Income and Vote Choice in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election

14 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2007

See all articles by Andrew Gelman

Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Jeronimo Cortina

University of Houston - Department of Political Science

Date Written: July 13, 2006

Abstract

Using multilevel modeling of state-level economic data and individual-level exit poll data from the 2000 Mexican presidential election, we find that income has a stronger effect in predicting the vote for the conservative party in poorer states than in richer states - a pattern that has also been found in recent U.S. elections. In addition (and unlike in the U.S.), richer states on average tend to support the conservative party at higher rates than poorer states. Our findings are consistent with the 2006 Mexican election, which showed a profound divide between rich and poor states. Income is an important predictor of the vote both at the individual and the state levels.

Suggested Citation

Gelman, Andrew and Cortina, Jeronimo, Income and Vote Choice in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Election (July 13, 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1010104 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1010104

Andrew Gelman (Contact Author)

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science ( email )

New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-4883 (Phone)
212-663-2454 (Fax)

Jeronimo Cortina

University of Houston - Department of Political Science ( email )

TX 77204-3011
United States

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