Yael Grushka-Cockayne

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business

P.O. Box 6550

Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550

United States

Harvard Business School

Soldiers Field Road

Morgan 270C

Boston, MA 02163

United States

http://https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=263650

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

40

DOWNLOADS
Rank 15,431

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 15,431

in Total Papers Downloads

3,030

CITATIONS

1

Scholarly Papers (40)

1.

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1926330
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2015
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 378 (75,845)

Abstract:

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forecasting competitions, strategic forecasting, expert opinion, averaging opinions, combining forecasts.

2.

Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 29 Mar 2019
Duke University - Fuqua School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 354 (81,905)

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3.

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2066806
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 25 May 2012 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 339 (86,135)

Abstract:

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probability forecasts, quantile forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pooling

4.

Incentives in a Stage-Gate Process

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1738531
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Jan 2011 Last Revised: 10 May 2013
Raul O. Chao, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 337 (86,690)
Citation 1

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Innovation; New Product Development; Principal-Agent Analysis; Search; Complex Performance Landscapes

5.

The Similarity Heuristic

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 16 Nov 2007 Last Revised: 29 Sep 2012
Daniel Read and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Warwick - Warwick Business School and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 333 (87,817)

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heuristics and biases, fast-and-frugal heuristics, similarity, representative design, base-rate neglect, Bayesian inference

6.

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2474438
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 03 Aug 2014 Last Revised: 19 Aug 2015
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond Jose and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 324 (90,626)

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wisdom of crowds; base-rate neglect; linear opinion pool; trimmed opinion pool; hit rate; calibration; random forest.

7.

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Management Science, Forthcoming, Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2175093
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 15 Nov 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2013
Victor Richmond Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 169 (172,827)

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trimming, probability forecasts, expert combination, linear opinion pool, underconfidence, overconfidence, scoring rules, wisdom of crowds, diversity

8.

Forecasting Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2805244
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 23 Mar 2019
Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 156 (184,982)

Abstract:

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demand forecasting; capacity planning; inventory management; new product adoption; skewed diffusions; quantile forecasts

9.

Forecasting Airport Transfer Passenger Flow Using Real-Time Data and Machine Learning

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last Revised: 08 May 2019
Xiaojia Guo, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
University College London - School of Management, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and UCL School of Management
Downloads 147 (194,373)

Abstract:

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quantile forecasts; regression tree; copula; passenger flow management; data-driven operations

10.

Perceived Repeated Risk and the Allais Paradox

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 1924547
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 09 Sep 2011
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 136 (206,936)

Abstract:

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expected utility theory, prospect theory, common ratio effect, nonlinear sensitivity to probabilities

11.

Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 09 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 07 Nov 2016
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 95 (268,286)

Abstract:

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quantile forecasts; forecast evaluation, probability elicitation, proper scoring rules, expert aggregation, expert combination

12.

The Effects of Mental Accounting on Project Performance

HEC Paris Research Paper No. MOSI-2018-1317
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 04 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2019
Manel Baucells, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Woonam Hwang
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and HEC Paris
Downloads 90 (277,677)

Abstract:

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project management, behavioral operations, mental accounting, planning fallacy, earned value analysis

13.

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

Number of pages: 32 Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last Revised: 01 Apr 2018
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business and Duke University - Fuqua School of Business
Downloads 57 (357,788)

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Forecast aggregation; linear opinion pool; generalized additive model; generalized linear model; stacking.

14.

Combining Prediction Intervals in the M4 Competition

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 14 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 10 Apr 2019
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Victor Richmond Jose
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and Georgetown University - McDonough School of Business
Downloads 53 (370,185)

Abstract:

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hit rates, interval combination methods, calibration, mean scaled interval score, interior trimming, overconfidence

15.

The Promise of Prediction Contests

Darden Business School Working Paper No. 2317477
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 30 Aug 2013
Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 44 (400,309)

Abstract:

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Forecast Aggregation, Forecasting Contests, Picking Contests, Public Knowledge Bias, Wisdom of Crowds

16.

Teegolf Company: To Exit or Not to Exit—Team 1

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0894
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 23 Apr 2018 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Nick Molloy
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia
Downloads 3 (612,191)
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Abstract:

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leveraged buyout analysis, discounted cash flow, negotiation

17.

A/B Testing at Vungle

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0821
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University College London
Downloads 2 (621,638)
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hypothesis testing, A/B test, horse race, paired t-test, parallel run, algorithm, eRPM, conversion rate

18.

Keep it Cool

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0898
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 19 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Aneesh Saxena and Nate McFarland
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 2 (621,638)
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A/B testing, hypothesis testing, social media, marketing, cost per click, advertising, ad campaign, interest group, entrepreneurship, energy efficiency, Facebook, Messenger, chatbot, consumer engagement, sustainable energy

19.

