affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, CSIRO, King’s College London - Department of Population Health Sciences, Geoscience Australia, CSIRO Land and Water, CSIRO, affiliation not provided to SSRN, CSIRO, CSIRO, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, CSIRO, Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, CSIRO, Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, CSIRO, Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - Land and Water, affiliation not provided to SSRN, CSIRO and University of Otago