Measuring Synchronicity and Co-Movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area
31 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2007
Date Written: October 2007
We develop multivariate measures of synchronicity and co-movement of business cycles. In addition to synchronicity, the co-movement measure takes differences between cycle amplitudes into account that have been overlooked in most previous studies. We apply the new measures to the euro area. Synchronicity and co-movement for the region as a whole do not exhibit a clear upward tendency. Although several countries saw the similarity of their business cycle vis-a-vis the euro area reference cycle increase, national business cycles remain fairly diverse. Changes in business cycle amplitudes cause most of the observed change in cycle co-movement.
Keywords: business cycles, synchronisation, concordance, co-movement, cycle amplitudes, euro area
JEL Classification: E32, F02, F42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation