Assessing Budget Support with Statistical Impact Evaluation: A Methodological Proposal

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2007-075/2

32 Pages Posted: 25 Sep 2007

See all articles by Chris Elbers

Chris Elbers

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics; Tinbergen Institute - Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA)

Jan Willem Gunning

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics; Tinbergen Institute; Tinbergen Institute - Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA)

Kobus de Hoop

Tinbergen Institute

Date Written: September 2007

Abstract

Increasingly both donor agencies and recipient governments want to assess the effectiveness of aid. Unfortunately, existing methods for impact evaluation are designed for the evaluation of homogeneous interventions ('projects') where those with and without 'treatment' can be compared. However, when assessing the effectiveness of sector aid or general budget support one is concerned about the impact of numerous heterogeneous interventions; there is then no obvious control group. The lack of a credible methodology for such high level evaluations is a serious constraint in the debate on aid effectiveness. We propose a method of statistical impact evaluation in situations with heterogeneous interventions, an extension of the double differencing method often used in project evaluations. We illustrate its feasibility with an example for the education sector in Zambia.

Keywords: Impact Evaluation, Budget Support, Aid Effectiveness, Education, Africa, Zambia

JEL Classification: F35, H43, N37, O10

Suggested Citation

Elbers, Chris and Gunning, Jan Willem and de Hoop, Kobus, Assessing Budget Support with Statistical Impact Evaluation: A Methodological Proposal (September 2007). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1016945 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1016945

Chris Elbers (Contact Author)

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081HV
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute - Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA) ( email )

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Jan Willem Gunning

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081HV
Netherlands
+ 310 20 444 6141 (Phone)
+ 310 20 444 6004 (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute - Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA) ( email )

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Kobus De Hoop

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

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