The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies

61 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2007

See all articles by Arnaud Mehl

Arnaud Mehl

European Central Bank (ECB)

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Date Written: December 20, 2006


This paper investigates the extent to which the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts domestic inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and euro area yield curves help to predict. It finds that the domestic yield curve in emerging economies contains in-sample information even after controlling for inflation and growth persistence, at both short and long forecast horizons, and that it often improves out-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the US and euro area yield curves also contain in- and out-of-sample information for future inflation and growth in emerging economies. In particular, for emerging economies with exchange rates pegged to the US dollar, the US yield curve is often found to be a better predictor than the domestic curves and to causally explain their movements. This suggests that monetary policy changes and short-term interest rate pass-through are key drivers of international financial linkages through movements at the low end of the yield curve.

Keywords: emerging economies, yield curve, forecasting, international linkages, emerging economies, yield curve, forecasting

Suggested Citation

Mehl, Arnaud, The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies (December 20, 2006). BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 18/2006. Available at SSRN: or

Arnaud Mehl (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314

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