Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

55

DOWNLOADS
Rank 10,175

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 10,175

in Total Papers Downloads

9,713

TOTAL CITATIONS
Rank 144

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 144

in Total Papers Citations

1,347

Scholarly Papers (55)

1.

Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w0945
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2022
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 1,779 (21,014)
Citation 25

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2.

How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform during the 2001 Recession?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 89, No. 3, Summer 2003, pp. 71-90
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Dec 2012
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 924 (54,889)
Citation 1

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3.

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jun 2004
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 757 (71,648)
Citation 36

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4.

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16150
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 07 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 17 Feb 2023
Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. - Global Markets Research, Economy, Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance, New York University - Stern School of Business - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 366 (173,883)
Citation 10

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5.

Forecasting Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w7023
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 13 Apr 1999 Last Revised: 11 Sep 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 363 (175,429)
Citation 49

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A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

IGIER Working Paper No. 285
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Apr 2005
Bocconi University - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 275 (234,378)
Citation 23

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Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4976
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Aug 2005
Bocconi University - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 50 (847,519)
Citation 22
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Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

7.

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6528
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 24 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 286 (226,724)
Citation 10

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8.

Diffusion Indexes

NBER Working Paper No. w6702
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 283 (229,194)

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9.

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w11467
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2005 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 248 (262,044)
Citation 35

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10.
Downloads 233 (278,603)
Citation 18

Testing Long-Run Neutrality

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 83, No. 3, Summer 1997, pp. 69-101
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 19 Nov 2012
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 136 (449,964)
Citation 18

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Testing Long Run Neutrality

NBER Working Paper No. w4156
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2022
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 97 (584,283)

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11.

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w14322
Number of pages: 84 Posted: 15 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 21 Aug 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 224 (289,408)
Citation 18

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12.

A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience

NBER Working Paper No. w4014
Number of pages: 81 Posted: 02 Feb 2001 Last Revised: 22 Dec 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 214 (302,268)
Citation 9

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13.

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?

NBER Working Paper No. w9127
Number of pages: 80 Posted: 30 Aug 2002 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 211 (306,361)
Citation 79

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14.

A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. w2772
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 203 (319,211)
Citation 10

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15.

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

NBER Working Paper No. w8180
Number of pages: 112 Posted: 24 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 09 Nov 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 167 (378,913)
Citation 59

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16.

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

NBER Working Paper No. w12324
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 14 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 150 (415,029)
Citation 225

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17.

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6607
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 05 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 23 Jul 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 147 (421,801)
Citation 2

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Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation

NBER Working Paper No. w13615
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 27 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2022
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 122 (491,492)
Citation 14

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Relative Goods' Prices and Pure Inflation

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6593
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 06 Jun 2008
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 6 (1,339,959)
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Dynamic Factor Models, Inflation, Phillips relation, Relative prices

19.

Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2229
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 06 Aug 2022
Boston University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 128 (471,111)
Citation 19

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20.

Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality

NBER Working Paper No. w2228
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Feb 2007 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 118 (501,819)
Citation 6

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21.

Are Business Cycles All Alike?

NBER Working Paper No. w1392
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 117 (505,071)
Citation 16

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Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 08-07
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 11 Dec 2012
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 64 (748,132)
Citation 58

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input-output matrix, Great Moderation, approximate factor model

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

NBER Working Paper No. w14389
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 27 Oct 2022
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 52 (831,564)

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23.

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

NBER Working Paper No. t0323
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 29 Jun 2006 Last Revised: 02 Jan 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 116 (508,339)
Citation 34

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24.

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2589
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 02 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2022
Matthew D. Shapiro and Mark W. Watson
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 107 (540,013)
Citation 7

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25.

Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession

NBER Working Paper No. w18094
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 May 2012 Last Revised: 11 Jun 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 106 (543,736)
Citation 46

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26.

Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors

NBER Working Paper No. t0269
Number of pages: 156 Posted: 23 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2023
Thomas Knox, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard Business School, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 105 (547,524)
Citation 27

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27.

Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

NBER Working Paper No. w20324
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 28 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 15 Jul 2023
Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 102 (559,286)
Citation 14

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28.

Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

NBER Working Paper No. w1133
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2022
Jerry A. Hausman and Mark W. Watson
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 96 (582,521)

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29.

How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 93, no. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 143-161
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 09 Dec 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 95 (586,429)
Citation 2

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30.

Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s

NBER Working Paper No. w8320
Number of pages: 87 Posted: 07 Jun 2001 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2022
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 95 (586,429)
Citation 4

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31.

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w9859
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 23 Jul 2003 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 93 (594,541)
Citation 29

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32.

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

NBER Working Paper No. t0164
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 26 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 86 (623,875)
Citation 12

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33.

Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets

NBER Working Paper No. w16532
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Nov 2010 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 80 (650,985)
Citation 18

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34.

Modeling Inflation after the Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16488
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 25 Oct 2010 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 80 (650,985)
Citation 11

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35.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

NBER Working Paper No. w23543
Number of pages: 63 Posted: 26 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 01 May 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Hoover Institution and Department of Economics, Stanford University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 74 (679,928)
Citation 47

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36.

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w21282
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 73 (685,123)
Citation 50

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37.

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

NBER Working Paper No. w5477
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 26 Jun 1998 Last Revised: 21 Dec 2022
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 71 (695,664)
Citation 17

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38.

Explaining the Increased Variability in Long-Term Interest Rates

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 85, no. 4, Fall 1999, pp. 71-96
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 26 Nov 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 64 (734,895)
Citation 4

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39.

Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988

NBER Working Paper No. w3376
Number of pages: 110 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 24 Sep 2022
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 64 (734,895)
Citation 56

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40.

Low-Frequency Econometrics

NBER Working Paper No. w21564
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 21 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 04 Jun 2023
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 62 (747,014)
Citation 7

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41.

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w25987
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 26 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 05 Jul 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 60 (759,367)
Citation 35

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42.

A Simple Mle of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems

NBER Working Paper No. t0083
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 59 (765,754)
Citation 61

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43.

Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model

NBER Working Paper No. t0201
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 58 (772,261)
Citation 7

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44.

Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w4005
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 29 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 12 Dec 2022
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 55 (792,564)
Citation 3

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45.

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

NBER Working Paper No. w24216
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 22 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 03 Mar 2023
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 51 (821,509)
Citation 82

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46.

Long-Run Covariability

NBER Working Paper No. w23186
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 21 Feb 2017 Last Revised: 10 May 2023
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 50 (829,155)
Citation 6

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47.

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known

NBER Working Paper No. t0171
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2023
Michael T. K. Horvath and Mark W. Watson
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 46 (860,919)

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48.

Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability

NBER Working Paper No. w12671
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2022
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 45 (869,375)
Citation 10

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49.

Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0102
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2023
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 43 (886,509)

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50.

Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors

NBER Working Paper No. t0165
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 26 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2023
Eugene Canjels and Mark W. Watson
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu - Washington, D.C. Office and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 43 (886,509)

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51.

Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing

NBER Working Paper No. w15292
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2023
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 39 (922,698)

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52.

Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction

NBER Working Paper No. w18870
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2023
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 33 (982,235)
Citation 3

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53.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 19-11
Number of pages: 57 Posted: 31 May 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2019
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 29 (1,025,460)
Citation 9

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trend growth, multisector models, production linkages

54.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

NBER Working Paper No. w25867
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 28 May 2019 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2023
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 27 (1,048,450)

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55.

An Econometric Model of International Long-Run Growth Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w26593
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 01 Mar 2023
Ulrich Müller, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 19 (1,146,407)
Citation 2

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