The Global Extent of the Great Moderation
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 74, Issue 4, pages 493-509
Posted: 20 Aug 2007 Last revised: 6 Jul 2012
Date Written: December 28, 2010
In 2008 the US financial crisis spilled over into a number of other economies causing declines in GDP across the world. Yet the decades preceding the current downturn had been a period of unprecedented stability for the US economy. This paper examines annual data for 98 countries over the period 1961-2007 and finds that lower GDP growth volatility in the period preceding the current crisis was not confined to the US. It is detected in a number of developed and developing countries, suggesting that a reduction in volatility in this period was a more general development.
Keywords: GDP growth volatility, structural changes, the Great Moderation
JEL Classification: E32, F41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation