Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences

Sandstrasse 9

Munich, Bavaria 80337

Germany

http://www.andreas-graefe.org

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

28

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CITATIONS
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26

Scholarly Papers (28)

1.

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54, Revised and extended version of a paper presented at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2011 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 484 (56,263)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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election forecasting, combining, prediction markets, polls, econometric models, expert judgment

2.

Who Should Be Nominated to Run in the 2012 Presidential Election? Long-Term Forecasts Based on Candidates'’ Biographies

APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 414 (68,089)

Abstract:

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elections, forecast, Obama, biography, index method

3.

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Forthcoming, Public Opinion Quarterly
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Oct 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2014
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 212 (140,419)

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combining forecasts, Iowa Electronic Markets, election forecasting, forecast accuracy, econometric models, FiveThirtyEight

4.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Aug 2008 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2012
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 152 (189,004)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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index method, unit weighting, experience table, presidential election, accuracy

5.

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 142 (199,794)

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analytics, bias, big data, causality, checklists, combining, elections, index method, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, uncertainty

6.
Downloads 76 (213,158)
Citation 1

Forecasting

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 76 (310,620)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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forecasting, prediction, projection, prognosis, principles

7.

Candidates' Personality and the Outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 06 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 113 (238,163)

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election forecasting, Big Five, forecast accuracy, presidential elections, personality perceptions

8.

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 May 2013 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics and Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics
Downloads 103 (254,150)

Abstract:

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combining forecasts, equal weights, election forecasting

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 91 (277,776)
Citation 1

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Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Electoral Studies (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 02 May 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 10 (591,291)
Citation 1

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Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

10.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 82 (293,974)

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combining forecasts, forecast accuracy, Iowa Electronic Markets, FiveThirtyEight, econometric models, election forecasting

11.

Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors

Journal of Business Research, 68(8), 1792-1799
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 17 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 19 Oct 2017
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 75 (309,755)

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equal weights, index method, econometric models, presidential election forecasting, Moral Algebra

12.

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business School
Downloads 72 (317,051)

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Econometrics, election forecasting, equalizing, equal weights, index method, political economy models, regression

13.

German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

Forthcoming, German Politics (subject to changes)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 09 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Feb 2015
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 67 (329,681)

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Election forecasting, combining forecasts, PollyVote, accuracy

14.

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

Journal of Business Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 64 (337,622)
Citation 7

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econometric model, election forecasts, forecast accuracy, index model, political forecasting political marketing, unit-weighting

15.

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 59 (351,559)

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cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

16.

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 14 Dec 2016
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 58 (354,547)

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PollyVote, 2016 Presidential Election, Forecast

17.

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 46 (392,994)

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advertising, combining forecasts, copy testing, expertise, intentions, judgmental forecasting

18.

Forecasting Principles

M. Lovric, International Encyclopedia on Statistical Science (2010)
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 41 (411,027)

Abstract:

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forecasting, principles

19.

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of South Australia - UniSA Business School, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 36 (430,704)

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advertising effectiveness, combining forecasts, creativity, index method, profitability, variable weighting

20.

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (447,375)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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econometric model, forecasting, elections

21.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 21 (503,951)

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combining forecasts, damping, equalizing, elections, golden rule of forecasting, index method, shrinkage

22.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of West Florida and University of Central Oklahoma
Downloads 19 (515,320)
Citation 1

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23.

Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 16 (532,358)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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bio-index, forecasting, index methods, index models

24.

Accuracy Gains from Conservative Forecasting: Tests Using Variations of 19 Econometric Models to Predict 154 Elections in 10 Countries

PLoS ONE 14 (1): e0209850. 2019
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jan 2019
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 2 (621,053)

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25.

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of West Florida, University of Central Oklahoma and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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26.

Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 03 Mar 2010
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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forecast accuracy, group decision-making, method comparison, satisfaction, combining

27.

Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence

Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 71-91, 2008
Posted: 24 Sep 2008
Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

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28.

Towards Pervasive Computing in Health Care - A Literature Review

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 26
Posted: 23 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2008
Carsten Orwat, Andreas Graefe and Timm Faulwasser
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg

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