Evaluating the Behavioral Performance of Alternative Logit Models: An Application to Corporate Takeovers Research

28 Pages Posted: 15 Oct 2007

See all articles by Stewart Jones

Stewart Jones

University of Sydney – School of Business

David A. Hensher

University of Sydney Business School

Abstract

Econometric models involving a discrete outcome dependent variable abound in the finance and accounting literatures. However, much of the literature to date utilizes a basic or standard logit model. Capitalizing on recent developments in the discrete choice literature, we examine three advanced (or non-IID) logit models, namely: nested logit, mixed logit and latent class MNL. Using an illustration from corporate takeovers research, we compare the explanatory and predictive performance of each class of advanced model relative to the standard model. We find that in all cases the more advanced logit model structures, which correct for the highly restrictive IID and IIA conditions, provide significantly greater explanatory power than standard logit. Mixed logit and latent class MNL models exhibited the highest overall predictive accuracy on a holdout sample, while the standard logit model performed the worst. Moreover, the analysis of marginal effects of all models indicates that use of advanced models can lead to more insightful and behaviorally meaningful interpretations of the role and influence of explanatory variables and parameter estimates in model estimation. The results of this paper have implications for the use of more optimal logit structures in future research and practice.

Suggested Citation

Jones, Stewart and Hensher, David A., Evaluating the Behavioral Performance of Alternative Logit Models: An Application to Corporate Takeovers Research. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 34, Nos. 7-8, pp. 1193-1220, September/October 2007. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1020815 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2007.02049.x

Stewart Jones (Contact Author)

University of Sydney – School of Business ( email )

Cnr. of Codrington and Rose Streets
Sydney, NSW 2006
Australia

David A. Hensher

University of Sydney Business School ( email )

Cnr. of Codrington and Rose Streets
Sydney, NSW 2006
Australia
+ 61 2 9351 0071 (Phone)
+ 61 2 9351 0088 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.its.usyd.edu.au/about_itls/staff/davidh.asp

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