Gubernatorial Coattails and Mexican Congressional Elections Since 1979
34 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2007 Last revised: 17 Jan 2011
Date Written: July 7, 2006
Mexican congressional elections between 1979 and 2009 are examined to determine if successful candidates for governor have coattails helping candidates in the same ticket get elected to higher office, and if so to what extent. Presidential coattails are also examined for reference. Regression estimates reveal that state parties transferred, on average, 42% of their electoral success in the gubernatorial quest to those competing for Congress in a concurrent election. Depending on which of the major parties we look at, gubernatorial coattails in Mexico are about two-fifths (for the PRI) and one-tenth (for the PAN) shorter than presidential ones; the left's are two-fifths larger. Local forces appear to move Mexican congressional campaigns and elections as much as national forces since at least 1979, raising questions as to how new is the new federalism in Mexico.
Keywords: congressional elections, coattails, federalism, Mexico
JEL Classification: D72, C23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation