João Tovar Jalles

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.

Washington, DC 20431

United States

Technical University of Lisbon (UTL) - Research Unit on Complexity and Economics (UECE)

Rua Miguel Lupi, 20

Lisboa, 1200-781

Portugal

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF)

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

46

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3,320

SSRN CITATIONS
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6

CROSSREF CITATIONS

42

Scholarly Papers (46)

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1.

EU Competition Policy: Some Real Case Applications

FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 521
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 26 Nov 2007
João Tovar Jalles
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 421 (70,101)

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2.

Empirical Applications of Neoclassical Growth Models the Fit of the Solow Augmented Growth Model

FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 520
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Nov 2007
João Tovar Jalles
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 334 (92,003)

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3.

Endogenous Growth Models: Jones vs. Romer the Path to a Fully-Fledged Dynamic Analysis

FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 522
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 26 Nov 2007
João Tovar Jalles
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 251 (124,580)

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4.

Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter: A Concise Review

FEUNL Working Paper No. 541
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 20 Nov 2009
João Tovar Jalles
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 249 (125,637)
Citation 3

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SUTSE, cointegration, ARIMA, smoothing, likelihood

5.

Growth and Productivity: The Role of Government Debt

Downloads 196 (158,353)
Citation 8

Growth and Productivity: The Role of Government Debt

Technical University of Lisbon Department of Economics Working Paper No. 13/2011/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 24 Jul 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 196 (158,210)
Citation 8

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government debt, crises, panel analysis

Growth and Productivity: The Role of Government Debt

International Review of Economics & Finance, Forthcoming
Posted: 24 Jun 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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government debt, crises, panel analysis

6.

Economic Performance and Government Size

ECB Working Paper No. 1399
Number of pages: 44 Posted: 30 Nov 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 172 (178,005)

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Growth, institutions, fiscal rules, pooled mean group, common correlated effects

7.

Revisiting Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Cointegration and Structural Breaks in OECD Countries

Downloads 151 (198,735)
Citation 5

Revisiting Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Cointegration and Structural Breaks in OECD Countries

ECB Working Paper No. 1465
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 05 Sep 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 120 (239,292)

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debt, primary balance, fiscal regimes, stationarity, breaks, causality, panel cointegration, FMOLS

Revisiting Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Cointegration and Structural Breaks in OECD Countries

ISEG Economics Working Paper No. 29/2012/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 25 Nov 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 31 (485,362)
Citation 9

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debt, primary balance, fiscal regimes, stationarity, breaks, causality, panel

8.

Fiscal Composition and Long-Term Growth

ECB Occasional Paper No. 1518
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 08 Mar 2013
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 97 (276,499)
Citation 1

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Budget deficit, budget decomposition, panel analysis, panel causality

9.

Causality for the Government Budget and Economic Growth

Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº WP07/2014/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 28 Apr 2014
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 96 (278,460)
Citation 1

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government expenditures, goverment revenues, panel causality, GMM

10.

Appraising Fiscal Reaction Functions

Downloads 79 (314,356)

Appraising Fiscal Reaction Functions

ISEG-UTL Economics Working Paper No. 23/2011/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 05 Nov 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 79 (317,410)

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fiscal regimes, Panel VAR, cross-sectional dependence

Appraising Fiscal Reaction Functions

Economics Bulletin, 2011, 31 (4), 3320-3330
Posted: 24 Jun 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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fiscal regimes, Panel VAR, cross-sectional dependence

11.

Twin Deficits Revisited: A Role for Fiscal Institutions?

REM Working Paper 031-2018
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Antonio Afonso, Florence Huart, João Tovar Jalles and Piotr Leszek Stanek
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management), Université de Lille I, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Cracow University of Economics
Downloads 76 (321,520)
Citation 2

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current account, fiscal balance, fiscal rules, panel data, system GMM

12.

The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU

REM Working Paper 067-2019
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Feb 2019
Antonio Afonso, João Tovar Jalles and Mina Kazemi
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and University of Lisbon - ISEG School of Economics and Management
Downloads 73 (328,944)

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sovereign yields, fiscal policy, monetary policy, event analysis, panel data

13.

Fiscal Volatility, Financial Crises and Growth

Downloads 70 (336,747)

Fiscal Volatility, Financial Crises and Growth

ISEG Economics Working Paper No. 06/2012/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 23 Feb 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 70 (340,618)

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growth, fiscal volatility, crises, panel analysis

Fiscal Volatility, Financial Crises and Growth

Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 19, No. 18, 2012
Posted: 24 Jun 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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growth, fiscal volatility, crises, panel analysis

14.

Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 10/2017/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 15 Jun 2017
Antonio Afonso, Florence Huart, João Tovar Jalles and Piotr Leszek Stanek
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management), Université de Lille I, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Cracow University of Economics
Downloads 68 (341,978)

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current account, exports, imports, net foreign assets, unit roots, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction, cross-sectional dependence

15.

Do Fiscal Rules Matter for Growth?

Downloads 63 (355,931)

Do Fiscal Rules Matter for Growth?

ISEG Department of Economics Working Paper No. 07/2012/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 23 Feb 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 63 (360,637)

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fiscal rules, growth, government size, panel analysis

Do Fiscal Rules Matter for Growth?

Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2013 (Forthcoming)
Posted: 24 Jun 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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fiscal rules, growth, government size, panel analysis

16.

Slow Recovery to Nowhere? A Sectoral View of Labor Markets in Advanced Economies

World Economic Outlook, September 2011
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 24 Dec 2011
Prakash Loungani, Su Wang, Laura Feiveson and João Tovar Jalles
International Monetary Fund (IMF), Department of Economics, M.I.T., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 60 (364,831)

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employment, productivity, middle-income jobs, inequality

17.

Sovereign Debt Effects and Composition: Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 03/2017/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 20 Jan 2017
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 57 (374,037)

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18.

Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence

REM Working Paper 020-2017
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 11 Dec 2017
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 55 (380,481)

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sovereign bonds, fiscal policy, non-conventional monetary policy, time-varying coefficients, panel data

19.

A Longer-Run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability

ISEG Working Paper No. 17
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Sep 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 52 (390,240)
Citation 3

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fiscal sustainability, government debt, unit roots, breaks, structural time series

20.

Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies

Technical University of Lisbon – ISEG, Working Paper No. 16/2011/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 18 Sep 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 51 (393,626)
Citation 1

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budgetary decomposition, panel analysis, causality, non-linearities, fiscal-rules

21.

Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations

Downloads 46 (411,049)

Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations

ISEG-UTL Economics Working Paper No. 22/2011/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 06 Nov 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 46 (418,710)

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fiscal episodes, panel data, logit

Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations

Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 22, No. 13, 2012
Posted: 24 Jun 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

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fiscal episodes, panel data, logit

22.

Euro Area Time Varying Fiscal Sustainability

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 13/2015/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 22 Sep 2015
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 43 (422,308)

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fiscal sustainability, causality, impulse response functions, time-varying coefficients, fiscal rules, logistic model

23.

The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 23/2016/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 14 Oct 2016
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 42 (426,051)

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debt, deflation, local projection, impulse response functions, GMM, recessions, expansions

24.

Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields' Determinants: A Time-Varying Approach

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 04/2016/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 08 Jan 2016
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 42 (426,051)

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volatility, fiscal policy, bond spreads, weighted least squares, time-varying coefficients

25.

Assessing Fiscal Episodes

ISEG Working Paper No. 15/2011/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 41 Posted: 17 Sep 2011
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 36 (450,598)
Citation 1

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fiscal consolidation, non-Keynesian effects, panel data, logit

26.

A Narrative Database of Major Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies

IMF Working Paper No. 18/19
Number of pages: 91 Posted: 08 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 21 Mar 2018
Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Bingjie Hu, João Tovar Jalles and Huy Le Nguyen
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 34 (459,243)

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Reform; Regulation; Product Market; Network Industries; Labor Market; Employment Protection; Unemployment insurance, Reform, Regulation, Product Market, Network Industries, Labor Market, Employment Protection, Unemployment insurance, Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation, Economics of Regulation, Institutions and Growth

27.

Do Fiscal Rules Lower Government Financing Costs?

REM Working Paper 015-2017
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 29 Nov 2017
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 34 (459,243)

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fiscal rules, sovereign yields, financing costs, impulse response functions, local projection

28.

The Fiscal-Growth Nexus

Technical University of Lisbon Department of Economics Working Paper No. 01/2012/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 13 Feb 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 33 (463,719)

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budgetary decomposition, crises, panel analysis

29.

Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-)Significance

REM Working Paper 016-2017
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 29 Nov 2017
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 29 (482,903)

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fiscal regimes, FTPL, panel data, panel VAR, panel stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, global financial crisis

30.

Fiscal Activism and Price Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 04/2017/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 23 Jan 2017
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 27 (493,401)

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volatility, fiscal policy, inflation, GARCH, Consensus Forecasts

31.

Shifting the Beveridge Curve: What Affects Labor Market Matching?

