Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Ratio of Banks in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Uruguay
45 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2007
Date Written: July 30, 2007
This paper examines the determinants of the non-performing loans ratio of Uruguayan banks and studies the existence of cointegration relationships between this ratio and a set of macroeconomic variables.
Authors find evidence of the existence of a relationship between non-performing loans ratio, variation of wages measured in dollars and interest rates. The paper concludes that lower wages and higher rates lead to a higher default ratio in the long term. This conclusion emphasizes the importance of the exchange-rate risk over the credit risk in such economies with dollarized banking systems.
The estimated model is then used to simulate the effects of several hypothetical stress scenarios on defaulted loans ratio. As a result of this exercise, the paper concludes that the Uruguayan banking system presents nowadays a more solid position than during the period before the 2002 crisis.
Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.
Keywords: morosidad, dolarización, cointegración, Uruguay, non-performing loans ratio, dolarization, cointegration
JEL Classification: E32, E44, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation