Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach

39 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Helmy M. Eid

Helmy M. Eid

Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation - SWERI

Samia M. El-Marsafawy

Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation - SWERI

Samiha A. Ouda

Agricultural Research Center

Date Written: July 1, 2007

Abstract

This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties.

Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Economics & Policies, Crops & Crop Management Systems, Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems, Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions

Suggested Citation

Eid, Helmy M. and El-Marsafawy, Samia M. and Ouda, Samiha A., Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach (July 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4293. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1004407

Helmy M. Eid

Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation - SWERI

9 El - Gammah St.
El - Giza
Egypt

Samia M. El-Marsafawy (Contact Author)

Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation - SWERI ( email )

9 El - Gammah St.
El - Giza
Egypt

Samiha A. Ouda

Agricultural Research Center ( email )

9 El - Gammah St.
El-Giza, El-Giza
Egypt
202 0122 500 9628 (Phone)

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