Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

54

DOWNLOADS
Rank 8,222

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 8,222

in Total Papers Downloads

5,424

CITATIONS
Rank 416

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 416

in Total Papers Citations

601

Scholarly Papers (54)

1.

Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w0945
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2010
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 849 (27,005)
Citation 197

Abstract:

Loading...

2.

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. R1380
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jun 2004
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 620 (41,438)
Citation 153

Abstract:

Loading...

3.

How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform during the 2001 Recession?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 89, No. 3, Summer 2003, pp. 71-90
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Dec 2012
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 477 (58,020)
Citation 13

Abstract:

Loading...

4.

Forecasting Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w7023
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 13 Apr 1999 Last Revised: 12 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 227 (132,910)
Citation 332

Abstract:

Loading...

5.

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16150
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 07 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2010
Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. - Global Markets Research, Economy, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, New York University - Stern School of Business - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 217 (138,821)
Citation 26

Abstract:

Loading...

6.

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6528
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 24 Jul 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 193 (154,999)
Citation 67

Abstract:

Loading...

7.

A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience

NBER Working Paper No. w4014
Number of pages: 81 Posted: 02 Feb 2001
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 169 (174,549)
Citation 17

Abstract:

Loading...

8.

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?

NBER Working Paper No. w9127
Number of pages: 80 Posted: 30 Aug 2002
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 165 (178,169)
Citation 383

Abstract:

Loading...

9.

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w11467
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2005
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 158 (184,837)
Citation 84

Abstract:

Loading...

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

IGIER Working Paper No. 285
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Apr 2005
European University Institute, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 133 (213,384)
Citation 13

Abstract:

Loading...

Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4976
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Aug 2005
European University Institute, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 15 (564,812)
Citation 141
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...

Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

11.
Downloads 144 (199,549)
Citation 13

Testing Long-Run Neutrality

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 83, No. 3, Summer 1997, pp. 69-101
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 19 Nov 2012
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 80 (304,089)
Citation 27

Abstract:

Loading...

Testing Long Run Neutrality

NBER Working Paper No. w4156
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 04 Jul 2004
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 64 (345,317)

Abstract:

Loading...

12.

Diffusion Indexes

NBER Working Paper No. w6702
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 138 (206,522)
Citation 5

Abstract:

Loading...

13.

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w14322
Number of pages: 84 Posted: 15 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 21 Aug 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 128 (219,246)
Citation 35

Abstract:

Loading...

14.

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

NBER Working Paper No. w8180
Number of pages: 112 Posted: 24 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 07 Dec 2001
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 116 (236,059)
Citation 343

Abstract:

Loading...

15.

A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. w2772
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 113 (240,484)
Citation 124

Abstract:

Loading...

16.

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

NBER Working Paper No. w12324
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 14 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Sep 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 101 (260,096)
Citation 345

Abstract:

Loading...

17.

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6607
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 05 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 98 (265,337)
Citation 71

Abstract:

Loading...

18.

Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality

NBER Working Paper No. w2228
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Feb 2007 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 89 (282,209)
Citation 44

Abstract:

Loading...

19.

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

NBER Working Paper No. t0323
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 29 Jun 2006 Last Revised: 12 Mar 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 76 (310,506)
Citation 72

Abstract:

Loading...

20.

Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2229
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
Boston University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 74 (315,311)
Citation 232

Abstract:

Loading...

21.

Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s

NBER Working Paper No. w8320
Number of pages: 87 Posted: 07 Jun 2001 Last Revised: 22 Oct 2010
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 71 (322,618)
Citation 30

Abstract:

Loading...

22.

Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession

NBER Working Paper No. w18094
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 May 2012
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 62 (346,424)
Citation 189

Abstract:

Loading...

23.

Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

NBER Working Paper No. w20324
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 28 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2014
Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 60 (352,145)
Citation 11

Abstract:

Loading...

24.

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w9859
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 23 Jul 2003
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 58 (358,037)
Citation 189

Abstract:

Loading...

25.

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

NBER Working Paper No. t0164
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 26 Aug 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 57 (361,095)
Citation 48

Abstract:

Loading...

26.

Are Business Cycles All Alike?

NBER Working Paper No. w1392
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Apr 2004
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 56 (364,135)
Citation 99

Abstract:

Loading...

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

NBER Working Paper No. w14389
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2013
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 36 (444,946)

Abstract:

Loading...

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 08-07
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 11 Dec 2012
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 19 (539,002)
Citation 108

Abstract:

Loading...

input-output matrix, Great Moderation, approximate factor model

28.

How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 93, no. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 143-161
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 09 Dec 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 51 (380,017)
Citation 16

Abstract:

Loading...

29.

Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors

NBER Working Paper No. t0269
Number of pages: 156 Posted: 23 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 28 Sep 2010
Thomas Knox, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard Business School, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 49 (386,647)
Citation 79

Abstract:

Loading...

30.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

NBER Working Paper No. w23543
Number of pages: 63 Posted: 26 Jun 2017
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Hoover Institution and Department of Economics, Stanford University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 43 (407,845)
Citation 27

Abstract:

Loading...

31.

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

NBER Working Paper No. w5477
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 26 Jun 1998 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2000
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 42 (411,501)
Citation 27

Abstract:

Loading...

32.

Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets

NBER Working Paper No. w16532
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Nov 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 39 (422,849)
Citation 20

Abstract:

Loading...

33.

Modeling Inflation after the Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16488
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 25 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 39 (422,849)
Citation 46

Abstract:

Loading...

34.

Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988

NBER Working Paper No. w3376
Number of pages: 110 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 05 Jan 2002
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 38 (426,953)
Citation 24

Abstract:

Loading...

35.

Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model

NBER Working Paper No. t0201
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 33 (447,545)
Citation 30

Abstract:

Loading...

36.

Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w4005
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 29 Dec 2006
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 32 (451,959)
Citation 43

Abstract:

Loading...

37.

Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability

NBER Working Paper No. w12671
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2010
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 31 (456,654)
Citation 13

Abstract:

Loading...

38.

A Simple Mle of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems

NBER Working Paper No. t0083
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 30 (461,328)
Citation 509

Abstract:

Loading...

39.

Explaining the Increased Variability in Long-Term Interest Rates

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 85, no. 4, Fall 1999, pp. 71-96
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 26 Nov 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 28 (471,028)
Citation 13

Abstract:

Loading...

Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation

NBER Working Paper No. w13615
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 27 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 03 Oct 2010
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 22 (519,909)
Citation 29

Abstract:

Loading...

Relative Goods' Prices and Pure Inflation

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6593
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 06 Jun 2008
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 5 (633,146)
Citation 2
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...

Dynamic Factor Models, Inflation, Phillips relation, Relative prices

41.

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known

NBER Working Paper No. t0171
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Jun 2000
Michael T. K. Horvath and Mark W. Watson
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 27 (476,133)

Abstract:

Loading...

42.

Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

NBER Working Paper No. w1133
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
Jerry A. Hausman and Mark W. Watson
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 25 (486,855)

Abstract:

Loading...

43.

Long-Run Covariability

NBER Working Paper No. w23186
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 21 Feb 2017
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 23 (497,826)
Citation 3

Abstract:

Loading...

44.

Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors

NBER Working Paper No. t0165
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 26 Aug 2000
Eugene Canjels and Mark W. Watson
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu - Washington, D.C. Office and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 23 (497,826)
Citation 22

Abstract:

Loading...

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

NBER Working Paper No. w24216
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 22 Jan 2018
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 21 (526,282)
Citation 28
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

The Economic Journal, Vol. 128, Issue 610, pp. 917-948, 2018
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 May 2018
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 0
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...

46.

Low-Frequency Econometrics

NBER Working Paper No. w21564
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 21 Sep 2015
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 21 (509,267)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

47.

Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing

NBER Working Paper No. w15292
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 02 Oct 2009
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 18 (526,610)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

48.

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2589
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 02 Aug 2010
Matthew D. Shapiro and Mark W. Watson
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 17 (532,363)
Citation 139

Abstract:

Loading...

49.

Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction

NBER Working Paper No. w18870
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Mar 2013
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 13 (555,841)
Citation 2

Abstract:

Loading...

50.

Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0102
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jun 2007
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 12 (561,932)
Citation 66

Abstract:

Loading...

51.

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w21282
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Jun 2015
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 11 (568,049)
Citation 13

Abstract:

Loading...

52.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 19-11
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 31 May 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2019
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 7 (599,362)

Abstract:

Loading...

trend growth, multi-sector model, production linkages

53.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

NBER Working Paper No. w25867
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 28 May 2019
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 3 (620,718)
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...

54.

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w25987
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 26 Jun 2019
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 2 (630,635)
  • Add to Cart

Abstract:

Loading...