Lumi Juice: Concept to Store

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0845
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Hillary Nicole Lewis
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 2 (621,638)
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project management, entrepreneurship, operations management, interdependent variables, product launch, managing small business

20.

Roast, Grind, Brew, Kickstart

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0900
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 27 Aug 2018
Alexander Koes, Mathew Reiss and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Independent and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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entrepreneurship, marketing, new product launch, regression analysis, data science, Python, Excel, hypothesis testing

21.

Strategy at Yuhisai Koudoukan: Reading the Tea Leaves

Darden Case No. UVA-S-0303
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 18 Jul 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Thanh-Trang Hoang-Le, Will Baber and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Kyoto University, Kyoto University and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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Japan, teahouse, tea ceremony, tangible assets, intangible assets, external positioning, value chain, competitive environment, processes, people, systems, alignment

22.

Getting Rich on Crypto

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0897
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 19 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 08 Sep 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Charles Goelz, Davis Willingham and Shawn Le
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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cryptocurrency, bitcoin, portfolio management, private wealth management, portfolio returns, portfolio risk analysis, portfolio diversification, asset correlation, portfolio theory, gold

23.

Project Management and Transparency for Capital Projects

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0899
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 19 Jun 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Rachel McKlindon and Jess Cornell
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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project management, capital projects, accountability

24.

Teegolf Company: To Exit or Not to Exit—Team 2

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0895
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 23 Apr 2018 Last Revised: 25 May 2018
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Nick Molloy
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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Abstract:

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leveraged buyout analysis, discounted cash flow, negotiation

25.

UnbeLEAFable Snacks

Darden Case No. UVA-M-0911
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 16 Jan 2018
Nick King, John White, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Ronald T. Wilcox
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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entrepreneur, new business, venture, startup, career path, premium segment, luxury, high-end, mechanical turk, survey, focus group, snack, gummy, garden gummies, natural food, health food, pricing, conjoint analysis, customer segmentation

26.

Digiplex: Future-Ready Data Centers

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0880
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 10 Oct 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Gerry Yemen
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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network analysis, large scale projects, tasks, dependencies, durations, budget, risk register, actionable recommendations, international

27.

New York City Department of Parks and Recreation

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0815
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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Project management, capital projects, planning fallacy

28.

Surveying Professional Forecasters

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0805
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 1 (633,637)
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APE, absolute percentage error, nominal gdp, random judge

29.

Connecticut Avenue Securities: Sharing Data

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0903
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 19 Feb 2019
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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code, visualize data, test hypotheses, validate model results, Brier score, variable importance plot, AI

30.

Set in Stone

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0814
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 05 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Pascale Crama, Elizabeth Tang and Arup Banerjee
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, Singapore Management University - Lee Kong Chian School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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website design, process improvement, sales process

31.

Opening Casino Jack

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0827
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Andrew Green and Temple Fennell
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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advertising, distribution

32.

Healthcare.Gov (a)

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0836
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 02 Jun 2017 Last Revised: 01 Dec 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Brian Ward
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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health care, government, insurance, marketplace, exchange, law, bill, Affordable Care Act, ACA, medical, Health and Human Services, HHS, Medicare, Medicaid, Obama, Obamacare, federal

33.

Sunray's Photovoltaic Power Plant

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0837
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Georgios Mexis
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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Project planning, uncertain duration, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, correlation, construction

34.

Ocean's Dilemma

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0798
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Rohit Gupta
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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NPV, matrix

35.

Flex Technology

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0811
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Robert L. Carraway and Travis Sorenson
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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financial assessment, property rights, commercial value, disruptive technology, new product, venture capital

36.

Scoring Expert Forecasts

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0772
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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log scoring rule, Brier scoring rule, fractile, quantile, percentile, probability mass function, probability density function

37.

Fair Play at Chisholm University

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0789
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Jared D. Harris, Jenny Mead, Meera Shankar and John Adams
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business, University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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optimization, stakeholder framework, decision, linear and integer programming, role-play, Solver, qualitative and quantitative

38.

Pricemax

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0748
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 02 Jun 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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forecasting, guidance, ranges, distributions, EPS

39.

Toward a Single European Sky

Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0736
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 01 Jun 2017
Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Bert De Reyck
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
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multi-criteria decision analysis, multi-stakeholders, optimization

40.

Ballis's Benchmark (a)

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1621
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 May 2017
Kenneth C. Lichtendahl and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business and University of Virginia - Darden School of Business
Downloads 0 (651,128)
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persistence hot hand benchmark fund data filtering regression