Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns
John R. Lott Jr.
Crime Prevention Research Center
David B. Mustard
University of Georgia - C. Herman and Mary Virginia Terry College of Business - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); University of Georgia Law School
Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1997.
Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes and it appears to produce no increase in accidental deaths. If those states which did not have right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, approximately 1,570 murders; 4,177 rapes; and over 60,000 aggravated assaults would have been avoided yearly. On the other hand, consistent with the notion of criminals responding to incentives, we find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth and where the probabilities of contact between the criminal and the victim are minimal. The largest population counties where the deterrence effect on violent crimes is greatest are where the substitution effect into property crimes is highest. Concealed handguns also have their greatest deterrent effect in the highest crime counties. Higher arrest and conviction rates consistently and dramatically reduce the crime rate. Consistent with other recent work, the results imply that increasing the arrest rate, independent of the probability of eventual conviction, imposes a significant penalty on criminals. The estimated annual gain from allowing concealed handguns is at least $6.214 billion.
JEL Classification: K14
Date posted: April 17, 1998