The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Explaining Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections

35 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2007

See all articles by Christian R. Grose

Christian R. Grose

University of Southern California

Bruce I. Oppenheimer

Vanderbilt University - Department of Political Science

Abstract

Although partisan swing is often assumed to be uniform across congressional districts, our analysis of the 2006 House elections demonstrates that systematic variation exists. In addition to incumbency status, partisanship, spending, and scandal, we find that variation in the local salience of national issues across districts affected the vote shift. Notably, partisan swing in Republican districts proved highly sensitive to the number of Iraq war deaths from that district and, to a lesser degree, to the roll-call vote of Republican House members on the war resolution. These findings have implications for theories of anticipatory representation, retrospective voting, and electoral accountability.

This article is forthcoming in the Legislative Studies Quarterly, 32:4 November 2007.

Keywords: iraq, congress, elections, partisan swing, casualties, war, responsible party government, political parties, representation

Suggested Citation

Grose, Christian R. and Oppenheimer, Bruce I., The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Explaining Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1003422 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1003422

Christian R. Grose

University of Southern California ( email )

Von KleinSmid Center, 327
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.christiangrose.com

Bruce I. Oppenheimer (Contact Author)

Vanderbilt University - Department of Political Science ( email )

VU Station B #351817
Nashville, TN 37235-1817
United States
615-322-6232 (Phone)

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
281
Abstract Views
1,876
rank
106,829
PlumX Metrics