Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

HKIMR Working Paper No. 18/2002

38 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2007  

Andrew Kenan Rose

University of California - Haas School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2002

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard gravity model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

Keywords: empirical, bilateral, panel, gravity, GATT, GSP, international, multilateral, panel

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Rose, Andrew Kenan, Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (October 2002). HKIMR Working Paper No. 18/2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1009445

Andrew Kenan Rose (Contact Author)

University of California - Haas School of Business ( email )

Berkeley, CA 94720
United States
510-642-6609 (Phone)
510-642-4700 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

Paper statistics

Downloads
216
Rank
73,418
Abstract Views
1,612