Jonas Dovern

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

11

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Top 15,757

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Scholarly Papers (11)

1.

The Long-Term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What has Changed Since the Great Recession?

ECB Working Paper No. 1999
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 03 Feb 2017
Jonas Dovern and Geoff Kenny
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 61 (347,729)

Abstract:

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inflation expectations, density forecasts, ECB, euro area

2.

Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 787
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 06 May 2008
Jonas Dovern and Ulrich Fritsche
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)
Downloads 44 (402,290)

Abstract:

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Survey data, dispersion, disagreement, fixed event forecasts

3.

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

ECB Working Paper No. 930
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 05 Nov 2008
Deutsche Bundesbank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 42 (409,576)

Abstract:

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Inflation expectations, sticky information, Phillips curve, inflation persistence

4.

Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries

ECB Working Paper No. 1082
Number of pages: 70 Posted: 27 Aug 2009
Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche and Jiri Slacalek
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 40 (417,092)

Abstract:

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disagreement, survey expectations, monetary policy, forecasting

5.

Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid

Kyklos, Vol. 60, No. 3, pp. 359-383, August 2007
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 20 Jul 2007
Jonas Dovern and Peter Nunnenkamp
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and University of Kiel
Downloads 18 (523,979)
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6.

Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

IMF Working Paper No. 14/31
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 11 Mar 2014
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 16 (535,382)

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Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Developed countries, Emerging markets, Forecasting models, Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, economic statistics, regression analysis, macroeconomic forecasting, dynamic models, panel regressions

7.

Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel

IMF Working Paper No. 13/56
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Mar 2013
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 16 (535,382)

Abstract:

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8.

Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 7023
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 12 Jul 2018
Jonas Dovern and Hans Manner
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Heidelberg University - Alfred Weber Institute for Economics
Downloads 11 (565,015)

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Density Calibration, Goodness-of-Fit Test, Predictive Density, Rosenblatt Transformation

9.

What Macroeconomic Shocks Affect the German Banking System? Analysis in an Integrated Micro-Macro Model

Bundesbank Series 2 Discussion Paper No. 2009,15
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 08 Jun 2016
Sven Blank and Jonas Dovern
Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre and Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Downloads 8 (583,336)

Abstract:

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VAR, banking sector stability, sign restriction approach

10.

European Inflation Expectations Dynamics

Bundesbank Series 1 Discussion Paper No. 2005,37
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 08 Jun 2016
Deutsche Bundesbank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and European Central Bank (ECB)
Downloads 5 (602,294)

Abstract:

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Inflation, expectations, sticky information, inflation persistence

11.

Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions - Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Conditions

Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 4, 2008
Posted: 18 Nov 2008 Last Revised: 20 Nov 2008
Jonas Dovern and Christina Ziegler
Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Abstract:

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leading indicators, forecasting, recessions