The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach

25 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by David J. Maddison

David J. Maddison

University College London - Department of Economics

Marita Manley

Government of the United Kingdom - Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme; Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Date Written: August 1, 2007

Abstract

This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Keywords: Environmental Economics & Policies, Climate Change, Common Property Resource Development, Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems, Global Environment Facility

Suggested Citation

Maddison, David J. and Manley, Marita and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach (August 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4306. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1005545

David J. Maddison (Contact Author)

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Marita Manley

Government of the United Kingdom - Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) ( email )

United Kingdom

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

New York, NY 10017
United States
2129066843 (Phone)

Yale University - School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ( email )

New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
353
Abstract Views
1,500
rank
83,634
PlumX Metrics