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oil demand shocks, oil supply shocks, business cycle, Bayesian econometrics
oil futures, partial identification, macroeconomic shocks
forecasting, oil futures, risk premia, Bayesian VAR models
Investment, micro data, panel regression, hurdle rates, cost of capital, uncertainty
Bayesian estimation, business cycle, forecasting, financial conditions, real-time data, unobserved components model
FAVAR; inflation; macroeconomic shocks; sign restrictions
macroeconomic shocks, oil markets, sign restrictions, vector autoregression
usiness cycle, micro data, vector autoregression, sign restrictions, time-varying parameters
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