The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

46 Pages Posted: 15 Oct 2007 Last revised: 30 Mar 2012

See all articles by Julian di Giovanni

Julian di Giovanni

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE); CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Jay Shambaugh

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics; Georgetown University - Department of Strategy/Economics/Ethics/Public Policy

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2007

Abstract

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.

Suggested Citation

di Giovanni, Julian and Shambaugh, Jay, The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime (October 2007). NBER Working Paper No. w13467. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1021221

Julian Di Giovanni (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business ( email )

Barcelona
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Jay Shambaugh

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics ( email )

309 Rockefeller Hall
Hanover, NH 03755
United States
603-646-9345 (Phone)
603-646-2122 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~economic/faculty/Shambaugh/

Georgetown University - Department of Strategy/Economics/Ethics/Public Policy

Washington, DC 20057
United States

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