affiliation not provided to SSRN, National Meteorological Administration, University of Leicester, Mykolas Romeris University, University of Leicester, National Research Council of Italy, National Meteorological Administration, affiliation not provided to SSRN, National Research Council of Italy, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Met Office, Mykolas Romeris University, University of South-Eastern Norway USN School of Business, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Exeter, affiliation not provided to SSRN, National Meteorological Administration, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, Mykolas Romeris University, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, affiliation not provided to SSRN, University of Exeter, affiliation not provided to SSRN and National Meteorological Administration