Predicting Default Rates: A Forecasting Model for Moody's Issuer-Based Default Rates
20 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2007
Date Written: August 1999
This study introduces a new model for predicting future default rates. The model leverages off of the statistical relationships underlying Moody's trailing 12-month issuer-based default rate - a widely monitored indicator of corporate credit quality - to offer a superior alternative to previous forecasting techniques. The model incorporates the effect on default rates of changes in the universe of issuers, both in terms of their credit ratings and the time since they first came to market (the "aging effect"), and of macroeconomic conditions as measured by the industrial production index and interest rate variables.
Keywords: default probability, credit risk, credit ratings
JEL Classification: C51, G20, G28
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation