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Pei Kuang

University of Macau

P.O. Box 3001

Macau

  • University of Macau

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

23

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2,843

TOTAL CITATIONS

37

Scholarly Papers (23)

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1.

Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets

Number of pages: 48 Posted: 11 Apr 2010
Pei Kuang, Michael Schröder and Qingwei Wang
University of Macau, affiliation not provided to SSRN and Cardiff University - Cardiff Business School
Downloads 716 (89,693)
Citation 2

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Foreign Exchange, Technical Trading, Data Snooping, Emerging Market

2.

Macroprudential Policy and Housing Market Expectations

Number of pages: 82 Posted: 13 May 2023 Last Revised: 13 Aug 2025
Pei Kuang, Kaushik Mitra, Li Tang and Shihan Xie
University of Macau, University of Birmingham, University of Birmingham and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics
Downloads 543 (127,842)
Citation 4

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Macroprudential policy, House price, Expectation, Affordability

3.

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

Downloads 278 (283,835)

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 24 Feb 2025
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan Xie
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics
Downloads 140 (555,883)

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Partisan, Trust, Expectations, Central Bank Communication

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

Fama-Miller Working Paper, Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 25-04
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 03 Mar 2025 Last Revised: 24 Apr 2025
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan Xie
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics
Downloads 87 (767,205)

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Partisan, Trust, Expectations, Central Bank Communication

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

CESifo Working Paper No. 11708
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 07 Mar 2025
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan Xie
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics
Downloads 28 (1,400,723)

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central bank communication, partisan, trust, expectations

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

NBER Working Paper No. w33524
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 04 Mar 2025
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan shihan.xie@gmail.com
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Downloads 23 (1,459,262)
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4.

Are Survey Stock Price Forecasts Anchored by Fundamental Forecasts? A Long-run Perspective *

Economic Theory, volume 79, issue 2, 2025[10.1007/s00199-024-01597-2]
Number of pages: 93 Posted: 23 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2025
Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang
University of Macau, University of Birmingham, Shandong University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Downloads 178 (426,635)

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Survey expectation, Asset pricing, Cointegration JEL classifications: D84, G12, G17

5.

Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 22 Oct 2024 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2024
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan Xie
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics
Downloads 161 (477,517)

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Trust, Intergroup Preferences, Expectation, Central Bank Communication

6.

Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, volume 200, 2022[10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.002]
Number of pages: 80 Posted: 23 Jun 2020 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2025
Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang
University of Macau, University of Birmingham, Shandong University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Downloads 112 (630,858)
Citation 10

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Survey expectation, Cointegration, Disagreement

7.

Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge 

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 23 Aug 2024
Pei Kuang, Kaushik Mitra and Li Tang
University of Macau, University of Birmingham and University of Birmingham
Downloads 102 (704,534)

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Detrending, Monetary policy, Expectations, Learning, Inflation, Welfare JEL classification: C18

8.

A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 26 Jun 2014
Pei Kuang
University of Macau
Downloads 96 (720,278)

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Boom-Bust, Collateral Constraints, Learning, Leverage, Housing

9.

Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours 

Number of pages: 86 Posted: 03 Jun 2025
Pei Kuang, Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei
University of Macau, University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy and University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy
Downloads 92 (742,061)

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Political Polarisation, Brexit, Expectations, Spending Intentions

10.

Divided We Stand: Brexit and the Polarisation of Britain's Household Economic Expectations and Behaviours 

Number of pages: 72 Posted: 19 May 2025
Pei Kuang, Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei
University of Macau, London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Geography and Environment and University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy
Downloads 89 (753,595)

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Political Polarisation, Brexit, Expectations, Spending Intentions

11.

Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

Number of pages: 102 Posted: 20 Jun 2025
Pei Kuang, Carola Binder and Li Tang
University of Macau, University of Texas at Austin and University of Reading
Downloads 80 (837,727)

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House Price Expectations, Central Bank Communication, Interest Rates, Randomized Controlled Trial, Non-verbal Communication

12.

New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 04 Jun 2020
Pei Kuang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang
University of Macau, Shandong University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Downloads 79 (809,932)

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Survey Expectation, Learning, RE, Bayesian RE

13.

House Price Booms and the Current Account

NBER Working Paper No. w17224
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 19 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2023
Klaus Adam, Pei Kuang and Albert Marcet
University of Mannheim, University of Macau and London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)
Downloads 65 (942,565)
Citation 15

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14.

Belief Disagreement, Instability, and Uncertainty under Stochastic Recall

Number of pages: 94 Posted: 30 Mar 2026 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2026
Pei Kuang, Li Tang and Michael Weber
University of Macau, University of Birmingham and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Downloads 51 (1,249,711)

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Belief Disagreement, Belief Instability, Ambivalence, Subjective Uncertainty, Contextual Cues

15.

Net Zero and Inflation Expectations: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 16 Apr 2026
Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Yao Yao and Yuteng Zhang
University of Macau, University of Birmingham, University of Birmingham and University of Birmingham
Downloads 40 (1,345,526)

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Green Transition, Inflation Expectations, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy

16.

Sovereign Debt Pricing with Shifting Long-Run Growth Expectations

European Economic Review, volume 186, 2026[10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105310]
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 Jan 2026 Last Revised: 12 May 2026
Pei Kuang and Liang Shi
University of Macau and University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
Downloads 37 (1,236,159)

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Long-Run Growth Expectation, Learning, Long-Term Debts, European Debt Crises

17.

Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. w31232
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 May 2023 Last Revised: 29 May 2023
Carola Binder, Pei Kuang and Li Tang
The University of Texas at Austin, TX, USA, University of Macau and University of Birmingham
Downloads 29 (1,332,057)
Citation 5

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18.

Remembered Performance: Electoral Accountability under Stochastic Recall

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 15 Apr 2026
Pei Kuang and Li Tang
University of Macau and University of Birmingham
Downloads 28 (1,470,786)

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Electoral Accountability, Stochastic Recall, Retrospective Voting, Imperfect Memory

19.

Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Sep 2024
Pei Kuang and Kaushik Mitra
University of Macau and University of Birmingham
Downloads 27 (1,372,601)
Citation 1

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Structural fiscal balance, learning, debt brake, pessimism, potential output

20.

Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve

NBER Working Paper No. w33071
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 29 Oct 2024
Pei Kuang, Michael Weber and Shihan shihan.xie@gmail.com
University of Macau, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Downloads 26 (1,385,945)

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21.

Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and The Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours

Number of pages: 87 Posted: 19 Jun 2025
Pei Kuang, Davide Luca and Zhiwu Wei
University of Macau, University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy and University of Cambridge - Department of Land Economy
Downloads 13 (1,548,648)

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Political polarisation, Brexit, Expectations, Spending intentions, Housing transactions

22.

Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

NBER Working Paper No. w35090
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 21 Apr 2026
Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos, Pei Kuang and Li Tang
University of Texas at Austin, European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research, University of Macau and University of Reading
Downloads 1 (1,590,289)
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23.

Do Stock Price Forecasts Reflect Fundamental Forecasts: A Long-Run Perspective

Posted: 16 Nov 2022 Last Revised: 28 Oct 2024
Pei Kuang, Li Tang, Renbin Zhang and Tongbin Zhang
University of Macau, University of Birmingham, Shandong University and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

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Survey expectation, asset pricing, Cointegration