implied spread, structural model, relative value, credit risk, default swap, iSpread, rich-cheap strategy, carry-neutral strategy, beta-neutral strategy, transaction costs, information ratio, structural credit model

28.

Allocating Assets in Climates of Extreme Risk

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2011-08
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 27 Apr 2011
Stacy Cuffe and Lisa R. Goldberg
MSCI Inc. and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 198 (114,271)

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Allocating Assets Climates of Extreme Risk portfolio stress testing extreme scenario sset Allocation Stress Testing Risk Management Portfolio Construction investment processes

29.

Minimizing Shortfall

Quantitative Finance, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 03 Feb 2011 Last Revised: 22 Sep 2016
Lisa R. Goldberg, Michael Y. Hayes and Ola Mahmoud
University of California, Berkeley, MSCI Inc. and University of St. Gallen
Downloads 175 (125,609)

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empirical study, shortfall, optimization, Barra, Extreme Risk minimum, shortfall minimum, variance portfolios, US, UK, Japanese equity markets, Barra, Style Factors, Value Growth Momentum measures overall asymmetry

30.

Analyzing the Extreme Risk of a U.S Corporate Bond Portfolio, November 2009

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2009-43
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 13 Feb 2010
Peter Chan, Lisa R. Goldberg, Michael Y. Hayes and Eric Tsang
MSCI Inc., University of California, Berkeley, MSCI Inc. and MSCI Inc.
Downloads 155 (154,491)

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Barra, Extreme Risk, BxR Model, Corporate Bond Portfolio, Forecast, xShortfall, xVaR

31.

In Search of Statistically Valid Risk Factors

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 16 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 04 Aug 2014
Robert M. Anderson, Stephen W. Bianchi and Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 146 (125,036)
Citation 1

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Factor volatility, variance, statistical significance, leverage point, beta, OLS regression, median regression, t-statistic, incremental explanatory power, outlier, VIX, FVIX

32.

Optimizing Value

Journal of Portfolio Management, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 08 May 2015 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Ran Leshem, Lisa R. Goldberg and Alan Cummings
Aperio Group, University of California, Berkeley and Aperio Group
Downloads 145 (79,966)

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Value, book-to-price, earnings-to-price, blended value strategy, optimized strategy, rank-and-chop strategy, sector constraint, tracking error, turnover

33.

Factor Tilts after Tax

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 15 Oct 2014
Lisa R. Goldberg and Ran Leshem
University of California, Berkeley and Aperio Group
Downloads 131 (146,690)

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factor tilt, taxes, tax alpha, factor alpha, tax-loss harvesting, wealth management, ultra-high net worth investors

34.

Building a Carbon-Free Equity Portfolio

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 16 Feb 2015
Aperio Group, University of California, Berkeley, Aperio Group and Aperio Group
Downloads 63 (204,283)

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Divestment, Endowment, Foundation, Individual Investor, New Institutional, Oil, Carbon-free, Energy, Utilities, Materials, Tracking Error

35.

Market Turmoil, a Value Index, and the UK Telecoms Industry, March 2010

MSCI Barra Research Paper No. 2010-09
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 07 May 2010
Patrick Burke d'Orey and Lisa R. Goldberg
MSCI Inc. and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 52 (313,864)

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Market Turmoil, Value Index, UK, Telecoms Industry, financial crisis, turnaround, MSCI, UK, Value Investable Market Index, MSCI, UK, Value, IMI, Barra, Extreme Risk, BxR model

36.

The Dispersion Bias

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 19 Nov 2017
Lisa R. Goldberg, Alex Papanicolaou and Alexander Shkolnik
University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley and University of California at Berkeley
Downloads 0 (466,537)

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Markowitz optimization, bias, sample covariance, shrinkage, random matrix theory

37.

Do the Golden State Warriors Have Hot Hands?

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 13 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 05 Nov 2017
Alon Daks, Nishant Desai and Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 0 (336,658)

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hot hand, streak shooting, conditional probability, small sample correction, permutation test, nonparametric test

38.

The Implied Futures Financing Rate

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 01 Dec 2016 Last Revised: 20 Apr 2017
Nicholas L Gunther, Robert M. Anderson and Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics and University of California, Berkeley
Downloads 0 (195,520)

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futures, financing, leverage, futures implied rate, S&P 500 Index, Commodity Futures Modernization Act, CFMA, financial crisis, bootstrap confidence interval, mean reversion

39.

The Impact of Estimation Error on Latent Factor Model Forecasts of Portfolio Risk

Journal of Portfolio Management, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 26 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 12 Jan 2017
Stephen W. Bianchi, Lisa R. Goldberg and Allan C. Rosenberg
University of California, Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley and State Steet Global Exchange
Downloads 0 (259,716)

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estimation error, latent factor model, simulation, minimum variance portfolio, equally weighted portfolio, underforecast

40.

Identifying Broad and Narrow Financial Risk Factors with Convex Optimization

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 25 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 21 Aug 2016
Alexander Shkolnik, Lisa R. Goldberg and Jeffrey R Bohn
University of California at Berkeley, University of California, Berkeley and University of California, Berkeley - Center for Risk Management Research
Downloads 0 (150,503)

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financial risk factors, broad, narrow, convex optimization, low rank plus sparse decomposition, principal component analysis

41.

Allocating Assets in Climates of Extreme Risk: A New Paradigm for Stress Testing Portfolios

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 2, 2012
Posted: 26 Mar 2012
Stacy Cuffe and Lisa R. Goldberg
MSCI Inc. and University of California, Berkeley

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Portfolio Management, Asset Allocation, Impact on Portfolio Returns, Economic Analysis and Capital Market Expectations, Macroeconomic Forecasts in Determining Asset Class/Security Return Expectations, Risk Management, Risk Management, Portfolio Risk Management

42.

A Structural Analysis of the Default Swap Market, Part 1 (Calibration)

Journal of Investment Management, Second Quarter 2009
Posted: 07 Oct 2008
Lisa R. Goldberg, Rajnish Kamat and Vijay Poduri
University of California, Berkeley, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Charles Schwab Investment Management

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Credit spread, structural model, risk factor, calibration parameter, firm value, firm leverage, distance to effective default, bounded influence estimation, inversion-minimization algorithm

43.

In Search of A Modigliani-Miller Economy

Journal of Investment Management, Vol. 2, No. 3, Third Quarter 2004
Posted: 16 Sep 2004
Lisa R. Goldberg and Kay Giesecke
University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering

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Credit risk, leverage ratio, incomplete information model, Modigliani-Miller theorem, Merton model

44.

Volatility of the Short Rate in the Rational Lognormal Model

Finance and Stochastics (1998)
Posted: 20 Apr 1998
Lisa R. Goldberg
University of California, Berkeley

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45.

Sequential Defaults And Incomplete Information

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 30 May 2004
Lisa R. Goldberg and Kay Giesecke
University of California, Berkeley and Stanford University - Management Science & Engineering
Downloads 0
Citation 9

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correlated defaults; incomplete information, pricing trend, intensity, simulation, first-to-default