Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021

United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

United States

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

51

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5,280

CITATIONS
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Top 56

in Total Papers Citations

3,451

Scholarly Papers (51)

1.

Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w0945
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2010
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 844 (26,830)
Citation 133

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2.

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. R1380
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jun 2004
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 602 (42,343)
Citation 268

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3.

How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform during the 2001 Recession?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 89, No. 3, Summer 2003, pp. 71-90
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Dec 2012
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 460 (59,680)
Citation 16

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4.

Forecasting Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w7023
Number of pages: 46 Posted: 13 Apr 1999 Last Revised: 12 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 225 (131,994)
Citation 213

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5.

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16150
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 07 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2010
Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. - Global Markets Research, Economy, Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics, New York University - Stern School of Business - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 213 (139,102)
Citation 16

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6.

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6528
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 24 Jul 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 192 (153,332)
Citation 173

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7.

A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience

NBER Working Paper No. w4014
Number of pages: 81 Posted: 02 Feb 2001
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 168 (172,768)
Citation 41

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8.

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?

NBER Working Paper No. w9127
Number of pages: 80 Posted: 30 Aug 2002
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 163 (177,277)
Citation 371

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9.

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w11467
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2005
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 157 (183,071)
Citation 101

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A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

IGIER Working Paper No. 285
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Apr 2005
European University Institute, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 132 (211,527)
Citation 56

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Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4976
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Aug 2005
European University Institute, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 15 (555,926)
Citation 56
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Multistep forecasts, VAR forecasts, forecast comparisons

11.
Downloads 142 (198,846)
Citation 36

Testing Long-Run Neutrality

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 83, No. 3, Summer 1997, pp. 69-101
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 19 Nov 2012
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 79 (301,929)
Citation 36

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Testing Long Run Neutrality

NBER Working Paper No. w4156
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 04 Jul 2004
Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson
Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 63 (343,225)
Citation 36

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12.

Diffusion Indexes

NBER Working Paper No. w6702
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 135 (207,044)
Citation 94

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13.

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w14322
Number of pages: 84 Posted: 15 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 21 Aug 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 119 (230,994)
Citation 31

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14.

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

NBER Working Paper No. w8180
Number of pages: 112 Posted: 24 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 07 Dec 2001
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 115 (233,896)
Citation 212

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15.

A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. w2772
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 108 (244,651)
Citation 90

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16.

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

NBER Working Paper No. w12324
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 14 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Sep 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 99 (259,821)
Citation 147

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17.

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6607
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 05 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 10 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 97 (263,269)
Citation 79

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18.

Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality

NBER Working Paper No. w2228
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Feb 2007 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 87 (282,101)
Citation 41

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19.

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

NBER Working Paper No. t0323
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 29 Jun 2006 Last Revised: 12 Mar 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 75 (308,278)
Citation 23

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20.

Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2229
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
Boston University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 71 (317,960)
Citation 198

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21.

Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s

NBER Working Paper No. w8320
Number of pages: 87 Posted: 07 Jun 2001 Last Revised: 22 Oct 2010
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 70 (320,429)
Citation 64

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22.

Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession

NBER Working Paper No. w18094
Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 May 2012
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 61 (344,211)
Citation 10

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23.

Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

NBER Working Paper No. w20324
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 28 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2014
Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 59 (349,828)

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24.

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w9859
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 23 Jul 2003
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 57 (355,863)
Citation 125

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25.

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

NBER Working Paper No. t0164
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 26 Aug 2000
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 56 (358,904)
Citation 119

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26.

Are Business Cycles All Alike?

NBER Working Paper No. w1392
Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Apr 2004
Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 55 (362,008)
Citation 79

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Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

NBER Working Paper No. w14389
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2013
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 35 (442,717)
Citation 12

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Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 08-07
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 11 Dec 2012
Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 18 (536,891)
Citation 12

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input-output matrix, Great Moderation, approximate factor model

28.

How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 93, no. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 143-161
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 09 Dec 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 50 (377,741)
Citation 10

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29.

Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors

NBER Working Paper No. t0269
Number of pages: 156 Posted: 23 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 28 Sep 2010
Thomas Knox, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard Business School, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 48 (384,352)
Citation 4

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30.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

NBER Working Paper No. w23543
Number of pages: 63 Posted: 26 Jun 2017
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Hoover Institution and Department of Economics, Stanford University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 42 (405,297)
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31.

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

NBER Working Paper No. w5477
Number of pages: 58 Posted: 26 Jun 1998 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2000
Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 38 (420,609)
Citation 75

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32.

Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets

NBER Working Paper No. w16532
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Nov 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 37 (424,600)
Citation 1

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33.

Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988

NBER Working Paper No. w3376
Number of pages: 110 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 05 Jan 2002
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 37 (424,600)
Citation 6

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34.

Modeling Inflation after the Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16488
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 25 Oct 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 36 (428,665)
Citation 10

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35.

Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w4005
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 29 Dec 2006
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 31 (449,787)
Citation 36

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36.

Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model

NBER Working Paper No. t0201
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 31 (449,787)
Citation 47

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37.

Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability

NBER Working Paper No. w12671
Number of pages: 53 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2010
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 29 (459,104)
Citation 9

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38.

A Simple Mle of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems

NBER Working Paper No. t0083
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 25 Sep 2010
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 29 (459,104)
Citation 255

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39.

Explaining the Increased Variability in Long-Term Interest Rates

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 85, no. 4, Fall 1999, pp. 71-96
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 26 Nov 2012
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 27 (468,942)
Citation 19

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Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation

NBER Working Paper No. w13615
Number of pages: 60 Posted: 27 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 03 Oct 2010
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 21 (518,151)
Citation 13

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Relative Goods' Prices and Pure Inflation

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6593
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 06 Jun 2008
Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 5 (620,934)
Citation 13
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Dynamic Factor Models, Inflation, Phillips relation, Relative prices

41.

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known

NBER Working Paper No. t0171
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Jun 2000
Michael T. K. Horvath and Mark W. Watson
affiliation not provided to SSRN and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 26 (474,084)
Citation 7

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42.

Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

NBER Working Paper No. w1133
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 08 Aug 2010
Jerry A. Hausman and Mark W. Watson
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 23 (490,301)

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43.

Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors

NBER Working Paper No. t0165
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 26 Aug 2000
Eugene Canjels and Mark W. Watson
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu - Washington, D.C. Office and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 22 (495,898)
Citation 16

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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

NBER Working Paper No. w24216
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 22 Jan 2018
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 21 (518,151)
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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

The Economic Journal, Vol. 128, Issue 610, pp. 917-948, 2018
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 08 May 2018
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
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45.

Low-Frequency Econometrics

NBER Working Paper No. w21564
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 21 Sep 2015
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 20 (507,091)

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46.

Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing

NBER Working Paper No. w15292
Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 02 Oct 2009
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 16 (529,518)
Citation 2

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47.

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2589
Number of pages: 62 Posted: 02 Aug 2010
Matthew D. Shapiro and Mark W. Watson
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 15 (535,339)
Citation 126

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48.

Long-Run Covariability

NBER Working Paper No. w23186
Number of pages: 66 Posted: 21 Feb 2017
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 14 (541,042)

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49.

Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction

NBER Working Paper No. w18870
Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Mar 2013
Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 12 (552,674)

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50.

Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0102
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jun 2007
Mark W. Watson
Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 11 (558,484)
Citation 53

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51.

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w21282
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Jun 2015
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Downloads 9 (570,268)

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