Dynamic Flood Modelling: Combining Hurst and Gumbel's Approach
22 Pages Posted: 25 Oct 2007
Date Written: August 11, 2006
When working on river floods - annual river levels maxima -, two approaches are usually considered: one inspired from Emil Gumbel where annual maxima are supposed to be i.i.d. and distributed according to Gumbel's distribution, and one inspired from Edwin Hurst where annual maxima are strongly dependent, and exhibit long range memory. This paper tries to solve this apparent paradox by deriving a dynamic model inspired from some a financial model, which does not consider only annual maxima but threshold exceedances. It studies the implications of such a paradox in terms of return period -a notion valid as long as the data are i.i.d - and of extremal events.
Keywords: frequency analysis, bivariate point process, ACD models, flood
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