Andreas Graefe

Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research

Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1

Munich, Bavaria 80539

Germany

http://www.andreas-graefe.org

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

26

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CITATIONS
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26

Scholarly Papers (26)

1.

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54, Revised and extended version of a paper presented at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2011 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 437 (48,916)
Citation 4

Abstract:

election forecasting, combining, prediction markets, polls, econometric models, expert judgment

2.

Who Should Be Nominated to Run in the 2012 Presidential Election? Long-Term Forecasts Based on Candidates'’ Biographies

APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 391 (58,548)

Abstract:

elections, forecast, Obama, biography, index method

3.

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Forthcoming, Public Opinion Quarterly
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Oct 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2014
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 174 (129,117)

Abstract:

combining forecasts, Iowa Electronic Markets, election forecasting, forecast accuracy, econometric models, FiveThirtyEight

4.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Aug 2008 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2012
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 144 (164,650)
Citation 6

Abstract:

index method, unit weighting, experience table, presidential election, accuracy

5.
Downloads 68 (201,747)
Citation 1

Forecasting

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 68 (287,517)
Citation 1

Abstract:

forecasting, prediction, projection, prognosis, principles

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 86 (249,741)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Electoral Studies (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 02 May 2013
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 10 (522,304)
Citation 1

Abstract:

Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

7.

Candidates' Personality and the Outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 06 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 68 (212,559)

Abstract:

election forecasting, Big Five, forecast accuracy, presidential elections, personality perceptions

8.

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 May 2013 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics and Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics
Downloads 63 (238,938)

Abstract:

combining forecasts, equal weights, election forecasting

9.

Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors

Journal of Business Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 17 Aug 2013
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 48 (293,568)

Abstract:

equal weights, index method, econometric models, presidential election forecasting, Moral Algebra

10.

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

Journal of Business Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 47 (300,815)
Citation 7

Abstract:

econometric model, election forecasts, forecast accuracy, index model, political forecasting political marketing, unit-weighting

11.

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business School
Downloads 46 (288,908)

Abstract:

Econometrics, election forecasting, equalizing, equal weights, index method, political economy models, regression

12.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 45 (267,035)

Abstract:

combining forecasts, forecast accuracy, Iowa Electronic Markets, FiveThirtyEight, econometric models, election forecasting

13.

German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

Forthcoming, German Politics (subject to changes)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 09 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Feb 2015
Andreas Graefe
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 23 (308,501)

Abstract:

Election forecasting, combining forecasts, PollyVote, accuracy

14.

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 22 (428,337)
Citation 4

Abstract:

econometric model, forecasting, elections

15.

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 15 (205,771)

Abstract:

analytics, bias, big data, causality, checklists, combining, elections, index method, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, uncertainty

16.

Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 10 (480,318)
Citation 2

Abstract:

bio-index, forecasting, index methods, index models

17.

Forecasting Principles

M. Lovric, International Encyclopedia on Statistical Science (2010)
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 9 (413,605)

Abstract:

forecasting, principles

18.

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 9 (333,938)

Abstract:

cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

19.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of West Florida and University of Central Oklahoma
Downloads 8 (485,467)
Citation 1

Abstract:

20.

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 4 (392,000)

Abstract:

advertising effectiveness, combining forecasts, creativity, index method, profitability, variable weighting

21.

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research
Downloads 3 (392,000)

Abstract:

advertising, combining forecasts, copy testing, expertise, intentions, judgmental forecasting

22.

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 14 Dec 2016
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 0 (352,465)

Abstract:

PollyVote, 2016 Presidential Election, Forecast

23.

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research, University of West Florida, University of Central Oklahoma and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

24.

Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 03 Mar 2010
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

forecast accuracy, group decision-making, method comparison, satisfaction, combining

25.

Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence

Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 71-91, 2008
Posted: 24 Sep 2008
Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt
Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Abstract:

26.

Towards Pervasive Computing in Health Care - A Literature Review

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 26
Posted: 23 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2008
Carsten Orwat, Andreas Graefe and Timm Faulwasser
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research and University of Magdeburg

Abstract: