Costly Inflation Misperceptions
University of Heidelberg Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 455
19 Pages Posted: 23 Nov 2007
Date Written: October 2007
Abstract
One of the consequences of the euro changeover in 2002 was that for a period of several years people considerably overestimated actual inflation. The goal of this paper is to study whether misperceptions of this kind may have real effects, that is, whether they induce people to alter their behaviour. We also discuss the question how far the euro changeover and the ensuing discussion about price stability contributed to the recession that followed the changeover. Looking at the German restaurant sector, we find that people's misperceptions can have significant negative effects. The contraction this sector experienced in the months after the changeover was too pronounced to be explained by normal business cycle movements. We provide a discussion about the causes of these misperceptions and how to avoid them in future changeovers.
Keywords: euro changeover, perceived inflation
JEL Classification: D12, E21, C22
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis
By Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler
-
Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices
By Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow
-
Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
By N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
-
Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
By N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
-
By Varadarajan V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, ...
-
Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money
By Laurence Ball and David H. Romer
-
By Jordi Galí, Mark Gertler, ...
-
Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?