A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland

62 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme; Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Date Written: August 1, 2007

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Economics & Policies, Global Environment Facility, Common Property Resource Development, Crops & Crop Management Systems

Suggested Citation

Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Mendelsohn, Robert O., A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland (August 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4305. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1005544

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya (Contact Author)

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

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