Imf Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting

29 Pages Posted: 23 Aug 2007

See all articles by Eugenio Cerutti

Eugenio Cerutti

International Monetary Fund (IMF); Johns Hopkins University

Date Written: July 2007

Abstract

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.

Keywords: Working Paper, Use of Fund resources, Extended arrangements, Stand-by arrangements

Suggested Citation

Cerutti, Eugenio, Imf Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting (July 2007). IMF Working Paper No. 07/152, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1007901

Eugenio Cerutti (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

Baltimore, MD 21218
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
48
Abstract Views
664
PlumX Metrics