IMF Working Paper No. 16/93
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 09 Dec 2016
Elva Bova, João Tovar Jalles and Christina Elisabeth Kolerus
Independent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and University of Mannheim - Center for Doctoral Studies in Economics and Management (CDSEM)
Downloads 27 (493,401)

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Labor markets, Labor supply, Labor demand, Unemployment, Labor market characteristics, Econometric models, Time series, vacancies, unemployment, employment protection legislation, cointegration, breaks, probit

32.

Markups’ Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Demand and Supply Shocks

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP08/2015/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 08 May 2015
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 26 (498,891)

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Blanchard-Quah, mark-up, VAR, impulse response function, local projection

33.

Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers’ Characteristics

REM Working Paper 072-2019
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 09 Mar 2019
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 25 (504,378)

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sovereign ratings, ordered probit, sovereign debt, panel data, principal components

34.

Globalization, Democracy and Development

NBER Working Paper No. w19575
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 25 Oct 2013
Jorge Braga de Macedo, Luis Brites Pereira, Joaquim Oliveira Martins and João Tovar Jalles
New University of Lisbon - Faculty of Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics, OECD and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 25 (504,378)

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35.

Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison

REM Working Paper 080-2018
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 29 May 2019
Antonio Afonso, João Tovar Jalles and Ana Venâncio
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa
Downloads 23 (515,796)

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government spending efficiency, public sector performance, tax structure, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Malmquist indices, non-parametric estimation, panel data, OECD

36.

Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data

IMF Working Paper No. 18/85
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 22 May 2018
Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto and Gewei Wang
The National Academies - National Academy of Sciences (NAS), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and University of Nottingham
Downloads 19 (539,523)

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Greenhouse gas emissions, Gross domestic product, China, Emissions, Environmental Okun's Law, Kuznets Curve, China, Provinces

37.

Fiscal Stabilization and Growth: Evidence from Industry-Level Data for Advanced and Developing Economies

IMF Working Paper No. 17/198
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 21 Mar 2018
Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri and João Tovar Jalles
Yonsei University, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 19 (539,523)

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Financial data, Fiscal stabilization, Fiscal stabilization, Total factor productivity, Fiscal policy, Developed countries, Developing countries, Economic growth, industry-level data, time varying coefficients, growth, technologies of production, General

38.

Budgetary Decomposition and Yield Spreads

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 05/2016/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 08 Jan 2016
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 19 (539,523)

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fiscal components, bond yields, Great Recession, PVAR, impulse responses

39.

The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP 16/2015/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 25 Nov 2015
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 19 (539,523)
Citation 1

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price level, yields, Ricardian regimes, SURE, local projection, impulse response function

40.

Fiscal Episodes, Technological Progress and Market Power

ISEG Economics Department Working Paper No. WP09/2015/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 16 Jul 2015
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 18 (545,574)

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imperfect competition, TFP, fiscal consolidation, local projection, business cycle, impulse response functions, GMM

41.

The Cyclicality of Education, Health, and Social Security Government Spending

ISEG Economics Working Paper No. 30/2012/DE/UECE
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 25 Nov 2012
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 18 (545,574)

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business cycle, output gap, functional spending, panel analysis

42.

Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts’ Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area

REM Working Paper 042-2018
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 14 Jul 2018
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 16 (557,426)

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43.

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

IMF Working Paper No. 18/39
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 27 Aug 2019
Zidong An, João Tovar Jalles and Prakash Loungani
International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 15 (563,565)

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Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency, information rigidity, forecast comparison, recession year, current-year, forecast, forecaster, emerge economy

44.

Stock Flow Adjustments in Sovereign Debt Dynamics: The Role of Fiscal Frameworks

REM Working Paper 066-2019
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 04 Feb 2019
Antonio Afonso and João Tovar Jalles
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 12 (582,708)

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Government Debt, Budget Deficit, Structural Deficit, Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint, Fiscal Rules, Panel Data, System GMM, Filtering

45.

Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union

The World Economy, Vol. 42, Issue 2, pp. 320-348, 2019
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 12 Feb 2019
António Afonso, Florence Huart, João Tovar Jalles and Piotr Stanek
ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa, Université de Lille I, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and New University of Lisbon - Nova School of Business and Economics
Downloads 1 (664,566)
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cointegration, current account, error correction, exports, imports, net foreign assets, structural breaks, unit roots

46.

Like Father Like Sons? The Cost of Sovereign Defaults in Reduced Credit to the Private Sector

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9303
Number of pages: 67 Posted: 01 Feb 2013
Rui Esteves and João Tovar Jalles
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Downloads 1 (664,566)
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Credit Rationing, Foreign Investment, Pre-1914, Sovereign Default