Verbal Autopsy Methods with Multiple Causes of Death

Statistical Science, Forthcoming

17 Pages Posted: 20 Dec 2007

See all articles by Gary King

Gary King

Harvard University

Ying Lu

University of Colorado - Departments of Sociology and Political Science

Abstract

Verbal autopsy procedures are widely used for estimating cause-specific mortality in areas without medical death certification. Data on symptoms reported by caregivers along with the cause of death are collected from a medical facility, and the cause of death distribution is estimated in the population where only symptom data are available. Current approaches analyze only one cause at a time, involve assumptions judged difficult or impossible to satisfy, and require expensive, time consuming, or unreliable physician reviews, expert algorithms, or parametric statistical models. By generalizing current approaches to analyze multiple causes, we show how most of the difficult assumptions underlying existing methods can be dropped. These generalizations also make physician review, expert algorithms, and parametric statistical assumptions unnecessary. With theoretical results, and empirical analyses in data from China and Tanzania, we illustrate the accuracy of this approach. While no method of analyzing verbal autopsy data, including the more computationally intensive approach offered here, can give accurate estimates in all circumstances, the procedure offered is conceptually simpler, less expensive, more general, as or more replicable, and easier to use in practice than existing approaches. As a companion to this paper, we also offer easy-to-use software that implements the methods discussed herein.

Suggested Citation

King, Gary and Lu, Ying, Verbal Autopsy Methods with Multiple Causes of Death. Statistical Science, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1012704

Gary King (Contact Author)

Harvard University ( email )

1737 Cambridge St.
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-500-7570 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://gking.harvard.edu

Ying Lu

University of Colorado - Departments of Sociology and Political Science ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO CO 80309
United States
303-492-7030 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://NowSpace.Colorado.edu

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