27 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2007 Last revised: 2 Oct 2008
In 1991, Bryant and Eckard estimated the annual probability that a cartel would be detected by the US Federal authorities, conditional on being detected, to be at most between 13% and 17%. In this paper, we develop a general stochastic detection model so as to describe the dynamic that governs the number of cartels alive at a given time. On the basis of this model, we estimated the same probability as Bryant and Eckard, 15 years later, over a European sample and we found an annual probability that falls between 12.9% and 13.3%. Our estimate is based on detection durations, calculated from data reported for all the cartels convicted by the European Commission from 1969 to the present date, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and detection of cartels.
Notes: Downloadable document is in French.
Keywords: Cartels, duration, analysis, birth and death process
JEL Classification: L41, C34, C41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Combe, Emmanuel and Monnier, Constance and Legal, Renaud, Cartels: The Probability of Getting Caught in the European Union. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1015061 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015061