Author Page for Mark W. Watson

Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets

NBER Working Paper No. w0945

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2022

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 1,779 (21,014)

Citation 25

Abstract:

2.

How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform during the 2001 Recession?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 89, No. 3, Summer 2003, pp. 71-90

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 05 Dec 2012

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 924 (54,889)

Citation 1

Abstract:

3.

New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

Number of pages: 44 Posted: 19 Jun 2004

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 757 (71,648)

Citation 36

Abstract:

4.

Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16150

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 07 Jul 2010 Last Revised: 17 Feb 2023

Jan Hatzius, Peter Hooper, Frederic S. Mishkin, Kermit L. Schoenholtz and Mark W. Watson

Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. - Global Markets Research, Economy, Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance, New York University - Stern School of Business - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 366 (173,883)

Citation 10

Abstract:

5.

Forecasting Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w7023

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 13 Apr 1999 Last Revised: 11 Sep 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 363 (175,429)

Citation 49

Abstract:

6.

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

Downloads 325 (197,826)

Citation 45

2

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

IGIER Working Paper No. 285

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 13 Apr 2005

Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Bocconi University - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 275 (234,378)

Citation 23

Abstract:

A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4976

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 01 Aug 2005

Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Bocconi University - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 50 (847,519)

Citation 22

Add to Cart

Abstract:

7.

Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6528

Number of pages: 83 Posted: 24 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 04 Nov 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 286 (226,724)

Citation 10

Abstract:

8.

Diffusion Indexes

NBER Working Paper No. w6702

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 283 (229,194)

Abstract:

9.

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

NBER Working Paper No. w11467

Number of pages: 67 Posted: 08 Aug 2005 Last Revised: 02 Nov 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 248 (262,044)

Citation 35

Abstract:

10.

Testing Long-Run Neutrality

Downloads 233 (278,603)

Citation 18

2

Testing Long-Run Neutrality

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 83, No. 3, Summer 1997, pp. 69-101

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 19 Nov 2012

Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson

Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 136 (449,964)

Citation 18

Abstract:

Testing Long Run Neutrality

NBER Working Paper No. w4156

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 11 Nov 2022

Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson

Boston University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 97 (584,283)

Abstract:

11.

Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w14322

Number of pages: 84 Posted: 15 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 21 Aug 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 224 (289,408)

Citation 18

Abstract:

12.

A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience

NBER Working Paper No. w4014

Number of pages: 81 Posted: 02 Feb 2001 Last Revised: 22 Dec 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 214 (302,268)

Citation 9

Abstract:

13.

Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?

NBER Working Paper No. w9127

Number of pages: 80 Posted: 30 Aug 2002 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 211 (306,361)

Citation 79

Abstract:

14.

A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators

NBER Working Paper No. w2772

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 203 (319,211)

Citation 10

Abstract:

15.

Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

NBER Working Paper No. w8180

Number of pages: 112 Posted: 24 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 09 Nov 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 167 (378,913)

Citation 59

Abstract:

16.

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

NBER Working Paper No. w12324

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 14 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 150 (415,029)

Citation 225

Abstract:

17.

A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

NBER Working Paper No. w6607

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 05 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 23 Jul 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 147 (421,801)

Citation 2

Abstract:

18.

Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation

Downloads 128 (471,111)

Citation 14

2

Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation

NBER Working Paper No. w13615

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 27 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2022

Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 122 (491,492)

Citation 14

Abstract:

Relative Goods' Prices and Pure Inflation

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6593

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 06 Jun 2008

Ricardo Reis and Mark W. Watson

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 6 (1,339,959)

Add to Cart

Abstract:

19.

Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2229

Number of pages: 60 Posted: 04 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 06 Aug 2022

Robert G. King, Charles I. Plosser, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Boston University - Department of Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 128 (471,111)

Citation 19

Abstract:

20.

Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality

NBER Working Paper No. w2228

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Feb 2007 Last Revised: 05 Aug 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 118 (501,819)

Citation 6

Abstract:

21.

Are Business Cycles All Alike?

NBER Working Paper No. w1392

Number of pages: 56 Posted: 04 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 26 Oct 2022

Olivier J. Blanchard and Mark W. Watson

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 117 (505,071)

Citation 16

Abstract:

22.

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

Downloads 116 (508,339)

Citation 58

2

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 08-07

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 11 Dec 2012

Andrew T. Foerster, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 64 (748,132)

Citation 58

Abstract:

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

NBER Working Paper No. w14389

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Oct 2008 Last Revised: 27 Oct 2022

Andrew T. Foerster, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 52 (831,564)

Abstract:

23.

Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

NBER Working Paper No. t0323

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 29 Jun 2006 Last Revised: 02 Jan 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 116 (508,339)

Citation 34

Abstract:

24.

Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

NBER Working Paper No. w2589

Number of pages: 62 Posted: 02 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 31 Jul 2022

Matthew D. Shapiro and Mark W. Watson

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 107 (540,013)

Citation 7

Abstract:

25.

Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession

NBER Working Paper No. w18094

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 19 May 2012 Last Revised: 11 Jun 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 106 (543,736)

Citation 46

Abstract:

26.

Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors

NBER Working Paper No. t0269

Number of pages: 156 Posted: 23 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2023

Thomas Knox, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard Business School, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 105 (547,524)

Citation 27

Abstract:

27.

Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration

NBER Working Paper No. w20324

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 28 Jul 2014 Last Revised: 15 Jul 2023

Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 102 (559,286)

Citation 14

Abstract:

28.

Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

NBER Working Paper No. w1133

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Jun 2004 Last Revised: 06 Feb 2022

Jerry A. Hausman and Mark W. Watson

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 96 (582,521)

Abstract:

29.

How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 93, no. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 143-161

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 09 Dec 2012

Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 95 (586,429)

Citation 2

Abstract:

30.

Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s

NBER Working Paper No. w8320

Number of pages: 87 Posted: 07 Jun 2001 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2022

Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 95 (586,429)

Citation 4

Abstract:

31.

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w9859

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 23 Jul 2003 Last Revised: 11 Dec 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 93 (594,541)

Citation 29

Abstract:

32.

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

NBER Working Paper No. t0164

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 26 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 15 Jun 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 86 (623,875)

Citation 12

Abstract:

33.

Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets

NBER Working Paper No. w16532

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 22 Nov 2010 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 80 (650,985)

Citation 18

Abstract:

34.

Modeling Inflation after the Crisis

NBER Working Paper No. w16488

Number of pages: 61 Posted: 25 Oct 2010 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 80 (650,985)

Citation 11

Abstract:

35.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

NBER Working Paper No. w23543

Number of pages: 63 Posted: 26 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 01 May 2022

John G. Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Hoover Institution and Department of Economics, Stanford University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 74 (679,928)

Citation 47

Abstract:

36.

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w21282

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 25 Feb 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 73 (685,123)

Citation 50

Abstract:

37.

How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

NBER Working Paper No. w5477

Number of pages: 58 Posted: 26 Jun 1998 Last Revised: 21 Dec 2022

Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 71 (695,664)

Citation 17

Abstract:

38.

Explaining the Increased Variability in Long-Term Interest Rates

FRB Richmond Economic Quarterly, vol. 85, no. 4, Fall 1999, pp. 71-96

Number of pages: 26 Posted: 26 Nov 2012

Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 64 (734,895)

Citation 4

Abstract:

39.

Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988

NBER Working Paper No. w3376

Number of pages: 110 Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last Revised: 24 Sep 2022

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 64 (734,895)

Citation 56

Abstract:

40.

Low-Frequency Econometrics

NBER Working Paper No. w21564

Number of pages: 47 Posted: 21 Sep 2015 Last Revised: 04 Jun 2023

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 62 (747,014)

Citation 7

Abstract:

41.

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w25987

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 26 Jun 2019 Last Revised: 05 Jul 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 60 (759,367)

Citation 35

Abstract:

42.

A Simple Mle of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems

NBER Working Paper No. t0083

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Mar 2004 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 59 (765,754)

Citation 61

Abstract:

43.

Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model

NBER Working Paper No. t0201

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jul 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 58 (772,261)

Citation 7

Abstract:

44.

Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w4005

Number of pages: 38 Posted: 29 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 12 Dec 2022

Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 55 (792,564)

Citation 3

Abstract:

45.

Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments

NBER Working Paper No. w24216

Number of pages: 51 Posted: 22 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 03 Mar 2023

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 51 (821,509)

Citation 82

Abstract:

46.

Long-Run Covariability

NBER Working Paper No. w23186

Number of pages: 66 Posted: 21 Feb 2017 Last Revised: 10 May 2023

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 50 (829,155)

Citation 6

Abstract:

47.

Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Contributing Vectors are Known

NBER Working Paper No. t0171

Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 Jun 2000 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2023

Michael T. K. Horvath and Mark W. Watson

affiliation not provided to SSRN and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 46 (860,919)

Abstract:

48.

Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability

NBER Working Paper No. w12671

Number of pages: 53 Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last Revised: 17 Aug 2022

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 45 (869,375)

Citation 10

Abstract:

49.

Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0102

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 14 Apr 2023

Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 43 (886,509)

Abstract:

50.

Estimating Deterministic Trends in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors

NBER Working Paper No. t0165

Number of pages: 41 Posted: 26 Aug 2000 Last Revised: 16 Jun 2023

Eugene Canjels and Mark W. Watson

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu - Washington, D.C. Office and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 43 (886,509)

Abstract:

51.

Low-Frequency Robust Cointegration Testing

NBER Working Paper No. w15292

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 15 Apr 2023

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 39 (922,698)

Abstract:

52.

Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction

NBER Working Paper No. w18870

Number of pages: 64 Posted: 09 Mar 2013 Last Revised: 24 Jul 2023

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 33 (982,235)

Citation 3

Abstract:

53.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

FRB Richmond Working Paper No. 19-11

Number of pages: 57 Posted: 31 May 2019 Last Revised: 01 Jun 2019

Andrew T. Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 29 (1,025,460)

Citation 9

Abstract:

54.

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

NBER Working Paper No. w25867

Number of pages: 55 Posted: 28 May 2019 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2023

Andrew T. Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 27 (1,048,450)

Abstract:

55.

An Econometric Model of International Long-Run Growth Dynamics

NBER Working Paper No. w26593

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 31 Dec 2019 Last Revised: 01 Mar 2023

Ulrich Müller, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Princeton University, Harvard University - Department of Economics and Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Downloads 19 (1,146,407)

Citation 2

Mark W. Watson

Princeton University - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep Ar Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

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Relative Goods' Prices and Pure Inflation

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